Orangeburgwx Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 985.9Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Dropsonde: 982 mb (985 mb with 36 kt wind). That's another 3 mb down from the last pass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 NHC saying it's now reached hurricane strength, 80 mph and 981 mb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Big question is how much strength it loses as it will spend a fair amount over the Yucatan, both the HWRF and HMON have it back down to a TS and never really bring it back to a hurricane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STxVortex Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 28 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Big question is how much strength it loses as it will spend a fair amount over the Yucatan, both the HWRF and HMON have it back down to a TS and never really bring it back to a hurricane. I'd be inclined to minimize those models. The NHC is already progging a LA Delta landfall at hurricane strength, which is a slight bump up from earlier forecasts. They now show Zeta at hurricane strength clear across the GOM. The 1700 Forecast Discussion will have the details. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/180131.shtml?cone#contents 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 1 hour ago, Cheeznado said: Big question is how much strength it loses as it will spend a fair amount over the Yucatan, both the HWRF and HMON have it back down to a TS and never really bring it back to a hurricane. Delta passed over quickly. If it's eye and structure held together the end game would have been much worse. Granted almost a month ago, the Gulf has cooled a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Next recon on it's way. Really wish MX Belize had working radars cause it's hard to tell how far convection is wrapping around the center. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Quote 000 WTNT33 KNHC 262041 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Zeta Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020 ...ZETA EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 86.0W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES ... DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 86.0 West. Zeta is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northwestward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the north Tuesday night. A faster northward to north-northeastward motion is forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move over the northern Yucatan Peninsula later today or tonight, move over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the northern Gulf Coast in the watch area on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible before Zeta makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula. Some weakening is likely while Zeta moves over the Yucatan Peninsula late tonight and early Tuesday. Zeta is forecast to strengthen again when it moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico later on Tuesday and be at or near hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 26, 2020 Author Share Posted October 26, 2020 Almost looks as if there has been another vortex realignment. Though EXTRAP was rather broad around 983, they hit 982.5 within the presently strong MCS as the flight veered just E of S. Winds have not come up. We'll have to see if strong area of convection becomes the dominate vorticity maximum prior to landfall. Again, though pressure is still falling, it seems some structural reorganization may be underway. Fortunately for the Yucatán, at this time, it appears Zeta is going to run out of time for significant strengthening to take off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Not too bad, but not amazing either 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 29 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Almost looks as if there has been another vortex realignment. Where can I find a path history to see any zigs and zags. My storm follower amateur eyes have thought I've seen some, but so far do not have path history in my small bucket of visual tools to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 26, 2020 Author Share Posted October 26, 2020 Where can I find a path history to see any zigs and zags. My storm follower amateur eyes have thought I've seen some, but so far do not have path history in my small bucket of visual tools to look at.Just going on the elongated minimal pressure obs from recon and their veer to the center point of that CDO feature. At any rate, it's looking like Zeta is going to run out of ocean surface before it can go bonkers, which is a good thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 54 minutes ago, Windspeed said: 56 minutes ago, Prospero said: Where can I find a path history to see any zigs and zags. My storm follower amateur eyes have thought I've seen some, but so far do not have path history in my small bucket of visual tools to look at. Just going on the elongated minimal pressure obs from recon and their veer to the center point of that CDO feature. At any rate, it's looking like Zeta is going to run out of ocean surface before it can go bonkers, which is a good thing. Landfall south of Delta and a lot weaker, which means more time over the Yucatan before moving back over warm waters? (May not be adding anything to a met discussion, but there are a lot of us who check out this forum and love the technical met secret codes who are here for the sake of being with like minds.) TS conditions in Cancun, but hopefully not too much more. Still a storm to watch for we who are totally obsessed... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STxVortex Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Well, at least one dedicated stormchaser is apparently back in the hunt, for Zeta this time. I'm effing jealous, dammit ;] . [edit-- I'm surprised he was able to get another rental vehicle --] 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Cancun with 60 mph winds and a 71 mph gust (84/106 with Delta). That is enough to cause problems in Florida for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 6 hours ago, NavarreDon said: . Getting in the eyes of both delta and zeta in Mexico with no radar, no well defined eye on satellite, and both being small eyes, is extremely impressive. This storm was ramping up it just ran out of water. GFS is interesting, it deepens the system through landfall. I’m wondering if the increased forward speed will mitigate the time zeta spends in the cooler water/higher shear environment thus negating those weakening factors. The shear vector also is in line with forward motion which could mitigate that impact as well. This to me looks like a “solid” cat 1 landfall in Louisiana 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 6z HWRF is now showing a strong cat 2 at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Compared to Delta, Zeta is a bit weaker on Gulf emergence and will have less time over water, but the overall environment appears to be a bit better. I agree at least a solid cat 1 at landfall is likely, could be a bit stronger depending on how long it takes the storm to "reset" after the land interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 It was probably a bit boring for Josh being a minimal hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Does anyone have the EMCF and GFS gust products handy? Zeta looks to be likely to cause more inland tree damage deep into the SE states than any storm this season given it's fast forward motion once inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 A couple days ago this was expected to be sheared and weaken on approach to the gulf coast. Now the models are in the 960s to 970s. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 6 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: A couple days ago this was expected to be sheared and weaken on approach to the gulf coast. Now the models are in the 960s to 970s. This is why I never buy the first round of intensity estimates. Too many moving parts. Almost every expected strong storm comes in weaker, and vice versa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Core is intact and offshore. zeta looks quite healthy and symmetrical. Looks better than Delta did at same time...from what I recall... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 3 hours ago, Wild Weather Monger said: Does anyone have the EMCF and GFS gust products handy? Zeta looks to be likely to cause more inland tree damage deep into the SE states than any storm this season given it's fast forward motion once inland. These products are typically very overdone. That being said, the ECMFW and GFS both depict a significant inland wind event across central Alabama and Northern Georgia from Atlanta northwards. Essentially along and just north of the I-85 corridor. If you want to see fall leaves in the mountains, go today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 27, 2020 Author Share Posted October 27, 2020 These products are typically very overdone. That being said, the ECMFW and GFS both depict a significant inland wind event across central Alabama and Northern Georgia from Atlanta northwards. Essentially along and just north of the I-85 corridor. If you want to see fall leaves in the mountains, go today.Could be pretty potent ET transition over land well inland. 80-90 kt low-level jet at 900 hPa. Just depends on how strong convection is on the eastern flank of the circulation to mix down gusts as it phases with the mid-level low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, Windspeed said: 36 minutes ago, dwagner88 said: These products are typically very overdone. That being said, the ECMFW and GFS both depict a significant inland wind event across central Alabama and Northern Georgia from Atlanta northwards. Essentially along and just north of the I-85 corridor. If you want to see fall leaves in the mountains, go today. Could be pretty potent ET transition over land well inland. 80-90 kt low-level jet at 900 hPa. Just depends on how strong convection is on the eastern flank of the circulation to mix down gusts as it phases with the mid-level low. The GFS brings 50-70 mph gusts up through north Georgia, upstate SC, and the western half of NC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 MOB has a decent write up about some of the inland affects below in last nights ST disco... SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Thursday night/...Bands ofheavy rain and gusty winds will increase across the area onWednesday night as Zeta approaches the local area from thesouthwest. At this time, landfall is forecast to occur in southeastLouisiana sometime early Wednesday evening and then lift northeastacross southeast MS and into parts of southwest AL Wednesdaynight. Tropical storm conditions (strong wind gusts and heavyrain) will spread northeast across our forecast area Wednesdayevening into the early predawn morning hours Thursday. This systemwill be interacting with a cold front and broad region ofassociated diffluence aloft, so it is unlikely we see the typicaldecay after landfall that we would see in storms earlier in theseason. In fact, model soundings continue to suggest upwards of 80to 100 knots of flow in the eastern quadrant just off the surface(925-850 mb layer) persisting well after surface winds haveweakened as Zeta moves inland over interior southeast Mississippieven up into central Alabama. This will serve as a source ofmomentum for heavy convective bands to transport to the surface.Therefore, while locations along and west of I-65 will have thegreatest chance of seeing sustained tropical storm conditionsWednesday night, can`t rule out frequent strong gusts to tropicalstorm force farther east as well. As a result, a Tropical StormWatch has been issued for the entire local area. a weakening Zetaaccelerates quickly northeastward and by early Thursday morningZeta is expected to be over northeast AL and moving rapidly awayfrom the area with winds and rains gradually subsiding during theday on Thursday. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 3 hours ago, jbenedet said: Core is intact and offshore. zeta looks quite healthy and symmetrical. Looks better than Delta did at same time...from what I recall... Yeah that was my first thought when I looked today. Can anyone explain the conservative LF intensity forecasts? I can see the low OHC in the northern gulf inducing some weakening before landfall, but what's stopping ζ from just taking off in the meantime? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Zeta has developed an extremely impressive outflow pattern since last night. However, convection is struggling mightily near the core and a large moat has developed between the central convection and a cyclonically curved outer band. I believe we’ll see the outer band structure decay over the next 12 hours and an increase in convection over the center as that occurs. SST are sufficient and with the outflow pattern, I do expect strengthening to occur. However, the system took more of a hit over land than it seemed while over land. This spread out structure will take much longer to coalesce and see a quick uptick in intensity. I predict a slowly organizing system to peak and then stay at similar intensity through landfall. Probably on the order of 70-80kts. If this had a better structure I would be concerned of a stronger system but it will take considerable time to reorganize in its current state 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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