November 2020 Discussion

[MJO812]

I remember when it use to snow in December

[Spanks45]

18z GEFS looked pretty good at the end of the run...

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

There's always 2014-2015... trash until late January.  People trying to sled, coming home muddy when it's 2" of glop on top of dirt.  Meltdowns, bickering and blaming.  Then the stars align for 4-weeks.

Lol...some were constantly saying Nickel and dimes was the theme of that winter, and we’d better enjoy the piddlings cuz it’s all we’re gonna have/get. 
 

And it was the very end of January(27th) at that.   As we know Things can Change, and fast. And sometimes they don’t.  
 

It’s early, very early. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

12 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

18z GEFS looked pretty good at the end of the run...

It often does.  

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah ... all that, and .. what are y’all really grousing for ?

is it because the winter May be uninspired, or is it because there isn’t an idealized imaginative hyperbolic pattern in the models like right now. 

[Dan76]

8 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I remember when it use to snow 

Fixed

[tamarack]

12 hours ago, rclab said:

My apologies. I was in my usual state of blissful ignorance until I checked some stats. Caribou had a little over 68 inches in 1961-62. Nearly 9 inches less than Baltimore’s 2010 totals. I couldn’t get the Caribou 2010 total. I believe Phineas will be a snow charm for both locales. As always .....

No sweat.  CAR had 70.3" in 09-10, their 3rd lowest snow season in their 80 year POR.  61-62 is 2nd lowest at 68.5" and 43-44 is lowest, though a bit uncertain because March data is missing.  Using Fort Kent's 3/44 snow would give a CAR total of 59.5".

[CoastalWx]

GEFS and EPS trying to a little more Aleutian trough look and pumping up the PNA. We need to build a little more cold in Canada, but that’s been a subtle trend I’ve noticed. 

[CoastalWx]

[STILL N OF PIKE]

^That GFS ens Map looks good 

 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

^That GFS ens Map looks good 

 

EPS map is doable too though I'd rather have the GEFS look....the EPS has been trending toward the GEFS look though the past 2 runs....hopefully it continues. Still out near the end of the run so obviously a lot can change....but if we have something between the GEFS/EPS look, that can definitely produce some winter wx events.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

^That GFS ens Map looks good 

 

The season of ‘day 15 maps look good’. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The season of ‘day 15 maps look good’. 

It’s a step away from the  Bridge Jumping Pig look. 

[CoastalWx]

It’s definitely been a trend. Frankly, I haven’t looked deeply as to what is driving it, but this wasn’t  just one run. 

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The season of ‘day 15 maps look good’. 

Glass half full:

AK pig showed up, but then as we get closer, it looks maybe like it's transient? Imagine the disdain if a good pattern showed up but then ensembles were breaking it down after 6-8 days. This is the reverse....bad pattern shows up but it seems to be breaking down quickly.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It’s a step away from the  Bridge Jumping Pig look. 

Yes it is.
 

And hey, it’s all anybody has to look at so if there’s some better looks out there towards the end..better that than all Pig all the time imo.  
 

And as Has been stated a few times..it’s November...so let’s get the Pig now over the next 2-3 weeks, and then have it transition out, AS we transition into our winter Climo.  

[Spanks45]

12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The season of ‘day 15 maps look good’. 

Keep pumping that PNA ridge and I will feel a bit better....Alaska needed some cold and snow to start so our air once the ridge builds would be colder. Can't cook that region early on or we won't have any cold air to work with later into winter right? Mid December to February 1st winter is fine with me....

[CoastalWx]

Just poking around, maybe the easterlies near the dateline and MJO trying to move east will shuffle things around a bit. 
 

 

[CoastalWx]

Other than a small interruption at the end of October, you can see we’ve had a pretty strong underlying signal in the IO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Glass half full:

AK pig showed up, but then as we get closer, it looks maybe like it's transient? Imagine the disdain if a good pattern showed up but then ensembles were breaking it down after 6-8 days. This is the reverse....bad pattern shows up but it seems to be breaking down quickly.

I would be surprised of it had staying power. Obviously the risk is heightened this season, but I don't think that a 2011-2012 style wall-to-wall pig was ever the most likely outcome.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Other than a small interruption at the end of October, you can see we’ve had a pretty strong underlying signal in the IO.

I was just going to ask what the tropical PAC was doing....and that might explain it. MJO itself seems to be all over the map depending on the guidance you use. Some of have it in the COD while others like the Canadian have it ripping into phase 7....but if there's a shift in the IO forcing, then it's probably enough to shake it up downstream.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I was just going to ask what the tropical PAC was doing....and that might explain it. MJO itself seems to be all over the map depending on the guidance you use. Some of have it in the COD while others like the Canadian have it ripping into phase 7....but if there's a shift in the IO forcing, then it's probably enough to shake it up downstream.

Yeah we know MJO diagnostics themselves can vary from guidance, but if you look at the chart with the VP potential....you can see the IO has been active. You’d think that if we shift the easterlies near the dateline like it shows, maybe it migrates towards the maritime contingent or even better.....further east?

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah we know MJO diagnostics themselves can vary from guidance, but if you look at the chart with the VP potential....you can see the IO has been active. You’d think that if we shift the easterlies near the dateline like it shows, maybe it migrates towards the maritime contingent or even better.....further east?

I think the forcing will be more representative of an east-based la nina during December, which would imply lift closer to the maritime region, as you  suggested...but its funny that Will is referencing the how people would be bridge jumping if a the end to a good pattern was in sight because we will likely see the usual suspects do just that later in December and early January. The VP potential should migrate back to the west as la nina matures, so the favorable change should be temporary.

[J Paul Gordon]

2011-2012, 2001-2002, looks like another memorable non winter? 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, J Paul Gordon said:

2011-2012, 2001-2002, looks like another memorable non winter? 

 

[cleetussnow]

24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

We need a once month snow vitamin this winter DJFM.  Nothing big necessarily but we got blanked for a long period last winter, so a minimum but regular dose of vitamin S would go a long way for mental health.  Volatility is our friend in this regard.  

 

PS I recognize Watkins Glen, the straight way coming off the carousel. My old stomping grounds.  Bring back F1!  

[Snowcrazed71]

Okay so here's the question. Comparing between the Euro and GFS ensembles. If we look back over the past month who did better with their future predictions? 

[SouthCoastMA]

You guys do this every year - Do yourselves a favor and stop worrying about the models til early December. It will save you a lot of frustration. (not directed toward the mets, but the winter weenies)

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

You guys do this every year - Do yourselves a favor and stop worrying about the models til early December. It will save you a lot of frustration. (not directed toward the mets, but the winter weenies)

Even first week of December is pretty hostile from a climo standpoint...yeah we get a few large exceptions like last year, 2003, etc, but for the most part we really start getting historically better storms after the first week or so.

Even in a lot of our fast start La Ninas like 1970, 1975, 2007, 2008, 2017, etc....the snows really come in more toward mid month or in the case of 2008 and 1975, less than a week before Xmas. It's still a positive sign to see the pattern trying to shuffle though in the first week of December because if it gets pushed out a week, then we're still only into mid-December when snowfall climo is ramping up quickly.

[SouthCoastMA]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Even first week of December is pretty hostile from a climo standpoint...yeah we get a few large exceptions like last year, 2003, etc, but for the most part we really start getting historically better storms after the first week or so.

Even in a lot of our fast start La Ninas like 1970, 1975, 2007, 2008, 2017, etc....the snows really come in more toward mid month or in the case of 2008 and 1975, less than a week before Xmas. It's still a positive sign to see the pattern trying to shuffle though in the first week of December because if it gets pushed out a week, then we're still only into mid-December when snowfall climo is ramping up quickly.

Yep I agree. I usually start looking ahead in early December to see if there's any hopes for mid/late December for my own sanity. Obviously if I see chatter of a favorable pattern I'll check in and invest a bit.  But I also live down here, where peak climo favors mid to late Feb.