TPAwx Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Nowhere near the same. This is an average sized storm booking it with winds picking up at very end. Katrina was a mid gulf monster and had days to buildup that massive surge. Not fair to even include this in the discussion with the K word down there The more salient question is how does this compare to Sandy? 2 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 11 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Uhm...pretty strong convective towers are now presently going up in the eastern eyewall. Zeta is putting on a show. 8 minutes ago, NavarreDon said: Looks like these are flagged but it makes one wonder what they’ll find in the NE pass. . Collectively, wow. I agree, NE eyewall pass will be impressive. Though the winds there that got sampled are still getting a boost from the fast forward speed of the storm (note the direction of storm motion compared to the wind barbs). Also want to know the surface pressure. Impressive. But, no storm jumps 25mph in 3 hours. It's landfalling in 6. Does anyone have an analog for that big of a jump that fast over eh waters? I don't! Remember that Cat 2 is still impressive here given the water temps, time of year, that none of the guidance except the extreme high end projected such an intense system. I think the consensus on the forum right now is that it's at cat 2 strength. It's going to run out of ocean before it can hit cat 3, but honestly even I am surprised how well this is holding together and strengthening so close to landfall. MU 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Not comparing the systems in that context. It's been a while since a formidable hurricane took a path this close (or directly over) New Orleans. Katrina was slower, much much MUCH bigger, and New Orleans didn't have the protection system they have now. After Katrina they made major design changes to all kinds of things. This is a strong hurricane hitting a major city, it will do damage. But it will do less damage than Katrina...and such would be true even if they were the same in every way...size speed strength, because NOLA has now redesigned their city to better withstand a Katrina. The similarity is simply that it's another hurricane poised to directly impact the city. That's not to minimize it, just, Katrinas and Harveys.. those are a really rare type of event. MU 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Aircraft data: 975 mb (down 2) 93kt wind btm 150m in SEeyewall. That would imply probably 97kt winds in NE eyewall. Peak FL winds of 102 knots, which likely supports a surface intensity of 90kts. Eye is *open* to the NW-W, and is 24miles in diameter. MU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 100mph 975mb! Wow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 100mph as of the new 2PM intermediate advisory! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 100 mph, Cat 2. This is definitely strengthening due to enhancement from the trough picking it up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 25 minutes ago, hlcater said: Never seen asymmetry quite like this. Fascinating. Maybe this with track over city keeps strongest winds to east of New Orleans? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyEC Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Easier comparison would be Isaac for scope of damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Huge fetch too on the eastern side. This is gonna be a surge problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, AnthonyEC said: Easier comparison would be Isaac for scope of damage. Isaac was an 80 mph storm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Last post for now from me but if you have Radar Scope, the velocity imagery for the eyewall is now starting to show on radar. Being mindful of range folding (the purple you see in the image in the ring shape is range folding) and beam height, the right front quadrant shows a broad area of 115mph winds with a small pocket maxing at 131mph probably in a mesovortex. Beam height at that distance is 24k feet, lol, so that ain't mixing to the surface . But, that's still an impressive measurement and is above what I believe delta was at on its approach for the same approximate height. Indicates the system is well organized and not falling apart. MU 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Lots of lightning in the eyewall, still think we could push a low end Cat 3 if the baroclinic forcing and trough interactions line up just right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 14 minutes ago, dan11295 said: Maybe this with track over city keeps strongest winds to east of New Orleans? Hurricane Josh is gonna be sitting on his front porch getting the strongest winds of the storm. Impressive house selection. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 28, 2020 Author Share Posted October 28, 2020 Looks like SE quadrant is the strongest quadrant now due to relative storm motion. So this is definitely not a Cat 3 yet. However there will be one more pass through the SE quadrant so we'll see if it has further strengthened over the past hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 A couple of observations with gusts to 68mph 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 28, 2020 Author Share Posted October 28, 2020 Crazy impressive for freaking October 28th. Kate in November '85 was an impressive Category 2 into the Panhandle but it was also weakening significantly at landfall. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 119 kt FL winds in the SE!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Yikes. New Orleans in for a rough few hours. Hopefully the surge impacts aren’t too severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 This is ABOVE flight level but...Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 I wouldn't be surprised if this doesn't make it as a low end Cat 3 for sure. This is insane. It's defying all forecast projections of its weakening upon landfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Just now, Orangeburgwx said: This is ABOVE flight level but... Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk sorry, but are these velocity pinpoint numbers through Radar Scope Pro? I can't seem seem to get them on my app. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 NHC upgraded to 973 mb and 105 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 I due really think that jet to the north is leading to this quick intensification prior to landfall. That northern outflow channel has really be enhanced by the jet. Great evacuation occurring and just enough warm water to provide favorable support for strengthening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 hour ago, Windspeed said: 1 hour ago, HKY_WX said: Makes me wonder what kind of impact this will have on the New Orleans Levees. Coming in at a simliar angle to Katrina, just a bit further west. Fortunately it will be hauling ass so hopefully that will mitigate surge. Yes, there still will be surge, but again, forward motion is so fast it may not have enough time to build surge inland too far or compromise levees. This looks like it will be a bad wind event however as time is going to run out before it can weaken from maximum intensity... Forward speed will not affect surge. Wave heights yes, surge, no. The storm surge will seem like it’s coming in like a wall bc of how fast the storm is moving into landfall... Also, I see New Orleans high tide is in 4 hrs, at *6:00 pm* CST. Seems like Zeta will be over New Orleans right around that time... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 hour ago, NavarreDon said: . Ah, my favorite part the tornado threat is starting to come in. One thing I learned from any strengthening tropical system upon landfall is its ground friction and localized wind shear is greater than sustaining or dying landfalling tropical systems. This is going to be a likely tornado outbreak for anyone along the front right quadrant of this system. Greater NOLA, Greater Birmingham, and Metro Atlanta will need to be very attentive of the tornadic potential through tonight and tomorrow morning... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 28, 2020 Author Share Posted October 28, 2020 Big burst of lightning on latest imagery. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 New Orleans has a chance of the eye passing right over it it seems. When’s the last time a major American city got directly into an eye? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 I think this may take lots of folks in New Orleans by suprise unfortunately 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Anyone remember what the max gust was in New Orleans during Katrina? I know they were on the western end whereas Zeta is more of a bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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