dmillz25 Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I'm not sure, based on what I've been reading this is going to be a latitude based winter and it's best to be north of the CT shore to get good snows. I'd expect less than 20 inches of snow this season and anything more would be a bonus. After last year I think we wouldn’t mind that. I think we’ll get closer to 30” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 1 minute ago, dmillz25 said: After last year I think we wouldn’t mind that. I think we’ll get closer to 30” Yea, last year was like 11-12 minus the October snow, so if this is 12-13 compared to last year's 11-12 I dont think anyone will mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Yea, last year was like 11-12 minus the October snow, so if this is 12-13 compared to last year's 11-12 I dont think anyone will mind. If we get that big storm like in 12-13 i just hope its 40 miles west lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 1 minute ago, dmillz25 said: If we get that big storm like in 12-13 i just hope its 40 miles west lol Yessss, I hate it when it's raining here and snowing to our east that just seems like bizarro world lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 the sun is trying to come out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: the sun is trying to come out here Sun is out in Holbrook. Mostly cloudy though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 30, 2020 Author Share Posted October 30, 2020 2.43" storm total in springfield 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 17 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I hate these Boston vs NYC comparisons, people have to understand they're in a different league. It's like comparing a major league baseball team vs a minor league team lol. Of course the major league team is going to win 90% of the time. That all day snow in October must've been amazing though, how much did they get? I heard 6" just SW of Boston? Exactly! That’s why they avg so much more then us. Their latitude helps tremendously to tap the colder air 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: I hate these Boston vs NYC comparisons, people have to understand they're in a different league. It's like comparing a major league baseball team vs a minor league team lol. Of course the major league team is going to win 90% of the time. That all day snow in October must've been amazing though, how much did they get? I heard 6" just SW of Boston? I guess we’ll have to be satisfied with outdoing them when it comes to higher minimums. As always ..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 41 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Exactly! That’s why they avg so much more then us. Their latitude help tremendously to help tap the colder air The only difference is, there's always a higher league when it comes to weather ;-) Like Portland vs Boston, or Bangor vs Boston, etc. I wonder if there is a certain latitude where the difference is the most if you're north of it vs south of it? I know it's different every year, but on an average climate basis? Maybe it's 40 N? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 22 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: The only difference is, there's always a higher league when it comes to weather ;-) Like Portland vs Boston, or Bangor vs Boston, etc. I wonder if there is a certain latitude where the difference is the most if you're north of it vs south of it? I know it's different every year, but on an average climate basis? Maybe it's 40 N? I see it as maybe like the Little Giants where we can beat BOS if it’s a year like 15-16 where we get slammed from an El Niño snowstorm and they get edged or suppressed. I think we beat them in 2009-10 and 2003-04 too. It does happen 1x per decade or so on average. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Exactly! That’s why they avg so much more then us. Their latitude help tremendously to help tap the colder air Their longitude may help them even more than their latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 Just now, BucksCO_PA said: Their longitude may help them even more than their latitude. Portland ME isn’t far from Boston, a lot closer than we are and they average in the low 70s for snow vs 43” for Boston. The real winners are cities in ME and have been for the last decade or so. Nina patterns like these do very well up there too since the cold air eventually resists all the cutters and makes them redevelop in the Gulf of Maine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 Not sure if this was mentioned but looking at snow totals, it looks like upstate Ct. and Massachusetts had a lot of places with 4-6 inches of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 7 minutes ago, JoshSnow said: Did Central Park get a trace of snow today? No. The low there in CP prior to 4P was 38 at 1031AM. CP is tough... snowed and sleeted around parts of the 5 boroughs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 Max snowfalls in se NYS, ne PA and nw NJ were elevation dependent. Tomorrow I'll try and post a wrap up snowfall analysis. My guesstimate is, if you were above ~ 1000 feet elevation you had 1+" (n of I80). There is a massive LSR post... I'll show the locations of all the snow reports in our area... the more widespread 1-6" reports were N of I84 in w Ct, NYS. ...SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM THE FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...New Jersey... ...Morris County... Jefferson Twp 0.8 in 1120 AM 10/30 Trained Spotter ...Sussex County... 4 NNE Frankford Twp 2.5 in 1226 PM 10/30 Public 1 ENE Sparta 2.5 in 1145 AM 10/30 Public High Point 2.4 in 1005 AM 10/30 Public Sparta 0.6 in 0940 AM 10/30 Public Lafayette Twp 0.5 in 1130 AM 10/30 Trained Spotter 4 SW Wantage 0.3 in 0930 AM 10/30 Trained Spotter ...Warren County... 1 NE Allamuchy-Panther Valle 0.2 in 1059 AM 10/30 Trained Spotter ...Pennsylvania... ...Carbon County... 2 SSE Penn Forest Reservoir 0.6 in 1109 AM 10/30 Trained Spotter ...Monroe County... Mount Pocono 0.9 in 1025 AM 10/30 Trained Spotter Long Pond 0.3 in 0952 AM 10/30 Public && LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT CONNECTICUT ...Fairfield County... New Fairfield 2.0 130 PM 10/30 Trained Spotter Shelton 0.6 1100 AM 10/30 Trained Spotter Bridgeport T 100 PM 10/30 Co-Op Observer ...New Haven County... Hamden 0.7 130 PM 10/30 Trained Spotter 3 NNW Wallingford Ce 0.1 700 AM 10/30 CoCoRaHS Guilford T 257 PM 10/30 Co-Op Observer NEW JERSEY ...Passaic County... 1 SE Newfoundland T 800 AM 10/30 Charlotteburg COOP NEW YORK ...Orange County... Monroe 1.5 1145 AM 10/30 Trained Spotter ...Suffolk County... Stony Brook T 1219 PM 10/30 NWS Employee Mount Sinai T 1230 PM 10/30 Co-Op Observer Upton T 200 PM 10/30 NWS Office ...Westchester County... Katonah 0.2 900 AM 10/30 Trained Spotter 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 I didn’t see any frozen precip falling in Suffolk, Nassau, or Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 no jinx this year if Central park did not get any frozen precip...big winter on tap... 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 1 hour ago, Cfa said: I didn’t see any frozen precip falling in Suffolk, Nassau, or Queens. There was snow and sleet here, didn’t accumulate so it ended up as T, but I think most of us had some form of frozen precip today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 11 hours ago, wdrag said: Max snowfalls in se NYS, ne PA and nw NJ were elevation dependent. Tomorrow I'll try and post a wrap up snowfall analysis. My guesstimate is, if you were above ~ 1000 feet elevation you had 1+" (n of I80). There is a massive LSR post... I'll show the locations of all the snow reports in our area... the more widespread 1-6" reports were N of I84 in w Ct, NYS. ...SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM THE FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...New Jersey... ...Morris County... Jefferson Twp 0.8 in 1120 AM 10/30 Trained Spotter ...Sussex County... 4 NNE Frankford Twp 2.5 in 1226 PM 10/30 Public 1 ENE Sparta 2.5 in 1145 AM 10/30 Public High Point 2.4 in 1005 AM 10/30 Public Sparta 0.6 in 0940 AM 10/30 Public Lafayette Twp 0.5 in 1130 AM 10/30 Trained Spotter 4 SW Wantage 0.3 in 0930 AM 10/30 Trained Spotter ...Warren County... 1 NE Allamuchy-Panther Valle 0.2 in 1059 AM 10/30 Trained Spotter ...Pennsylvania... ...Carbon County... 2 SSE Penn Forest Reservoir 0.6 in 1109 AM 10/30 Trained Spotter ...Monroe County... Mount Pocono 0.9 in 1025 AM 10/30 Trained Spotter Long Pond 0.3 in 0952 AM 10/30 Public && LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT CONNECTICUT ...Fairfield County... New Fairfield 2.0 130 PM 10/30 Trained Spotter Shelton 0.6 1100 AM 10/30 Trained Spotter Bridgeport T 100 PM 10/30 Co-Op Observer ...New Haven County... Hamden 0.7 130 PM 10/30 Trained Spotter 3 NNW Wallingford Ce 0.1 700 AM 10/30 CoCoRaHS Guilford T 257 PM 10/30 Co-Op Observer NEW JERSEY ...Passaic County... 1 SE Newfoundland T 800 AM 10/30 Charlotteburg COOP NEW YORK ...Orange County... Monroe 1.5 1145 AM 10/30 Trained Spotter ...Suffolk County... Stony Brook T 1219 PM 10/30 NWS Employee Mount Sinai T 1230 PM 10/30 Co-Op Observer Upton T 200 PM 10/30 NWS Office ...Westchester County... Katonah 0.2 900 AM 10/30 Trained Spotter Add a .5" at 700 feet in Mahopac. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 11 hours ago, BucksCO_PA said: Their longitude may help them even more than their latitude. Couldn't agree more. For years growing up in NE Bergen County I was always envious of New England because of exactly the longitude. A few met/mods have mentioned it before (think it was Tip) but the fact that NE basically sticks out into the Atlantic relative to the general trajectory of the entire eastern seasboard helps tremendously with our snowfall chances from storms just like yesterday. Of course latitude plays a role but not as much as the longitude helps. We're just in the perfect position sometimes for strengthening/bombing low's that take the SW-NE trek off the coast. NJ/NYC would tend to be just a bit too far west when a storm's at 40/70 while due to the fact that NE sticks out into the Atlantic, we get the goods. That's why LI/Suffolk County has done so well recently as they could catch a little bit of what NE gets, albeit on the the southern side. Yesterday was one for the ages though and nobody was expecting what we got being it's so early in the season and being right on the water yet as I type, it looks like January outside with 4.5" of now and 27 degrees. Reminded me so much of the October 2011 storm in NNJ in terms of surprise. A lot less tree damage here yesterday than from that one though. Hopefully this year we can all get some good miller A's and storms that delivers the goods from Philly on northwards. DC is kind of a lost cause since 2010 (with the one exception being the 2016 storm) and will continue to be. They're just too far south and too warm these days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 On 10/26/2020 at 9:30 AM, Ericjcrash said: Lol. As expected, even as many parts of the region saw the coldest October temperatures in 32 years, temperatures were much warmer than those forecast by the Parallel GFS. This recent example is illustrative of the issue one may see on several occasions during the winter where this model shows extreme cold in the medium or extended range. Without support from the other guidance, one should be wary if this model is a cold outlier. The general idea of coming cold was good (and seen by the other guidance). The magnitude of the cold is where this model had its problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 13 hours ago, jm1220 said: I see it as maybe like the Little Giants where we can beat BOS if it’s a year like 15-16 where we get slammed from an El Niño snowstorm and they get edged or suppressed. I think we beat them in 2009-10 and 2003-04 too. It does happen 1x per decade or so on average. yea I want next winter to be a super strong el nino and get rid of all this la nina junk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 51 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: Couldn't agree more. For years growing up in NE Bergen County I was always envious of New England because of exactly the longitude. A few met/mods have mentioned it before (think it was Tip) but the fact that NE basically sticks out into the Atlantic relative to the general trajectory of the entire eastern seasboard helps tremendously with our snowfall chances from storms just like yesterday. Of course latitude plays a role but not as much as the longitude helps. We're just in the perfect position sometimes for strengthening/bombing low's that take the SW-NE trek off the coast. NJ/NYC would tend to be just a bit too far west when a storm's at 40/70 while due to the fact that NE sticks out into the Atlantic, we get the goods. That's why LI/Suffolk County has done so well recently as they could catch a little bit of what NE gets, albeit on the the southern side. Yesterday was one for the ages though and nobody was expecting what we got being it's so early in the season and being right on the water yet as I type, it looks like January outside with 4.5" of now and 27 degrees. Reminded me so much of the October 2011 storm in NNJ in terms of surprise. A lot less tree damage here yesterday than from that one though. Hopefully this year we can all get some good miller A's and storms that delivers the goods from Philly on northwards. DC is kind of a lost cause since 2010 (with the one exception being the 2016 storm) and will continue to be. They're just too far south and too warm these days. That's generally the case with eastern storm tracks, but dont you think that longitude (west) and elevation is better in la ninas because most storms tend to cut or be huggers? The WAR is stronger than it usually is. BTW I was shocked that 4" was your heaviest recorded October snow- you didn't get more than that there in October 2011? I remember reading parts of New England got 30"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 13 hours ago, jm1220 said: Portland ME isn’t far from Boston, a lot closer than we are and they average in the low 70s for snow vs 43” for Boston. The real winners are cities in ME and have been for the last decade or so. Nina patterns like these do very well up there too since the cold air eventually resists all the cutters and makes them redevelop in the Gulf of Maine. Yeah like last winter was amazing in Maine. It's probably the best place to live if you want to stay on the east coast and love snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 1 hour ago, gravitylover said: Add a .5" at 700 feet in Mahopac. Thanks for the full list- I'm somewhere between the 0.6 and 0.9 listed above lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: That's generally the case with eastern storm tracks, but dont you think that longitude (west) and elevation is better in la ninas because most storms tend to cut or be huggers? The WAR is stronger than it usually is. BTW I was shocked that 4" was your heaviest recorded October snow- you didn't get more than that there in October 2011? I remember reading parts of New England got 30"! I think Albany has a slightly higher average than Boston and it is at the same latitude though I'd still prefer Boston's climate as they tend to get walloped while Albany gets more of the smaller to moderate events 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 Just now, ILoveWinter said: I think Albany has a slightly higher average than Boston and it is at the same latitude though I'd still prefer Boston's climate as they tend to get walloped while Albany gets more of the smaller to moderate events Right and the best place to be is a little away from the coast and have some elevation, and out of Albany, Boston and Worcester, who are all at similar latitudes, Worcester tends to do the best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 10 minutes ago, JoshSnow said: Worcester has to have the highest elevation too right? Right, elevation and a bit away from the Ocean which is ideal. Blue Hill Observatory is like that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 Snowfall map attached for the event...should be pretty close. Some low temp maps from NJ and NYS this morning. Also two day water equivalent for our area. Max wind gust per spartan mesonet on LI was 40 and not shown. Minor coastal flooding occurred (possibly almost moderate in a few spots). My assessment is the NAM modeling for CAA changing rain to snow (and sleet southern edge) was the best. It also via previously forum advance posted temperature TSection had the 32F in NYC (big bust for GFS MOS). Overall EC was pretty consistent from the longer range on snowfall and NYC low temp and associated suburbs hard freeze. The GFS-P had a rather early but a bit too robust snow and storm signal for Friday morning. My tiny sample guess is the para will help improve the current GFS here in our area. Finally the Zeta 3-4 days later remnant power outages in the se USA, as of mid Saturday morning. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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