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“Let’s Talk Winter!


Steve
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45 minutes ago, osubrett2 said:

There are still pockets of warm air aloft that caused mixing around Dayton and now around Columbus. These pockets will cool completely overnight and moisture near CVG will move this way as snow. 850s shouldn't rise above 0C until 9-10am. That's when our risk of rain and melting starts.

Yep. I'm already back to snow. Hopefully it holds up through the morning.

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Had 2" on when I went to bed, been raining fairly hard since, maybe a half inch of crap left on the ground full of bullet holes. Radar shows the northern half of Montgomery & Greene counties back to snow, but its not according to my buddies, still rain.

chuckster you talking about the back side of the Friday system, looks like a wave forms and rides the cold wave into Sat, mood flakes for the weekend  :D

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31 minutes ago, JayPSU said:

Raining here in Westerville now.  Models all seem to thing we’ll see 3-5” on the backside.  Getting backside snow almost never happens though, so I’m skeptical.

This isn't really the typical backside snow that under-preforms here (not to say this won't under-perform, but there is reason to think otherwise).   There is a second vorticity max that forecast to deepen and crash down over the lakes.  ink.png.d8e91ba012aeec99d9d72a0daf752163.png 

You can see it nicely on water vapor: 1187625630_COD-GOES-East-continental-conus_08.20210131.160612-overmap-bars.thumb.gif.7ef3d1c8ef0527fd7d4cba3f0ea7c7cf.gif

PVA from this feature seems to provide ample lift to sustain snow showers across the region into Tuesday morning.  I can see some lake moisture enhancement creating some lollipops of 3+ over the course of the next 24-36 hours. 

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1 hour ago, Dustin said:

This isn't really the typical backside snow that under-preforms here (not to say this won't under-perform, but there is reason to think otherwise).   There is a second vorticity max that forecast to deepen and crash down over the lakes.  ink.png.d8e91ba012aeec99d9d72a0daf752163.png 

You can see it nicely on water vapor: 1187625630_COD-GOES-East-continental-conus_08.20210131.160612-overmap-bars.thumb.gif.7ef3d1c8ef0527fd7d4cba3f0ea7c7cf.gif

PVA from this feature seems to provide ample lift to sustain snow showers across the region into Tuesday morning.  I can see some lake moisture enhancement creating some lollipops of 3+ over the course of the next 24-36 hours. 

Do you think this will affect all of Ohio??  Thanks for brining this to our attention.  Also, in this current set up, why doesn't Toledo get lake affect.  Is it our Elevation??

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