Moderately Unstable Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 10 minutes ago, Doc Jon said: However, don't forget that this IS 2020 - the year of highly improbable events. Who would've guessed that two hurricanes would hit almost the same spot this year or that we'd have run out of names by now, or that (I'm from Boulder, Colorado so I have to throw this one out there) a wildfire would've burned through 100,000+ acres in a day, or that an amped-up cold virus would've shut down the country? This is the year of Murphy's Law and who knows how those levees were actually put together - not what was on the specs but what was actually done or what those levees are actually capable of holding back. Given this year though, if there's ANY possibility of them failing - they'll fail. True. I'm familiar with Colorado's situation since I had to turn back on a 14er out there in Sept due to smoke. Yes, 2020 is the year of Murphy. I live in Philly. They just announced a curfew for the city tonight so I have to leave work early to make sure I get home in time. At this point I would issue an extreme wind warning. It's on the doorstep of the city. It ain't dying now. Landfall is coming soon. MU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Just now, the ghost of leroy said: A better solution would be to get rid of mph and speak in terms of knots. It’s all very nice and clean when we do that. it gets confusing lol- because we have the old English system of mph and then we have the metric system with kmph and then we have knots. I dont know why there is so much resistance to the metric system here (we use it very comfortably for focal lengths and objective apertures of lenses and telescopes.....I could never imagine measuring focal length or objective aperture in "inches" lol) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Just now, jbenedet said: We can compare hurricanes based on size intensity and track...but in terms of impact that doesn’t tell whole story. This one does has a few details that already make it unique and potentially far more impactful. Surprise factor. Stronger than widely expected. Most are likely riding it out (for better or worse). Direct hit of a major metro city, that is very flood prone. Worst storm surge coinciding near/at time of high tide. How about the rapidity of its movement? Does that increase the surge factor too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 This isn't a cat 3 till NHC calls it officially. Curious if it upgrades in the last hr before landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Jon Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Moderately Unstable said: True. I'm familiar with Colorado's situation since I had to turn back on a 14er out there in Sept due to smoke. Yes, 2020 is the year of Murphy. I live in Philly. They just announced a curfew for the city tonight so I have to leave work early to make sure I get home in time. At this point I would issue an extreme wind warning. It's on the doorstep of the city. It ain't dying now. Landfall is coming soon. MU wow, small world. I got my Ph.D. from Penn. Lived in West Philly and Center City for three years. Terrible situation you have out there - was watching a stream last night. Stay safe! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Well it certainly doesn’t look like New Orleans ends up west of the eye. Headed NNE and still possible the eastern eyewall comes through. Certainly St Bernard/Slidell look to get it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Jon Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 grand isle beach webcam: https://irgir.click2stream.com 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 MS Gulf Coast needs to watch out for the winds too, this isn't going to weaken much before they get the SE quad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Just now, LibertyBell said: How about the rapidity of its movement? Does that increase the surge factor too? I think in a more qualitative way. It will come in like a wall. Subtle and then shocking...With background flow aligned on East side, it will increase fetch and therefore wave heights which will also help to push the surge further inland... So surge itself, not higher but more impactful—further inland in eastern half of storm and more surprising in terms of how fast the water rises... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 115 kt fl wind = 100 to 105 kt at the surface. Cat 3 all likelyhood . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: THIS! Let's keep politics out of this forum. NHC would upgrade to cat 3 if it was cat 3. I think our time is out for any upticks. Regardless this is a high end cat 3 and will have major impacts that extend well inland because of very fast forward motion. The NHC upgraded Michael to a Cat 5 post-mortem. No reason why they wouldn't do the same for Zeta if conditions were met. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: I think in a more qualitative way. It will come in like a wall. Subtle and then shocking...With background flow aligned on East side, it will increase fetch and therefore wave heights which will also help to push the surge further inland... So surge itself, not higher but more impactful—further inland in eastern half of storm and more surprising in terms of how fast the water rises... Also is there such a thing as the "speed of a surge"- so a faster moving storm means more force from the surge because it moves in faster too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 8 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said: -The NHC is very strongly non political. -Most scientists lean liberal. -This is not a political forum. -The NHC are the ones who issue forecasts and officially classify storm intensities. You should care, this was a poor statement. You do not know more than the NHC. MU This has nothing to do with politics, but the simple fact that wind measurements aren't accurate enough to separate a Cat 2 110 mph storm from a Cat 3 111 mph storm and wind measurements are rounded to the nearest 5 mph anyway. But like the other poster said, this is likely to be upgraded later anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, wizard021 said: 115 kt fl wind = 100 to 105 kt at the surface. Cat 3 all likelyhood . Why do you keep arguing this? Clearly if NHC thought this they would update the intensity. But could be a Michael like situation where it's so close to landfall that they aren't wanting to cause panic. Michael had cat 5 winds prior to landfall and they didn't upgrade it. Could be same with this. Maybe afraid they would cause panic if it suddenly hit major hurricane at landfall. Regardless of it being high end cat 2 or low end cat 3 this will have the same impacts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: Why do you keep arguing this? Clearly if NHC thought this they would update the intensity. But could be a Michael like situation where it's so close to landfall that they aren't wanting to cause panic. Michael had cat 5 winds prior to landfall and they didn't upgrade it. Could be same with this. Maybe afraid they would cause panic if it suddenly hit major hurricane at landfall. Regardless of it being high end cat 2 or low end cat 3 this will have the same impacts Well I am not telling everyone to disregard the NHC, it is just my personal preference to not listen to them. No hard feelings. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: This has nothing to do with politics, but the simple fact that wind measurements aren't accurate enough to separate a Cat 2 110 mph storm from a Cat 3 111 mph storm and wind measurements are rounded to the nearest 5 mph anyway. But like the other poster said, this is likely to be upgraded later anyway. Let’s just call it an Australian cat 4 because that way nobody is wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: Why do you keep arguing this? Clearly if NHC thought this they would update the intensity. But could be a Michael like situation where it's so close to landfall that they aren't wanting to cause panic. Michael had cat 5 winds prior to landfall and they didn't upgrade it. Could be same with this. Maybe afraid they would cause panic if it suddenly hit major hurricane at landfall. Regardless of it being high end cat 2 or low end cat 3 this will have the same impacts But that's ridiculous because like you said "there's no difference" I dont believe they tailor their forecasts or reports based on panic either. They are objective scientists so they go by the data. If people act irresponsibly that's on the people. Besides panic at this late stage isn't going to make a difference, people will just hunker down more, which is what they should be doing anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: This has nothing to do with politics, but the simple fact that wind measurements aren't accurate enough to separate a Cat 2 110 mph storm from a Cat 3 111 mph storm and wind measurements are rounded to the nearest 5 mph anyway. But like the other poster said, this is likely to be upgraded later anyway. No. They said it would be upgraded if conditions indicated it should be. Wind speeds are not rounded. Anemometers are accurate, particularly those employed by the nhc, who are not using backyard anemometers from their planes and sondes to measure things. I agree this is non political. You conveniently cut off my message which was quoting a troll that quoted themselves to contradict themselves trying to start a political argument on a weather forum. *I* am not talking about politics. MU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 radar velocities up to 140 mph 8,000 feet up. 115 mph is definitely defendable for the surface. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Just now, wizard021 said: Well I am not telling everyone to disregard the NHC, it is just my personal preference to not listen to them. No hard feelings. Few, if any, care about your personal batshit preferences as to whether this is 5kt stronger than the NHC says it is. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Also is there such a thing as the "speed of a surge"- so a faster moving storm means more force from the surge because it moves in faster too? I think that is fair. For a very fast moving strong hurricane, it comes in more like a tsunami (for lack of a better word) than a gradual rise in water. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Moderately Unstable said: No. They said it would be upgraded if conditions indicated it should be. Wind speeds are not rounded. Anemometers are accurate, particularly those employed by the nhc, who are not using backyard anemometers from their planes and sondes to measure things. I agree this is non political. You conveniently cut off my message which was quoting a troll that quoted themselves to contradict themselves trying to start a political argument on a weather forum. *I* am not talking about politics. MU Wind speeds in the official reports issued to the public sure are rounded- that's why you see official reports of wind speeds always listed in 5 mph increments. And on top of that the categorization of these storms are based on those rounded numbers, which is why the SS scale should be rounded to the nearest 5 mph too. I work in data and this is a thing we call "significant figures." You can't categorize something beyond the accuracy of the information you have to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 50 ft season near shore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 btw it has made landfall it seems or nearly at that. Eye is clearly over one of the outer islands. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: Wind speeds in the official reports sure are rounded- thats why you see official reports of wind speeds always listed in 5 mph increments. Not what I meant. They are usually rounded UP. Not down. Not cutoff at 2.5mph and if it's a 112 major they'd say it was 110. They'd say 115 cat 3 if winds support 112. MU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: But that's ridiculous because like you said "there's no difference" I dont believe they tailor their forecasts or reports based on panic either. They are objective scientists so they go by the data. If people act irresponsibly that's on the people. Besides panic at this late stage isn't going to make a difference, people will just hunker down more, which is what they should be doing anyway. A 5mph difference between 110 and 115 isn't going to be hardly any different in impacts. Now if you're talking like 120-125 that's different 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: 50 ft season near shore I saw that earlier. Anyone an expert on near shore wave heights? I saw the associated graph and it looks so extreme that I wonder whether it is an instrument error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Looks like the eye has most cleared out on WV Sat. Also some explosive CDO in the NE Eyewall. Possibly some land frictional impacts as it makes landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 any chaser feeds anyone has? or other type of video? Thank You Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Moderately Unstable said: Not what I meant. They are usually rounded UP. Not down. Not cutoff at 2.5mph and if it's a 112 major they'd say it was 110. They'd say 115 cat 3 if winds support 112. MU Okay so they dont follow the rules of significant figures and if they measured 112 or even 111 it would be reported as 115 in the public advisory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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