CoachLB Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 HRRR doesn’t come in hot like that on 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 There's a lot of space between 850 and 700. Look at the sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I'm not a met, but I can see that no temps reach above 0 that far north, and temps stay in 20s on ground, so this model is just garbage to me. Something isn't right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 It's probably overdone, but it would be unwise to fully discount it. It's hardly without precedent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 It's right here Dilly. Everything to the right of my pink line between 850 and 700 on the NAM is above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Gino27 said: It's right here Dilly. Everything to the right of my pink line between 850 and 700 on the NAM is above freezing. Yea, just dont buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 16 minutes ago, Gino27 said: It's right here Dilly. Everything to the right of my pink line between 850 and 700 on the NAM is above freezing. Here are soundings for my location.. yet, same results. Sleet the entire time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, dilly84 said: Here are soundings for my location.. yet, same results. Sleet the entire time.. . That's after the cold air crashes in and flips you back to snow. Here's for the part that has you mixing. It's right on the edge. These soundings are in celcius so you'd want 3-4 degrees F colder to be comfortable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: Don't worry, the GFS will come in and be a Benzo. I guess just never seen such cold wanna be half sleet. Not when the path the low follows is in cold air the entire time. But hell, learn something new all the time. OH is about as bad as Florida is for snow(sarcasm obviously) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 So far, HRRR isn't horrible but still about 8-12hrs out of its good range.. wrf both good, sref good. Onto GFS and RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, dilly84 said: So far, HRRR isn't horrible but still about 12hrs out of its range.. wrf both good, sref good. Onto GFS and RGEM. Rgem holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoachLB said: Rgem holds Hope so. Not updated in Bell yet. But yea it hits me hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, dilly84 said: Hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I would say the nam lost a bit of cred. When a model is swinging like a pendulum it's probably time to discount it. Pretty much radar time now anyways. Not changing my prediction....but Im fully prepared to go down with the s.s. euro if we hit a sleetberg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDoppler4TnySandz Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Can't express how much of relief it is to see that WV icon popping up in the most recent message on the thread preview. Totals aside--- the winds combined with (what?) 6" over a six hour period = criteria for Blizzard Warning? -- isn't there some standard here? Have to believe there wouldn't be wide-spread conditions for that criteria... NO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Rgem held and that’s about it. Gfs puts everyone near I-71 in the danger zone. I can feel this one slipping away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 9 minutes ago, Gino27 said: Rgem held and that’s about it. Gfs puts everyone near I-71 in the danger zone. I can feel this one slipping away... Like Pondo said, gonna be globals vs Americans. I usually strictly stick with models, but gut is telling me to not believe this sleet storm stuff american models are pushing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 hours ago, dilly84 said: Both same time period. Hr27.. how does the sleet get so far north on radar portion, while 850s and 2m temps are below 0°c? Warm layer is above 850. Check a sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, Stebo said: Warm layer is above 850. Check a sounding. Did. Learn to read. Sorry, too marginal, don't buy it. I'll burn with the ship if need be. No way sleet gets to I71/I70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, dilly84 said: Did. Learn to read. That’s below 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, Gino27 said: That’s below 850. Go read again. I posted the sounding. Again, dont buy it. Right directly on the line. Id bet money my location sees less than 1/10" of sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 9 minutes ago, dilly84 said: Go read again. I posted the sounding. Again, dont buy it. Right directly on the line. Id bet money my location sees less than 1/10" of sleet We’ll see how it goes. To me that sounding is sleet but anything can happen at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Man you guys got the patient buried and embalmed before the operation Food for thought...the anecdotal kind 1. When aren't we on the line? I mean that's how we roll. 2. More often than not, these nail biters that we follow every last model run on tend to work out. Feb 2014, Dec. 04. Ironically the ones we think we're safe on are the ones that punch us in the gut, Feb 07 comes to mind. 3. This storm has another one right on its ass, which favors more progression. 4. First true arctic press involved all season. 5. Expansive snow cover over the entire state. Relax, this is what makes this hobby so interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 16 minutes ago, buckeye said: Man you guys got the patient buried and embalmed before the operation Food for thought...the anecdotal kind 1. When aren't we on the line? I mean that's how we roll. 2. More often than not, these nail biters that we follow every last model run on tend to work out. Feb 2014, Dec. 04. Ironically the ones we think we're safe on are the ones that punch us in the gut, Feb 07 comes to mind. 3. This storm has another one right on its ass, which favors more progression. 4. First true arctic press involved all season. 5. Expansive snow cover over the entire state. Relax, this is what makes this hobby so interesting. It's nowcast time anyway. Forger the models at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 15 minutes ago, Gino27 said: We’ll see how it goes. To me that sounding is sleet but anything can happen at this point. How much would it even matter anyway? If the temperature profile actually looks like that, the flake quality would be piss poor/rimed and likely result in a period of inefficient accumulation, until it cools off. On another note, welcome back buckeye. I have a special place in my heart for the original members of the boards, of which he is one. Left, right, whatever, it doesn't matter, because the common passion for weather trumps all in my book. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I'd draw my sleet line from about Cambridge to Chillicothe, but wouldn't rule out some pingers in Columbus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, buckeye said: I'd draw my sleet line from about Cambridge to Chillicothe, but wouldn't rule out some pingers in Columbus I'm dead even between Marysville and Dublin so technically I could be safe, but I keep thinking of that big January storm in 2019 where I just rained, rained, rained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: On another note, welcome back buckeye. I have a special place in my heart for the original members of the boards, of which he is one. Left, right, whatever, it doesn't matter, because the common passion for weather trumps all in my book. yup, 25 years plus with some of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, Gino27 said: I'm dead even between Marysville and Dublin so technically I could be safe, but I keep thinking of that big January storm in 2019 where I just rained, rained, rained. Yea that one last year sucked but we did get some redemption towards the end. That was more of a dryslot situation where we ended up with hours of drizzle. This one looks to have pretty heavy rates with the main low coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, buckeye said: yup, 25 years plus with some of us. I was on some of the weather forums going back to Weather.com and NEwx. Around 1995-96 I think was the first big winter I remember on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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