forkyfork Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 1-3" of rain looks like a solid bet regardless of the snow. if you want snow the euro outcome is your friend. it keeps the ejecting closed low strong while phasing with a northern stream s/w 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 What is your guess for 1,500 feet in elevation in Sullivan County in the Catskills? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 If 4" rain were to occur, probably Ocean County southward. Killer freeze I80 northward Friday afternoon-evening-especially early Saturday, with a killer freeze possible most of the rest of our area except maybe parts of LI. NYC first freezing temp is modeled for NYC but the 00z/26 UK/EC. As per prior Bluewave post---shortest period between Trace snow in NYC possible for Friday. Accumulative snow of several inches appears "possible" for high terrain N of I80, with even up to an inch near the city in NJ but this possibility still has options for being less (GFS - Para seems to be the BEST model on this several days ago if this occurs). [[Corrected BEST for GFS PARA at 409P. ]] Gust 50 MPH possible e LI Friday. Minor coastal flooding possible with the Friday morning high tide NJ coast (did not check NY). Please follow NWS and posters here. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Potential exists for snow for the interior with this storm. I can see some flakes for the city as the storm exists but nothing else. Here is the 6z GFS Para and eps ( got it from SNE thread ) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Please no 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 On 10/26/2020 at 10:25 AM, wdrag said: If 4" rain were to occur, probably Ocean County southward. Killer freeze I80 northward Friday afternoon-evening-especially early Saturday, with a killer freeze possible most of the rest of our area except maybe parts of LI. NYC first freezing temp is modeled for NYC but the 00z/26 UK/EC. As per prior Bluewave post---shortest period between Trace snow in NYC possible for Friday. Accumulative snow of several inches appears "possible" for high terrain N of I80, with even up to an inch near the city in NJ but this possibility still has options for being less (GFS - Para seems to be the less model on this several days ago if this occurs). Gust 50 MPH possible e LI Friday. Minor coastal flooding possible with the Friday morning high tide NJ coast (did not check NY). Please follow NWS and posters here. Expand Walt, it seems that NYC and Long Island are part of the cone? But this will be a remnant and not a tropical system once it gets up here right? They have 40 mph sustained winds (which would imply a TS) all the way to the east coast, but I suspect it'll already be absorbed by the mid-latitude system once it gets here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 On 10/26/2020 at 12:26 PM, MJO812 said: Please no Expand Looks like the Poconos are a good place to be if you want to see 1-2 inches of snow ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Also root for the new parallel GFS if you want a stronger phase and early season first flakes potential. A weakness of the current GFS OP is that it has a weak bias with the SE Ridge. The stronger SE Ridge on the parallel GFS and Euro allow a quicker phase closer to the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 On 10/26/2020 at 12:40 PM, bluewave said: Also root for the new parallel GFS if you want a stronger phase and early season first flakes potential. A weakness of the current GFS OP is that it has a weak bias with the SE Ridge. The stronger SE Ridge on the parallel GFS and Euro allow a quicker phase closer to the coast. Expand One of those rare cases where we're rooting for a stronger SE Ridge ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 On 10/26/2020 at 1:30 PM, Ericjcrash said: Lol. Expand Bad sign for winter 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 On 10/26/2020 at 12:28 PM, LibertyBell said: Walt, it seems that NYC and Long Island are part of the cone? But this will be a remnant and not a tropical system once it gets up here right? They have 40 mph sustained winds (which would imply a TS) all the way to the east coast, but I suspect it'll already be absorbed by the mid-latitude system once it gets here? Expand South side stronger I think initially coming out through the Delmarva. Then on Friday the upper low itself weakens opens eastward and permits the high to the north to approach and tighten north side remnant Zeta gradient with strong North-Northeast CAA during the afternoon in the boundary layer (over warm SST) and significant wind transfer from aloft. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 On 10/26/2020 at 1:39 PM, MJO812 said: Bad sign for winter Expand I don't buy into that. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 On 10/26/2020 at 1:47 PM, Ericjcrash said: I don't buy into that. Expand Yeah, means nothing the sample size is just way too small Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 On 10/26/2020 at 1:39 PM, MJO812 said: Bad sign for winter Expand Unfortunately, the GFS-parallel is based on the FV3 core rather than the now widely-used and effective 4D-Var initialization scheme (ECMWF, UKMET, GGEM). Inferior initialization coupled with other model issues can lead to wild outcomes. For perspective, it will be worth revisiting this forecast for verification purposes. Albany's lowest October temperature is 16 degrees. Its earliest single-digit reading occurred on November 16. It is all but certain that Albany will not have a 9 degree temperature on October 31. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 On 10/26/2020 at 1:49 PM, Wentzadelphia said: Yeah, means nothing the sample size is just way too small Expand For shit's and giggles I dug through every time in snowed in PHL in October since 1884 and the corresponding winter totals. Outside of the 2 duds(72-73 and 11-12), it's actually fairly encouraging albeit a very small sample size. So it has snowed(T or more) 15 times in October in PHL since 1884. However it has only snowed in October 4 times in the last 50 years(1970) and it just so happened 2 of the worst winters ever in these parts corresponded with October snow. Most snowfall in a following winter was 41.8" in 1957-1958 Least was Trace(0) in 1972-1973. Median of those 15 years was 20.9", right around average. Mean of those 15 years was 22.3", a little above average. So even the small sample size doesn't really even point in the direction of October Snow = Winter Cancel. I'm sure someone else can dig through the record for NYC but I bet they'd be similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 On 10/26/2020 at 2:35 PM, The Iceman said: For shit's and giggles I dug through every time in snowed in PHL in October since 1884 and the corresponding winter totals. Outside of the 2 duds(72-73 and 11-12), it's actually fairly encouraging albeit a very small sample size. So it has snowed(T or more) 15 times in October in PHL since 1884. Most snowfall in a following winter was 41.8" in 1957-1958 Least was Trace(0) in 1972-1973. Median of those 15 years was 20.9", right around average. Mean of those 15 years was 22.3", a little above average. So even the small sample size doesn't really even point in the direction of October Snow = Winter Cancel. I'm sure someone else can dig through the record for NY but I bet they'd be similar. Expand I've done the same for NYC. It worked out to approximately a 30" season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 On 10/26/2020 at 2:37 PM, Ericjcrash said: I've done the same for NYC. It worked out to approximately a 30" season. Expand After last winter a 30” season would be great 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 On 10/26/2020 at 1:11 PM, LibertyBell said: One of those rare cases where we're rooting for a stronger SE Ridge ;-) Expand That’s it. The 12z UKMET also has an earlier phase close to the coast. https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=72&nh=1&archive=0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 On 10/26/2020 at 1:39 PM, MJO812 said: Bad sign for winter Expand Why is every Para, a weenie model until it becomes the regular one lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 On 10/26/2020 at 5:01 PM, KEITH L.I said: Why is every Para, a weenie model until it becomes the regular one lol Expand Euro also has some snow for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 On 10/26/2020 at 1:39 PM, MJO812 said: Bad sign for winter Expand Doesn't it seem a tad early to be spiking the ball on this? I know everyone likes to call something and be correct about it, but it seems way too early to be right. Then again, 50/50 chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 On 10/26/2020 at 2:35 PM, The Iceman said: For shit's and giggles I dug through every time in snowed in PHL in October since 1884 and the corresponding winter totals. Outside of the 2 duds(72-73 and 11-12), it's actually fairly encouraging albeit a very small sample size. So it has snowed(T or more) 15 times in October in PHL since 1884. However it has only snowed in October 4 times in the last 50 years(1970) and it just so happened 2 of the worst winters ever in these parts corresponded with October snow. Most snowfall in a following winter was 41.8" in 1957-1958 Least was Trace(0) in 1972-1973. Median of those 15 years was 20.9", right around average. Mean of those 15 years was 22.3", a little above average. So even the small sample size doesn't really even point in the direction of October Snow = Winter Cancel. I'm sure someone else can dig through the record for NYC but I bet they'd be similar. Expand believe it or not I think we need to shrink the sample size....let's do 1950 onwards. The climate was radically different back in the early 1900s let alone late 1800s lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 On 10/26/2020 at 1:49 PM, Wentzadelphia said: Yeah, means nothing the sample size is just way too small Expand this is not where sample size matters I think, more important is the pattern and if that pattern means something later on. We had a strong correlation between cold Octobers mild Novembers and a snowy winter for a long time before the pattern changed during the mid 90s. Rather than just looking at numbers it's way more important to look at patterns and what they might mean going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 On 10/26/2020 at 2:37 PM, Ericjcrash said: I've done the same for NYC. It worked out to approximately a 30" season. Expand what happens if you constrain the data to only include modern winters (1950 onwards)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 On 10/26/2020 at 5:42 PM, LibertyBell said: what happens if you constrain the data to only include modern winters (1950 onwards)? Expand You're looking at a super small sample size for extremely anomalous events. What if a given system was 3° warmer and it rains? It's really hard to just say oh it snowed now winter is doomed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Winter isn’t over because of snow in October. We’re also forgetting really good winters where there was early snow and cold like in 2002 (granted that was an El Niño). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 On 10/26/2020 at 5:36 PM, North and West said: Doesn't it seem a tad early to be spiking the ball on this? I know everyone likes to call something and be correct about it, but it seems way too early to be right. Then again, 50/50 chance. Expand After the past few winters in the city he's allowed some healthy cynicism even if it is a tad early. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Cold on the Ukie This is after the precip ends 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 On 10/26/2020 at 5:45 PM, Ericjcrash said: You're looking at a super small sample size for extremely anomalous events. What if a given system was 3° warmer and it rains? It's really hard to just say oh it snowed now winter is doomed. Expand Yeah that's another issue, which is why it's better to analyze similar patterns rather than similar outcomes. In other words, if there was a similar pattern in place in some other years than that should give us a better idea rather than just looking for similar outcomes, regardless of the pattern in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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