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November 2020 Discussion


Bostonseminole
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34 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

One more month for a good ice storm, maybe a month and a half.  After that it gets harder. 

The 2 worst ice storms, by far (1953 and 1998) came on Jan. 8-9, a solid month and a half from today's date.  For SNE, December seems the prime time, at least for the past 90 years.

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13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Maybe but the guidance distinctly has a problematic flow into Canada still present in the first few days of December....which it then backs off as we get into the post-12.5 range....now maybe that's wrong and the amplitude out west verifies sharper prior to 12/5....then ok, fine, we could increase the odds of a snow event if that occurred.

Obviously the extra 7-10 days of climo also helps if we're comparing 12/2 to 12/11 or something...no denying that.

I am not sure what exactly you are referring to to make that 'distinction' ...and you may be right :)

...oh, cool - thunder just now... wow

but, if the GEFs tele's are right in that which I posted above... I suggest any off-set distinction is correctable ...that would be my guess..  That was implicit in my post - bigger one .. - up there...that I'm not too worried about any daily-scaled bad pattern.  I mean I seriously hope you are not using the operational Euro for anything beyond D5.5 in that mess - ew...

I like times like these ( lol ) ..it brings meaning to my otherwise pointless existence as a tortured love lorn victim of the gods ... I can hide in high- claims based on my special ( as in helmet and drool cup) aspergery vision, and than challenge to see if they come to realization.  Mind you ...said competition is only against myself... Even when I'm more right about these sort of ideas ... I can honestly see vestiges of the other notion were still sort of there? 

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I am not sure what exactly you are referring to to make that 'distinction' ...and you may be right :)

...oh, cool - thunder just now... wow

but, if the GEFs tele's are right in that which I posted above... I suggest any off-set distinction is correctable ...that would be my guess..  That was implicit in my post - bigger one .. - up there...that I'm not too worried about any daily-scaled bad pattern.  I mean I seriously hope you are not using the operational Euro for anything beyond D5.5 in that mess - ew...

I like times like these ( lol ) ..it brings meaning to my otherwise pointless existence as a tortured love lorn victim of the gods ... I can hide in high- claims based on my special ( as in helmet and drool cup) aspergery vision, and than challenge to see if they come to realization.  

He just means that Canada is filled with Pacific air.

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There could always be something that sneaks in, but “Tele” me when this is better.

 

CDC449C0-EEBA-4DBE-8A7B-7D7C22E5E5FC.png

That's interesting, Scott- yeah...

It certainly does not fit the CPC derivatives - LOL... omg, it's actually diametrically out of phase with this - repost of my earlier:

pan.jpg.771290d8e6b80dc7379035bb94e97a2e.jpg...head scratcher - ...  well... okay, if this graphic shit is more accurate than the CPC curve here, than no problem... Late golf light sweaters and shorts with forsythia bud swelling ...

Having said that, I usually do pretty well to take the EOF version immediately above and go with that... The anomaly product could be a different metric feed-in/and layout - hell...maybe we're looking at apples and oranges in some sense .. Nah, actually the CPC uses the geopotential anomaly in their EOFs so that only begs the question - wtf!?

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

That's interesting, Scott- yeah...

It certainly does not fit the CPC derivatives - LOL... omg, it's actually diametrically out of phase with this - repost of my earlier:

pan.jpg.771290d8e6b80dc7379035bb94e97a2e.jpg...head scratcher - ...  well... okay, if this graphic shit is more accurate than the CPC curve here, than no problem... Late golf light sweaters and shorts with forsythia bud swelling ...

Having said that, I usually do pretty well to take the EOF version immediately above and go with that... The anomaly product could be a different metric feed-in/and layout - hell...maybe we're looking at apples and oranges in some sense ..

Well that is a 11-15 day average and I think overall PNA will come up....but there isn’t much cold air at that time. That’s all I mean. Maybe you get a random trough diving in that is well timed and lucky, but I guess my point is that overall...I think we need to wait. 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well that is a 11-15 day average and I think overall PNA will come up....but there isn’t much cold air at that time. That’s all I mean. Maybe you get a random trough diving in that is well timed and lucky, but I guess my point is that overall...I think we need to wait. 

Snowless Dec certainly a possibility this year unfortunately 

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Just enough 3km CAPE poking into the Cape with more than enough shear for a possible tornado. Also, check out the rapid increase in lightning just prior to the tightening couplet. Sometimes that can be a tell take sign for potential tornado genesis 

 

I was just about to say a ton of lightning appeared out of no where in SE MA all of a sudden 

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There was an almost identical scenario down there in spring/...or early summer?   That one verified... 

Regardless of ground truth,  wtf - to do this twice in the same year, opposing seasons is a curiosity -

CC got 3 tornadoes in 2019... not sure if there were any this year

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