Windspeed Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 Going to go ahead and fire up a thread for this. Conditions look favorable and progs are up TCG will occur with this disturbance over the next 24-48 hrs. Close proximity to land and potential for a hurricane lingers. How fast TCG occurs and how quickly a core can develop will have a lot to say for downstream impacts. Based on the synoptic setup, this could be a EGOM / Florida Peninsula threat down the road. Obviously a threat to Cuba and the Caymans in the shorter term for significant flooding. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 The morning visible loop suggests there is a surface circulation centered near Grand Cayman. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 23, 2020 Author Share Posted October 23, 2020 Latest ASCAT shows an area of suspicious convergence that might be trying to close off low-level vorticity near Grand Cayman. See if convection can persist there through this evening. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 So the GFS was right after all... Shame it lost the threat after having it for run after run after run, several days in a row... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 Gladys 68 redux 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 06z HMON with a landfall around West Palm Beach and 12z HMON landfall in the Keys. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 Cherry now 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 2c worth... based on 12z/23 models and not necessarily looking at this correctly.. ICON is interesting. What is more interesting about the ICON is that Phase Diagram is opting turning to cold core over the central GMEX (attached). I think between the 25th and the 26th,,, whatever happens has to meander north to near FL where there seems to be more favorable SST, moisture, and possibly upper air pattern. Still looks like a small tight system but a couple of the hurricane models are offering 64kt at 925MB approaching or passing close to FL. I'm definitely interested in the phase diagrams-utility. For now the NAEFS suggests looking e and ne of FL but I see the Euro/ICON etc look more favorably upon central GMEX. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxpert55 Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 3 hours ago, wdrag said: 2c worth... based on 12z/23 models and not necessarily looking at this correctly.. ICON is interesting. What is more interesting about the ICON is that Phase Diagram is opting turning to cold core over the central GMEX (attached). I think between the 25th and the 26th,,, whatever happens has to meander north to near FL where there seems to be more favorable SST, moisture, and possibly upper air pattern. Still looks like a small tight system but a couple of the hurricane models are offering 64kt at 925MB approaching or passing close to FL. I'm definitely interested in the phase diagrams-utility. For now the NAEFS suggests looking e and ne of FL but I see the Euro/ICON etc look more favorably upon central GMEX. Seriously?? Ugh.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 Not holding my breath, but maybe am still holding my breath clinging onto something vague that may or may not happen. Sitting outside tonight feels like Fall here in the Tampa Bay area, but really by now we usually have a strong arctic front come through that chills us down for the year. Not yet. Sad to see 2020 season close, being such a storm voyeur, but very happy we have been spared. But maybe a yet to be Tropical Storm with some respectable winds, significant late season rain, and mild noticeable storm surge around here just to be a part of this 2020 season? I'm OK with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 Hello! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 Long ways to go... model confusion on which, or if even two small storms this coming week. GMEX looking more warm core in this mornings Cyclone Phase diagram but selecting a starting point is important. EPS is less emphatic for the Central Gulf Coast. So I do not know but I think it's good to present the broad range of possibilities. If you check the00z/24 EC op... you'd be concerned about just off there se coast of the USA. May add another graphic by 806AM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 This system's convection keeps shifting south. The broad, weak low center still appears to be north of the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 4 hours ago, NavarreDon said: Hello! There is no way that ends up being a quality landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 24, 2020 Author Share Posted October 24, 2020 There is no way that ends up being a quality landfall. Might become a quality system that devolves into a junk landfall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 5 hours ago, NavarreDon said: Hello! Central Gulf yet again?? I left noreaster territory in the hopes of nabbing a cane or two. This is definitely not my year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 46 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said: Central Gulf yet again?? I left noreaster territory in the hopes of nabbing a cane or two. This is definitely not my year. Central and Southern Florida new tourism ads should say tired of hurricanes...visit us! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 24, 2020 Author Share Posted October 24, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 The surface center can now be seen to the sw of Grand Cayman, where some new convection is bubbling up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 Per 12z/24 modeling... looking pretty good and meshing more closely to previous versions of the ICON ,if an MSY-MOB vicinity landfall indeed occurs. I see TWO is near 100% prob formation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 TD28 advisories incoming at 5pm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 3 hours ago, TradeWinds said: Central and Southern Florida new tourism ads should say tired of hurricanes...visit us! "Watch Gulf of Mexico hurricanes safely from your beachfront balconies in luxury vacation condos from Clearwater Beach to Sanibel Island!" Not far from the truth this year... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 24, 2020 Author Share Posted October 24, 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 242059 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 Satellite imagery and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that the broad area of low pressure that NHC has been following for the past couple of days has consolidated enough to be considered a tropical depression. GOES-16 1-minute data shows the center pretty clearly, with a new area of convection close by, and a minimum pressure of 1005 mb was reported by the aircraft in that area. The surface winds were generally fairly light within about a degree of the center, but data from the plane supports a 25-kt initial intensity. The tropical depression hasn't been moving much, but recently it has started at least drifting toward the north-northwest. A shortwave trough moving across the southeastern United States should keep the cyclone in a rather weak steering pattern during the next day or so, with only a northwest drift anticipated. Mid-level ridging should build over the northern Gulf of Mexico on Monday, forcing the depression to move faster to the west-northwest toward the Yucatan Peninsula or Channel. The ridge shouldn't last too long, however, with a substantial upper-level low forecast to eject out of the southwestern United States in a few days, causing the tropical cyclone to sharply turn to the north and northeast on Wednesday. The guidance isn't in very good agreement, and these types of trough ejection scenarios can have significant timing differences. At this time, the NHC track forecast leans a little more on the global models than the regional hurricane models, and is just west of the model consensus. While the large-scale shear is fairly light at the moment, the low- and mid-level circulations of the depression are not well-aligned. Thus, it might take some time for the system to strengthen despite low shear and very warm waters. In a day or two, the depression will likely have a structure that supports a faster rate of strengthening, and the intensification rate is increased while the cyclone is near the Yucatan. Although the forecast shows the system reaching hurricane strength in the southern Gulf of Mexico, this is rather uncertain given the potential land interaction and only a narrow area of favorable upper-level winds. A combination of cooler shelf waters and increasing shear will likely weaken the cyclone below hurricane strength as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast. However, strong tropical storms can still produce significant storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts, and residents in this region will yet again need to monitor another tropical cyclone moving northward across the Gulf. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm Sunday and could bring tropical storm conditions to extreme western Cuba on Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. There is also a risk of tropical storm conditions in the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday. 2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall is expected across portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the Keys. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding in urban areas. 3. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast as a tropical storm on Wednesday, and could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to areas from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of the depression and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 18.7N 83.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 19.0N 83.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 19.5N 83.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 20.1N 84.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 20.9N 85.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 27/0600Z 22.0N 87.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 23.4N 89.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 27.5N 91.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 35.5N 84.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 Seriously? Not that we are jealous this year in the Tampa Bay area, but hey come on... We always need the rain this time of year and it is typically late season TS rain that gives us the break to not be dry as a bone entering the winter. If we don't get some some strong winds we are setting up for a big problem next year, or the next, when the winds do blow. Like the wildfires out west where a few years with no fires sets up for a bad year. That does happen in Florida as well, especially up I-75 and I-4. I do not think Alabama is lacking rain this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 1 hour ago, Prospero said: "Watch Gulf of Mexico hurricanes safely from your beachfront balconies in luxury vacation condos from Clearwater Beach to Sanibel Island!" Not far from the truth this year... Lol. Yet my home insurance will somehow go up in FL next year. Quite interesting to see a storm projected to move northwest this time of year in the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 24, 2020 Share Posted October 24, 2020 46 minutes ago, TradeWinds said: Quite interesting to see a storm projected to move northwest this time of year in the Gulf. Yea, not too long ago on this forum that was considered over. But this is 2020. Things do shift quicker in the Fall, might land more East...whatever it is when it lands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 25, 2020 Author Share Posted October 25, 2020 The initial fix was very weak and the overall circulation was still broad. However, since recon left, strong convective bursting is occurring just SE of that fix. Convergence into these new strong cells may ramp up a new small vorticity maximum in rather short order. Have to watch if a core can develop out of this tomorrow. It's currently positioned perfectly in the NW Caribbean and will be there for several days until it gains latitude. Things could ramp up fairly rapidly by Monday. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 This is now Zeta. It seems like westward adjustments towards the Yucatan may be necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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