backedgeapproaching Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: 12z RGEM is an absolute mauling here. Over a foot. I am pretty close to Canada so I figure the RGEM should be pretty accurate... right? LOL Sure, pick your favorite and weeniest and just call it a day. Early BTV call.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 GYX 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 6 minutes ago, PhineasC said: 12z RGEM is an absolute mauling here. Over a foot. I am pretty close to Canada so I figure the RGEM should be pretty accurate... right? LOL I have been bullish on Monday Tuesday for you for a week. I hope so 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 2 hours ago, dendrite said: Pouring oak leaves this morning. Efficient way to leaf drop,before and after 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 The RGEM actually has a sfc trough hanging back across the mtns...that would really enhance the upslope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 It really is too bad that it wasn't a month from now....yesterdays storm combined with tomorrows would have been epic. Note: I'm imagining even a month from now, tomorrows system would wrap up off ACK and not Presque Isle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Could make a run at 70 in spots later next week. Quite the flip from this weekend and even early in the week with that brutal cold shot on Monday/Tuesday. I don't think it's going to last ... not that you asked ( I realize you're just leveling the comment - ) But, I do still believe that warm pattern R-wave folds over ... possibly dramatically... mid month. I wonder about corrective storminess closer to the 20th too - but it's exotically far out there..admittedly. The problems I have with sustaining warmth are: N/stream expressive hemisphere makes any sustained subtropical ridging both plausible, but also susceptible along the N rims for transitory pattern behavior. If we add to that the a progressive/velocity surplus hemisphere, that lends to non-fixate R-wave constructs. I just don't see us situating a ridge and have it be unperturbed to "sustain" anything for that matter. Being realistic: this snow wasn't gonna last - you/we know that...of course. But, we need to 'unjazz' from yesterday and think of this for what it is... But what is it: that's an interesting question... Comparing this to the 300 year climate observation, this is rare... Comparing this to the local climate spanning 20 years, I argue it is not rare - no way... We've had half ... ( at least ) of all Octobers featuring either synoptic snow, or... patterns certainly favorable of supporting synoptic snow - but merely happened to dodge the timing in this latter essence... But less than even synoptic ... these packing pellet bouncer showers way waay more frequently than the previous paradigm before the turn of the Century. And, it has also coincide with the two things that I find increasingly more difficult to believe is just random chance: The hockey-stick climate acceleration; The velocity surplus and hemispheric wind flux anomalies sendong commercial airline traffic on sonic speed trajectories across the N Pac and Atl Basins... ( I took the liberty adding this statement but you get my meaning...) Nah, the former lends to the latter ...due to HC expanding N and "compressing" the hypsometry of the hemisphere in the means... and this then causes the flow to 'pile up' so to speak and 'fold over' western Canada at transition seasons. Octobers and Aprils are more winter at times the January now... "at times" - not all the times... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 Nice cane into Florida on the GFS on the 8th 9th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Efficient way to leaf drop,before and after It was a bit surreal doing a late night dog walk last night and listening to the sound of frozen leaves hitting the ground. It was like this new sound that I had never heard before. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 Lots of snow dropping from the trees at this point with the warm sun. I can only imagine how warm it is in Tip's car. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 42 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Lots of snow dropping from the trees at this point with the warm sun. I can only imagine how warm it is in Tip's car. My back deck in the shade is a skating rink 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 54 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Nice cane into Florida on the GFS on the 8th 9th Ya we have to watch the remants combined with a cold front I think.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 Beautiful afternoon! 45° and bright blues. Getting yardwork done has more than made up for the lack of snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 Looks like this Invest is ahead of the popular global model's development curve ... Not sure what the tropical specific ensembles look like but TPC has 'near 100%' and have all but already declared it. Thing is, it's got 'that look' of having no interest in holding back - it's curling over pretty coherently at multiple levels, and given to low shear and high OHC ...it's seems it's a candidate for exceeding intensity expectations - we'll see on that. Looks a bit like a Wilma analog for slowing as it near Honduras ...possible meandering over the hottest waters in the solar system outside of deep penetration Jupiter, then being pulled out.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 The second half of November is looking better and better. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 1 minute ago, weathafella said: The second half of November is looking better and better. Do tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 3 minutes ago, SnowEMass said: Do tell Epo and suggestion of east based NAO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 Weenie question, what does the 12z Euro show for Monday/Tuesday up north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 12 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Weenie question, what does the 12z Euro show for Monday/Tuesday up north? Looks great for upslope. The little coastal in the gulf of Maine should give you a few inches on top of that. Hope everyone in Randolph voted early! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 wow was that a warm Euro run - ...I mean, as a singular complexion not considering much else, that's an impressive warm signal for that calendar range - gee, about equal and opposite SD as just what occurred ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 Might have to watch for a touch of FZDZ or -FZRA very late tonight in nrn ORH and adjacent NH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 18z NAM looks decent. Goes apeshit with that second low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 1 hour ago, PhineasC said: Weenie question, what does the 12z Euro show for Monday/Tuesday up north? From what I’m seeing the flow for upslope looks pretty uniform with height and not a ton of low level veering. It looks fairly unblocked which is better for you and I... the snow should be able to propagate downwind of the crest axis with ease. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: From what I’m seeing the flow for upslope looks pretty uniform with height and not a ton of low level veering. It looks fairly unblocked which is better for you and I... the snow should be able to propagate downwind of the crest axis with ease. Sounds good! I think we will need to see what the coastal does. Looks like you are primed for good upslope either way, the better runs for me get the low off Maine more involved with some direct synoptic stuff. NAM hasn’t been as excited about that the last few runs but globals and RGEM still seem to like it. Either way seems like a great setup for a few inches across the northern tier. All models agree on that now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 The 3k NAM really looks good for Northern NH with the coastal. Solid wrap-around depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 9 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Sounds good! I think we will need to see what the coastal does. Looks like you are primed for good upslope either way, the better runs for me get the low off Maine more involved with some direct synoptic stuff. NAM hasn’t been as excited about that the last few runs but globals and RGEM still seem to like it. Either way seems like a great setup for a few inches across the northern tier. All models agree on that now. Yeah I think you’ll do better on the upslope than models think. Can’t take them at their word, it’s more just looking for the signal. You’ve got 3-4000ft behind you to WNW it looks like... unblocked flow will just dump that snow on the Lee side (you). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah I think you’ll do better on the upslope than models think. Can’t take them at their word, it’s more just looking for the signal. You’ve got 3-4000ft behind you to WNW it looks like... unblocked flow will just dump that snow on the Lee side (you). You are lucky with your NWS office. They went into a lot of detail on this upslope event and pinpointed exact areas. The Gray, ME discussion was far less exciting, to put it mildly. Basically just said “there could be accumulating snow in the mountains.” Okie dokie lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: You are lucky with your NWS office. They went into a lot of detail on this upslope event and pinpointed exact areas. The Gray, ME discussion was far less exciting, to put it mildly. Basically just said “there could be accumulating snow in the mountains.” Okie dokie lol Oh man...you're going to trigger MEkster and Legro. At least neither of them did the LR disco. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 31 minutes ago, PhineasC said: You are lucky with your NWS office. They went into a lot of detail on the upslope event and pinpointed exact areas. The Gray, ME discussion was far less exciting, to put it mildly. Basically just said “there could be accumulating snow in the mountains.” Okie dokie lol I think seeing is believing and the fact that BTV can see the mountains 17 miles east of their office, and the fact they live up against those mountains, brings a lot more focus to it. There’s also a decent population that lives in these areas, and the most heavily traveled highway in VT is the 89 stretch from Montpelier to Burlington... right past J.Spins house in the max upslope zone. Like they can’t ignore it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 1 hour ago, PhineasC said: You are lucky with your NWS office. They went into a lot of detail on this upslope event and pinpointed exact areas. The Gray, ME discussion was far less exciting, to put it mildly. Basically just said “there could be accumulating snow in the mountains.” Okie dokie lol Get used to it! We’ve had this conversation with @OceanStWx. It’s a different world for us. They cover a HUGE area from coastal locations to the Whites to what’s essentially Boston suburbs. And the differences that a few miles make in the Whites are staggering, there is just no way it can be captured. That said, it makes it kind of fun. After a storm, we often get snow that lingers for days, and it’s not in the forecast. It’s very satisfying for the inner weenie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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