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“Let’s Talk Winter!


Steve
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4 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

It appears to have been an outlier at 12z so it adjusted at 18z at least. It had less than 5” all the way into DE County.

Probabilities are dropping for higher totals, too.  This is looking more and more like a special for I-75 and points west.  Maybe I was way too early with the total calls.  

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4 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

Probabilities are dropping for higher totals, too.  This is looking more and more like a special for I-75 and points west.  Maybe I was way too early with the total calls.  

I don’t know. I think NAM is playing catch-up. Heaviest may end up NW of C-bus but I still think high end totals possible.

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I think the NAM (especially the 12z) was a bit too stingy farther east, but with an 850mb low track up or just a tad east of I-71, I'd expect the heaviest swath to end up solidly west of I-71 and I'd also expect it to sleet / dry slot farther north than people want. Could see localized max amounts over a foot in west-central or NW OH, and where it is all snow Monday night it will be downright nasty with gusty winds, falling temperatures and moderate-heavy snow. Here's my guess...definitely hedged a bit NW, but there is bust potential either way along that gradient. 

681394271_2-14snowmap.thumb.png.57ea2d4a4ec09b9f54a64b7e1bb9024f.png

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