dan11295 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 I am hopeful New Orleans avoids the strongest winds mostly since they may avoid the SE quad 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Anyone remember what the max gust was in New Orleans during Katrina? I know they were on the western end whereas Zeta is more of a bullseye. I have family in NOLA. Katrina was a minimal Cat 3 with winds around 115-120 mph (sustained) when it hit NOLA in 2005. However, it still had the storm surge of its previous Cat 5 intensity upon its landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Just now, kayman said: I have family in NOLA. Katrina was a minimal Cat 3 with winds around 115-120 mph (sustained) when it hit NOLA in 2005. However, it still had the storm surge of its previous Cat 5 intensity upon its landfall The eye of Katrina passed east of NOLA. They initially looked ok until the levee breaks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louieloy102 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 In Slidell, Louisiana, for the storm. Winds approaching tropical storm force but still only through gusts. Should be an interesting evening ahead. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, kayman said: I have family in NOLA. Katrina was a minimal Cat 3 with winds around 115-120 mph (sustained) when it hit NOLA in 2005. However, it still had the storm surge of its previous Cat 5 intensity upon its landfall Yes. Thanks. But my question was because I was wondering if Zeta has the potential to match or outgust Katrina in New Orleans. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Is anyone under the impression that the NWS Slidell office would be wrong to issue an Excessive Wind Warning for the lower Louisiana parishes upon the eyewall coming upon land? The radar imagery is signifying an intensifying hurricane northern eyewall with intense lightning that could be a Cat 3 when it arrives... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, kayman said: I have family in NOLA. Katrina was a minimal Cat 3 with winds around 115-120 mph (sustained) when it hit NOLA in 2005. However, it still had the storm surge of its previous Cat 5 intensity upon its landfall Katrina didn’t hit NOLA. It slid East. There is no evidence the city got anywhere near 115-120 sustained. Power failures led to fewer reports than average but the consensus was cat1, maybe cat 2 winds for the city itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Just now, Hoosier said: Yes. Thanks. But my question was because I was wondering if Zeta has the potential to match or outgust Katrina in New Orleans. Gotcha! There's a 50-50 chance that it could especially if makes it to 110+ mph prior to landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 We have a dropsonde with 101kts at the surface in the eastern eyewall. Cat 3 Major Hurricane? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Time is running out fast for it to hit cat 3. Forward motion is fast. I think maybe 110mph max landfall. Still very impressive. A lot like Sally that was quickly intensifying at landfall 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Wow, 26 ft seas just south of the mouth of the MS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 28, 2020 Author Share Posted October 28, 2020 NHC could definitely go with a 115 mph advisory now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Jon Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said: Time is running out fast for it to hit cat 3. Forward motion is fast. I think maybe 110mph max landfall. Still very impressive. A lot like Sally that was quickly intensifying at landfall yeah, but unlike Sally, this one's hauling a$$. Lighting's kicking up again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 First tornado warning issued: Tornado Warning Tornado Warning LAC033-037-091-281945- /O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0093.201028T1921Z-201028T1945Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service New Orleans LA 221 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southwestern St. Helena Parish in southeastern Louisiana... Eastern East Feliciana Parish in southeastern Louisiana... Northeastern East Baton Rouge Parish in southeastern Louisiana... * Until 245 PM CDT. * At 221 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 8 miles west of Montpelier, or 13 miles southwest of Greensburg, moving northwest at 30 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Clinton around 245 PM CDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3100 9091 3065 9072 3065 9084 3082 9115 TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 140DEG 28KT 3068 9081 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...<.75IN $$ MEFFER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 28, 2020 Author Share Posted October 28, 2020 132 kts at the 942 mb level! I'd absolutely go with 115 mph now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 14 minutes ago, eyewall said: The eye of Katrina passed east of NOLA. They initially looked ok until the levee breaks. When the Levee breaks, Moma you got to move.... LZ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, Windspeed said: 132 kts at the 942 mb level! I'd absolutely go with 115 mph now. I’d go 95 kts. Need a stronger dropsonde since surface is barely 100 and that’s not even measuring sustained winds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Still strengthening, per latest recon pass -- yikes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 28, 2020 Author Share Posted October 28, 2020 969.9 EXTRAP on that last pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 As far as the media and the general population goes this one is really going under the radar so to speak. So many hurricane watches for NO this season and so much coverage of Gulf Storms. Like Covid, people kind of just let their guard down. Many people are just saying (as of last night) it's just a Cat 1. However... A strengthening storm always seems to over achieve. Katrina was weakening and slid east of NO. NO metro 1.2 million people! This storm is hauling ass unlike many earlier season tropical systems. It's not going to lose much punch The eyewall could go right over NO. Highest destructive wind is just in the eyewall. I think this storm will be by far the most destructive of this season. Not often do you see a strong Cat 2 going over a major metro area of this size. When was the last one?? Lots of population just east of NO too like Gulfport which will be on the strong east side What are some good webcams to watch? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said: As far as the media and the general population goes this one is really going under the radar so to speak. So many hurricane watches for NO this season and so much coverage of Gulf Storms. Like Covid, people kind of just let their guard down. Many people are just saying (as of last night) it's just a Cat 1. However... A strengthening storm always seems to over achieve. Katrina was weakening and slid east of NO. NO metro 1.2 million people! This storm is hauling ass unlike many earlier season tropical systems. It's not going to lose much punch The eyewall could go right over NO. Highest destructive wind is just in the eyewall. I think this storm will be by far the most destructive of this season. Not often do you see a strong Cat 2 going over a major metro area of this size. When was the last one?? Lots of population just east of NO too like Gulfport which will be on the strong east side What are some good webcams to watch? Hate to say it but I agree. Also very concerned to see how the levees hold up in NO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 minute ago, KPITSnow said: Hate to say it but I agree. Also very concerned to see how the levees hold up in NO. Fast mover so the rains will be limited to a couple of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 28, 2020 Author Share Posted October 28, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 967mb extrap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 28, 2020 Author Share Posted October 28, 2020 Wow... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 hour ago, cptcatz said: Hurricane Josh is gonna be sitting on his front porch getting the strongest winds of the storm. Impressive house selection. I'm not sure...do people buy houses intending to be hit directly by hurricanes? 0.o ...Seems like a bad option for gaining equity! 50 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Big burst of lightning on latest imagery. Definitely still strengthening. Holy cow. 44 minutes ago, tiger_deF said: I think this may take lots of folks in New Orleans by suprise unfortunately Eh, I don't think it will. They've been in the path MANY times this season. They still remember Katrina. They are very very prepared. You're never going to get 100% of the population to prepare but all in all, I believe in the population of NOLA and their EMS to have done the right prep work. This is a fast moving storm. You don't have saturated ground + strong winds, you've got strong winds. And they aren't escaping those winds. This thing is an express to New Orleans. // -Marginal case for cat 3. If they get hit with a fast moving low end cat 3, next time a slow moving, high grade cat 3 hits them...the citizenry will pay less attention. Remember the goal here is to inform the public, protect property, and save lives. That's already being done. Case exists for 110mph. Case does, technically, exist for 115mph. BUT, the environment close to shore is meh. The winds above ground will mix down to make it a major if it continues to strengthen. Also, messaging is better to say consistent cat 2 then say oh it's a cat 3 oh now back to cat 2 oh now this. If it looks extreme near shore, yeah, they'll bump it up. But needlessly upgrading could make many people want to hit the road and run away...which would be bad at this point!!! Scientifically you could make the case for Cat 3, but as I've explained before in other threads, that isn't the entire picture. If things continue along the current trend, they won't have a choice but to bump it up. -Extreme wind warning issuance would be made close to landfall. It's not on shore yet. It's got a couple hours to go. People know what is about to happen. You do NOT want to overwarn people. If you "waste" your warnings for a fast moving cat 2/3, how do you convince people to do more for a cat 5? How about a cat 1 that moves at 5mph with a giant wind field? People pay attention to the category number and extreme wind warnings are high-end warnings. The NHC won't underplay the forecast if the data support cat 3, but they won't overplay it if it's marginal. Maybe 110 at 4pm, if they feel it's solid they could bump it to 115 at 4pm or wait until 5pm. The big thing with hurricane forecasting and messaging is consistency. It's jarring to go up and down and up and down hour by hour, minute by minute. What would this forum say if they went to 115, then, at 5pm, it fell apart? What would citizens of NOLA say? I mean, I don't think it will--but the moment this thing looks a tiny bit worse, people on here will go "ah it's over!" "so much for that", "it'll be lucky to maintain tropical storm strength". In other words--moderation, folks. Frankly right now it's sitting on the border where 115 is plausible and reasonable. I'm not sure what I would do if I were the NHC, but I'm glad I don't have to be the one to make the call. -This is not as strong as Hurricane Laura was at landfall. It is not the strongest storm of the season. It's well organized though. -The levees will be fine. They are designed to handle a slow moving monster. They'll handle a fast moving mostly wind event perfectly well. Surge is a function of storm speed, storm size, wind speed and duration of time at that wind speed. And this isn't going to produce 30-40" of rain either. -I hope that people in the NOLA metro are preparing to take shelter. A 2x4 at 115 mph hurts. I assume they are, per my above comments. But, still. MU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said: I'm not sure...do people buy houses intending to be hit directly by hurricanes? 0.o ...Seems like a bad option for gaining equity! He rented it for hurricane season, as he calls it "Operation Deep South at Hurricane House". Pretty damn good choice for a rental home as a base to chase hurricanes! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 The levees will probably be fine but referencing what they are designed to handle or have prevented before doesn’t seem like the way to go. If they do fail it will not be because of their specs, it will be because of an unknown defect. Our infrastructure sucks. Something could fail unexpectedly just like Katrina. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 SUMMARY OF 300 PM CDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.7N 90.8W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SW OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES $$ Forecaster Berg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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