Brian5671 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Euro sagged southward with the biggest amts-yesterday's 12z had 3-4 inches of rain for most of us, now it's about 2 inches with 1-2 further morth. The 4 inch amts are now in the DELMARVA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Euro sagged southward with the biggest amts-yesterday's 12z had 3-4 inches of rain for most of us, now it's about 2 inches with 1-2 further morth. The 4 inch amts are now in the DELMARVA Yeah, the SE Ridge is slightly weaker than 24 hours ago in the forecasts. So the the phase is a little slower with 2 more distinct areas of low pressure. We could still see our first flakes of the season. New run old run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the SE Ridge is slightly weaker than 24 hours ago in the forecasts. So the the phase is a little slower with 2 more distinct areas of low pressure. We could still see our first flakes of the season. New run old run Temps in the mid to upper 30s. Maybe our 1st flakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Temps in the mid to upper 30s. Maybe our 1st flakes? May 9th to October 30th would be the new record for fewest days between 2 different seasonal traces of snow in the same year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 21 minutes ago, bluewave said: May 9th to October 30th would be the new record for fewest days between 2 different seasonal traces of snow in the same year. 6z euro even flatter Fast flow might win out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 18 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 6z euro even flatter Fast flow might win out here pushed the snow line about 50 miles north (in line with UKMET) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: pushed the snow line about 50 miles north (in line with UKMET) Yep Snow can wait here lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 14 hours ago, LibertyBell said: wow Central Park didn't reach freezing in October 2011 despite getting three inches of snow?! I dont think LGA got any in that storm? yup..I remember getting down to about 34, with 4" of snow/slop on grassy surfaces, trees etc. with an inch or 2 on pavement at times when it came down really hard. The heavy snow was relentless that's the only way it managed to acclumate. I couldn't believe my eyes, especially the tress mostly still full of green leaves covered in snow. Then it was gone soon after it stopped. It seem like over a foot of snow fell if it were able to all stick. One of the more surreal weather experiences, before I knew what the decade ahead had in store. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: pushed the snow line about 50 miles north (in line with UKMET) Weaker storm-less cold air and dynamics from heavy precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Weaker storm-less cold air and dynamics from heavy precip. New NAM looks similar to last night's Euro as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 NAM is 2”+ of heavy rainfall with some wet flakes mixing in at the very end. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Fast mover-looks done by Friday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Euro has snow just inland 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 In the lower elevations of the Catskills I can't bargain myself seeing more than maybe a few slushy inches before things end Friday morning. Nonetheless flakes are a win this early on, solid advisory event setting up for elevations 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 The coast has a chance of ending as flakes but no accumulations unless this storm pulls a Oct 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 3 hours ago, crossbowftw3 said: In the lower elevations of the Catskills I can't bargain myself seeing more than maybe a few slushy inches before things end Friday morning. Nonetheless flakes are a win this early on, solid advisory event setting up for elevations I think you and @snywx will be pleasantly surprised 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 5 hours ago, crossbowftw3 said: In the lower elevations of the Catskills I can't bargain myself seeing more than maybe a few slushy inches before things end Friday morning. Nonetheless flakes are a win this early on, solid advisory event setting up for elevations 1 hour ago, sferic said: I think you and @snywx will be pleasantly surprised I think flakes for all N of 84 on friday morning.. Accumulation will prob be for those above 750'. Anyone above 1500' like MSV could see some advisory snows. Still plenty of time for it to be a dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 The NHC wind probability map is showing ~20% chance for 40 mph 1-minute sustained winds, and ~5% for 60 mph for the nyc area. Seems a little high too me, unless the models have trending stronger with the wind potential. That combined with the 2-4" of rain might cause some issues 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 13 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said: The NHC wind probability map is showing ~20% chance for 40 mph 1-minute sustained winds, and ~5% for 60 mph for the nyc area. Seems a little high too me, unless the models have trending stronger with the wind potential. That combined with the 2-4" of rain might cause some issues 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Please see NHC and local NWS forecasts on Zeta associated wind and coastal flooding. Overall: modeling just doesn't seem to want to develop a significant trailer low near the NJ coast Friday morning due to waning structure of the current ejecting southern Rockies low aloft. This lessens chances of decent secondary Friday morning event...doesn't end it (in my mind) but doesn't look as good as days previous. Still a chance but not the likely solution. My expectation: If 4" rain were to occur, probably Ocean County southward. Otherwise possible 3" amounts or greater should be reserved for the region s of I80 including LI. Killer freeze I80 northward Friday evening-especially early Saturday, with a killer freeze possible most of the rest of our area except LI, NJ shore. Chance of a Low temp of 32 NYC Friday-Saturday appears much lower now and probably not happening. (00z/28 UK appears colder than the EC Friday-early Sat) As per prior Bluewave post---shortest period between Trace snow in NYC possible for Friday mid-late morning early afternoon. (Maybe a Trace of snow in the air next Monday Nov 2 as well?) Accumulative snow of 1-3" appears "possible" for high terrain N of I80, with even up to 1/4 inch near the city in NJ (grass-cars-roofs) but this possibility still has options for being less Gust 50 MPH possible e LI Friday morning-early afternoon but probably capped ~45 MPH (air temps 35-40F northerly flow advection over adjacent warm water near 60F) Minor coastal flooding seems probable with the Friday morning high tide NJ coast (did not check NY). Stevens and ETSS available guidance is a little higher than 2-3 days ago. Finally: To give us snow lovers hope...have added two graphics from the SPC SREF (plumes). You can decide what you like from these. I'm playing it conservative this morning. Maybe these means (Dark black line) will be right.... but am not convinced of that much. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 I have to learn not to get emotionally involved until storms are in progress. You'd think that after all these years of weenie weather watching I'd have learned but no... 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 hour ago, gravitylover said: I have to learn not to get emotionally involved until storms are in progress. You'd think that after all these years of weenie weather watching I'd have learned but no... LOL. In all honesty if this is happening to you and me(cant lie) will we survive come a month or two down the line?. good ol rainstorm, I’ll take that over nothing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 On 10/27/2020 at 5:56 AM, Ericjcrash said: Not exactly. They bumped up to 6-10 last minute after it changed over to snow quite a bit earlier than expected at the coast. it also ended earlier than expected. In the middle of the afternoon here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: it also ended earlier than expected. In the middle of the afternoon here I feel a lot of systems are usually in and out earlier than progged. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 11 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: I feel a lot of systems are usually in and out earlier than progged. Yeah thats why Jan 2016 was so special.....probably the largest snowfall I will ever see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 hour ago, Ericjcrash said: I feel a lot of systems are usually in and out earlier than progged. look at tomorrow's event-case in point-models keep ending it earlier and earlier-we're done by daybreak Friday-earlier in the week it went into Friday night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Models have shifted north with the low. Alot of rain incoming for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Models have shifted north with the low. Alot of rain incoming for the area. Euro has 2-3 inches of rain now for the entire area 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Zeta now up to 100 mph w/a pressure of 975mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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