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November 2020 Discussion


Bostonseminole
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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I find it interesting we’ll have a subtropical jet involved over the next couple of weeks. Definitely not a Niña look at all. So if you can time that with marginal cold, it’s not impossible for an interior event. I know Steve said that yesterday. 

Gotta love how things look more el nino in December, but rest assured it will be full blown la nina in February....the shit climo dream team.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Gotta love how things look more el nino in December, but rest assured it will be full blown la nina in February....the shit climo dream team.

LOL....yep. Gonna get the opposite of '17-'18 (Nina December and El Nino mega-late winter that winter)

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14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Can’t joke about snow anymore. :( 

Wasn’t being any way...just saying that it’s never a done deal being so early that’s all.  As you and Steve said, if we can time something right going forward...who knows??
 

 I’m choosing to be a bit more optimistic at this point..

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

LOL....yep. Gonna get the opposite of '17-'18 (Nina December and El Nino mega-late winter that winter)

I wonder if the Hadley cell has anything to do with this? I have noticed some faster geopotential mediums the past few seasons...what could be muting ENSO?

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Wasn’t being any way...just saying that it’s never a done deal being so early that’s all.  As you and Steve said, if we can time something right going forward...who knows??
 

 I’m choosing to be a bit more optimistic at this point..

Always easier pre-Thanksgiving. lol Once regression makes you its red headed stepchild by the new year, all bets are off.

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9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wonder if the Hadley cell has anything to do with this? I have noticed some faster geopotential mediums the past few seasons...what could be muting ENSO?

I think it’s the tropical convection in the IO and what looks to be some forcing near Hawaii. 

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9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel like some are unnecessarily writing off December...most of the guidance for this area is like +2 and active. That can still work...especially for the interior.

Ray I admire your courage and perseverance ...if not desperation to at last see rationality emerge, but doing so in a din of withdraw-addled weather-model codependent addicted products of modern psychotropic e-zombie-ism ... mmm probably doesn't end in a success paradigm -

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I'm not buying it this time ( 00z nuanced optimism..)   

In the dailies we've been in this betrayal mode ... for years now. Ha...  48-hour sort of oscillatory .. clad favorable appeals seem to eerily know when it is time to swing back, thus optimized street cred reduction cycles ... Lol. 

Anyway, I'm not riding along with that. Put up or shut up mode is in effect! 

The Euro's ensemble mean - based EPO was NOT encouraging for cold loading just yesterday, so case in point, what does the operational Euro do?  turns around at 00z and offers hope for lovelorn winter -SAD types..   - Nope.  Put up or shut up... 

Sides, the GFS - ugh I have to admit ... - looks like a better fit for the history of the world and climate over the last decade plus of maelstrom rage.   

The GGEM is trying to conserve way too much curvature in the mid-stream jet latitudes as it ejects that D4.5 fantasy east, and over the top of 585 Atlanta Georgia heights...  Florida, adjacent Gulf... Bermuda...the whole region is under a ridge that isn't  merely ephemeral in the sense of synoptic transience.  It is in part a construction of Ray's sweaty balls HC love-making session ... and with so much heated passion, the GGEM's sell gets compressed into thin streak of accelerated cirro-stratus.. Not curved into a neggie tilted blue bomb.

The Euro is sort of doing too much/suspiciously looking conserved curvature too ...and ends up with a hard to believe SW flow set up out there D9... It's a bad year when your D9er Euro fantasies are Lakes cutters... 

You're not triggering a La Nina because the forcing latitudes are buried -

I realize your incredulity is ribbing ...? cool.

Keep in mind, I'm also just supplying hypothesis to explain these failing ENSO atmospheres ... That's all...

 ..but the SST distribution and easterly wind anomalies are because the HC is stronger than it was from 1901 to 1990, and that is mimicking La Nina ?

Whatever it is... I still aver that the oceanic ENSO-atmospheric physics are not really coupled.  If La Nina was in fact hemispherically integrable - meaning "REAL" ...we wouldn't be fielding NINO looks.  You know, frankly ...I'm not even sure that's what that is...It almost just looks like crazy piece of shit modeling incapability to deal with anthropomorphic planetary destruction -

 

 

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