SnowLover22 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: btw it has made landfall it seems or nearly at that. Eye is clearly over one of the outer islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 28, 2020 Author Share Posted October 28, 2020 Potential severe impacts far inland it seems... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 minute ago, the ghost of leroy said: I saw that earlier. Anyone an expert on near shore wave heights? I saw the associated graph and it looks so extreme that I wonder whether it is an instrument error. Watching the webcam posted earlier on Grand Ilse. The waves are starting to crash over the dunes and water is rising quickly. https://irgir.click2stream.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Just now, LibertyBell said: Okay so they dont follow the rules of significant figures and if they measured 112 or even 111 it would be reported as 115 in the public advisory? I suggest you file a public complaint and let us know what they have to say about the rules of math. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: I suggest you file a public complaint and let us know what they have to say about the rules of math. ha not worth the effort. It looks like it may be upgraded later anyway. We went through all this with Michael too. I remember that discussion well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 recon found 115 knot flight level winds.. might be enough for an upgrade. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 New advisory has a pressure drop to 970 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, dbullsfan said: any chaser feeds anyone has? or other type of video? Thank You Weather channel has live feeds out of New Orleans. https://livenewsof.com/the-weather-channel/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Latest NHC full forecast out. 110mph and 970mb. Everyone freak out. It wasn't upgraded to cat 3! OMG!!!! 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Okay so they dont follow the rules of significant figures and if they measured 112 or even 111 it would be reported as 115 in the public advisory? Sigh. I could continue this conversation, but I don't feel like it's productive and helping anyone so I won't. The storm is about to make landfall and I want to see what the hhunters just found and watch what happens. We can talk about this later. I don't pretend to know more than the nhc, and I don't question their scientists who have dedicated their lives to studying hurricanes. The 5pm advisory should be out any second along with a new vdm. We can chat about 5mph differences and rounding and what should or shouldn't be done another time. MU 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Looks like a bit of a wobble back to the east from the last couple dropsondes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 28, 2020 Author Share Posted October 28, 2020 Latest NHC full forecast out. 110mph and 970mb. Everyone freak out. It wasn't upgraded to cat 3! OMG!!!! Could be waiting on new dropsonde data. But it probably won't be enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said: Sigh. I could continue this conversation, but I don't feel like it's productive and helping anyone so I won't. The storm is about to make landfall and I want to see what the hhunters just found and watch what happens. We can talk about this later. I don't pretend to know more than the nhc, and I don't question their scientists who have dedicated their lives to studying hurricanes. The 5pm advisory should be out any second along with a new vdm. We can chat about 5mph differences and rounding and what should or shouldn't be done another time. MU I just wanted to be clear that's what you said because in the first part of the sentence you said it would be reported as 110 mph and in the second part you said 115 mph lol. This part: Not cutoff at 2.5mph and if it's a 112 major they'd say it was 110. They'd say 115 cat 3 if winds support 112. Regardless, interesting read: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/10/28/hurricane-zeta-track-louisiana/ Flight-level winds during a midafternoon Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance flight hit 138 mph; extrapolated down to the surface, that would suggest 101 mph winds at the surface. A dropsonde, or probe, released shortly after found a surface wind of 115 mph in the southern eyewall. That would indicate Zeta is near or at major hurricane status. The National Hurricane Center did not upgrade Zeta in their most recent advisory, raising the potential that the measurement was suspect. Regardless, Zeta continues to increase in strength and could approach Category 3 intensity as it makes landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Still could upgrade it during the next hour or so, even though it wasn't at 5PM. Has to be right on the cusp now, another MB or two would do it pressure-wise, or anything else to support increase. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Just now, Windspeed said: 2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Latest NHC full forecast out. 110mph and 970mb. Everyone freak out. It wasn't upgraded to cat 3! OMG!!!! Could be waiting on new dropsonde data. But it probably won't be enough. It sure has that look. Satellite presentation still improving as it landfalls. Craziness 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 I am sure they will look at Zeta in post analysis for potential upgrade. As said, makes no difference as to the current impacts. Many people are going to get a lot more than they were expecting wind wise. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said: It sure has that look. Satellite presentation still improving as it landfalls. Craziness Hard pressed to call any of what it's making its way through now as land, really. Really won't be until it's N of New Orleans. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 So will the eyewall be going over New Orleans. It is kind of hard to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Just now, jm1220 said: Hard pressed to call any of what it's making its way through now as land, really. Really won't be until it's N of New Orleans. Yeah and I'm not sure they have any official wind instrumentation near those bayous to measure wind or surge for that matter. I remember the same issues with Laura with surge as people thought surge was lower than expected because of where it occurred, but later studies showed that the surge was higher, but in a much more sparsely populated area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Just now, SnowLover22 said: So will the eyewall be going over New Orleans. It is kind of hard to tell. So unless there's a change of motion I don't see how NO misses it entirely. If you take either the short term more easterly motion or a more longer term look it still goes over the city. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Could see this one going either way in post analysis. Lot of indicators suggestive that this may have briefly been a marginal cat 3, but nothing was overtly definitive. Pressure kept falling into landfall and bottomed out at 966. If any of this years storms were to be bumped in post, it'd be this one, pending onshore obs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Latest vdm reported "eyewall degrading rapidly". MU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Jon Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 2 1/2 foot surge in Gulf Port. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Moderately Unstable said: Latest vdm reported "eyewall degrading rapidly". MU Certainly doesn't look like there's a whole lot on the south side on radar now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Just now, Dunkman said: Certainly doesn't look like there's a whole lot on the south side on radar now. Is that normal? I haven't been tracking hurricanes long but it seems like every hurricane this year had an open/weak south side as it moved north onto the gulf shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Impressed with the HWRF on this one. It wasn’t perfect but it got the gist of it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Just now, cptcatz said: Is that normal? I haven't been tracking hurricanes long but it seems like every hurricane this year had an open/weak south side as it moved north onto the gulf shore. Its fairly common, but not always true. Laura didn't have a weak south side. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 minute ago, cptcatz said: Is that normal? I haven't been tracking hurricanes long but it seems like every hurricane this year had an open/weak south side as it moved north onto the gulf shore. Classic halfacane 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 minute ago, cptcatz said: Is that normal? I haven't been tracking hurricanes long but it seems like every hurricane this year had an open/weak south side as it moved north onto the gulf shore. Could be the location of the radar not giving a full picture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 minute ago, dan11295 said: Its fairly common, but not always true. Laura didn't have a weak south side. Clearly you missed the whole epic battle about whether the weak south side of Laura was or was not due to radar attenuation 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now