The 4 Seasons Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 Well it didn't snow here and NYC and LI and the islands...so...extreme southern NE/tri-state blockbuster winter? Logic. I can't handle a D+ Winter, an F winter, and another F winter back to back to back..just can't do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 5 hours ago, Spanks45 said: All that blocking (it is on the ensembles as well). Unfortunately there is no cold air anywhere nearby. So we end up with weather similar to May instead of late November To be fair, late November most years is not all that cold in SNE. So that is not that big of a deal for late November imo. Again that’s two weeks from now...so who knows what we have by then anyway? And Late May this year was cold and dank..horrible. And so was 1st half of June...then it snapped and man did the Heat come on in a huge(record breaking) way..all summer long. Things can change fast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 35 with flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 33F now and grass whitening up. Went from graupel over to nickel sized flakes. Looks like 1500ft is seeing winter this evening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 50 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: To be fair, late November most years is not all that cold in SNE. So that is not that big of a deal for late November imo. Again that’s two weeks from now...so who knows what we have by then anyway? And Late May this year was cold and dank..horrible. And so was 1st half of June...then it snapped and man did the Heat come on in a huge(record breaking) way..all summer long. Things can change fast.... I know, hopefully we get a reverse of last year. Long range looked great, but we never got it...but we are asking 2020 to actually be positive, so who knows. We can all put this aside when we are enjoying our first winter storm warning of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 Just Horrible. And WHY has no one talked about that this hit the Isle de Providencia at Category 5 Strength? 98% of the buildings there are heavily damaged! https://twitter.com/RousselJulio/status/1328486375017095168?s=20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natedizel Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 3 hours ago, Spanks45 said: I know, hopefully we get a reverse of last year. Long range looked great, but we never got it...but we are asking 2020 to actually be positive, so who knows. We can all put this aside when we are enjoying our first winter storm warning of the season. Nah winter is done man. Unless it comes at night you have sun angle to worry about now.........................wait a minute 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 Just Horrible. And WHY has no one talked about that this hit the Isle de Providencia at Category 5 Strength? 98% of the buildings there are heavily damaged! https://twitter.com/RousselJulio/status/1328486375017095168?s=20Only covid matters 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 6 hours ago, TheSnowman said: Just Horrible. And WHY has no one talked about that this hit the Isle de Providencia at Category 5 Strength? 98% of the buildings there are heavily damaged! https://twitter.com/RousselJulio/status/1328486375017095168?s=20 because this is a New England forum and that hurricane ain’t happening here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 11 hours ago, greenmtnwx said: You guys are too much. We could just as easily have a record-breaking snowfall season or futility. You just never know. Long -range forecasting is fun and sometimes useful, but it's glorified guesswork at this point. A month from now we could be staring down a split PV AND a monster -NAO, or a historic SE ridge and an Alaskan pig. Either is just as likely as the other. lol. Stick around my friend. You ain't seen nothing yet, especially if futility comes to fruition over the following weeks and beyond. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 6 hours ago, TheSnowman said: Just Horrible. And WHY has no one talked about that this hit the Isle de Providencia at Category 5 Strength? 98% of the buildings there are heavily damaged! https://twitter.com/RousselJulio/status/1328486375017095168?s=20 Whatever was in that tweet was so horrible it was removed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 6 hours ago, TheSnowman said: Just Horrible. And WHY has no one talked about that this hit the Isle de Providencia at Category 5 Strength? 98% of the buildings there are heavily damaged! https://twitter.com/RousselJulio/status/1328486375017095168?s=20 I guess we don’t care one iota. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 6 hours ago, TheSnowman said: Just Horrible. And WHY has no one talked about that this hit the Isle de Providencia at Category 5 Strength? 98% of the buildings there are heavily damaged! https://twitter.com/RousselJulio/status/1328486375017095168?s=20 cuz it's not really landing in a populated area, mostly just swamps and woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 Also there is a tropical headquarters, where it can be talked about as much as one wants. This is New England as someone alluded to a few posts back, so that’s why it isn’t being talked about much. Makes sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 We joke about the pig but it moves in and out and in and....on guidance and has for days. Yesterday the end of the eps was particularly bad. Today we’re with the anti pig d6 on the 0Z run, high water pig d10-12 with some signs of a trend towards relaxing at the end....we wax we wane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 Agreed Jerry. Good perspective. Past 7 days is scrap shoot anyways imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 Mowvember Morches on. +6.6F through mid-month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 I don't know why I keep bothering to update/push a colder/stormier profile over this side of Hemisphere ... ' shit keeps doing this .. How about this "La Nina" structure, huh? ... wtf This straight up looks to me like my hypothesis back in August - sorry to say. That the "La Nina" ?? ... it's not coupled to the atmosphere. I think NCEP is full of shit in their PDF too ...trying to negotiate an interpretation, is what's up with them, because there is no way in f'ing hell this below ... If the general hemispheric eddy was truly coupled to the La Nina ... we wouldn't have EL F'ING NINO JETS COMING INTO CALIFORNIA! ... assholes... Stop selling interpretations, put down the coffee and Solitaire, and do your jobs. Oh shit I'm kidding... I'm sure they're all Master's and Phd asperger focused socially dysfunctional geniuses ... However, I don't agree that the hemisphere is "coupling" to any forcing by the ENSO state.. .because I've grown tired of reading their ENSO publications, then ... fielding these kind of modeling complexions by the Euro ( left ) above, (...having them more less verify as we are seeing enhancing precipitation into the at least N. Ca up through Wa/Or ). I said in August ... if not an exact quote, ' La Nina may happenstance look like that from time to time, as the pattern migrates through the idealized mode, but it won't be because of the La Nina... ' - it was in deference to the idea that the HC is muting these ENSOs because it has expand beyond and completely engulfed the normal "triggering latitudes" where their modulation then forces patternization. In this case...I suspect with having wind flux anomalies in the mid latitudes that have been raging since...oh, 2002 ... there has to be a compensatory mass somewhere... Some of the wind channeling off toward polarward motion ...spliting N into the WCBs from cyclonic/trough gestation... But some of it by convention does split S and ends up underneath, and thus ...you have [ possibly ] enhancing easterly trades, purely as a function of more in must move more along those lower latitudes... causing SS stressing and plying the surface oceanic temperature distribution into mimicking La Nine; as the base-line state, but not really indicative of actually having one. I'm starting to wonder .. is that intrinsically misleading...So, we end up expecting to see the right annotation above, but because the total hemisphere is really ...doing something else, the left panel keeps existing Hypotheticals aside/here and now: Thing is ... I wasn't making that other stuff up re the GEFs ( at least - for how little they must be worth ) derived teleconnectors. They were/are biased toward a colder/stormier suggestion ... enough so that even if they don't ultimately verify a convincing look, when moving the mode of the AO down, the NAO down, and the PNA up ...that synergy typically gets interesting ( at least) . But this? Above? Even the operation GFS is doing this ... and altogether, the operational runs are kind of in some sort of epic tug-a-war against that. It's like some agency is designing this to deliberately create a futility in the art of predict lol The EPS ... does anyone have those numbers? Like ... I don't wanna read anyones interpretation... I want to see EPS NAO = ? EPS PNA = ? EPS AO = ? ...The only ones available to the easy-to-find Internet/Americas appears to be the MJO coverage offered at the Climate Diagnostic Center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 36 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I don't know why I keep bothering to update/push a colder/stormier profile over this side of Hemisphere ... ' shit keeps doing this .. How about this "La Nina" structure, huh? ... wtf This straight up looks to me like my hypothesis back in August - sorry to say. That the "La Nina" ?? ... it's not coupled to the atmosphere. I think NCEP is full of shit in their PDF too ...trying to negotiate an interpretation, is what's up with them, because there is no way in f'ing hell this below ... If the general hemispheric eddy was truly coupled to the La Nina ... we wouldn't have EL F'ING NINO JETS COMING INTO CALIFORNIA! ... assholes... Stop selling interpretations, put down the coffee and Solitaire, and do your jobs. Oh shit I'm kidding... I'm sure they're all Master's and Phd asperger focused socially dysfunctional geniuses ... However, I don't agree that the hemisphere is "coupling" to any forcing by the ENSO state.. .because I've grown tired of reading their ENSO publications, then ... fielding these kind of modeling complexions by the Euro ( left ) above, (...having them more less verify as we are seeing enhancing precipitation into the at least N. Ca up through Wa/Or ). I said in August ... if not an exact quote, ' La Nina may happenstance look like that from time to time, as the pattern migrates through the idealized mode, but it won't be because of the La Nina... ' - it was in deference to the idea that the HC is muting these ENSOs because it has expand beyond and completely engulfed the normal "triggering latitudes" where their modulation then forces patternization. In this case...I suspect with having wind flux anomalies in the mid latitudes that have been raging since...oh, 2002 ... there has to be a compensatory mass somewhere... Some of the wind channeling off toward polarward motion ...spliting N into the WCBs from cyclonic/trough gestation... But some of it by convention does split S and ends up underneath, and thus ...you have [ possibly ] enhancing easterly trades, purely as a function of more in must move more along those lower latitudes... causing SS stressing and plying the surface oceanic temperature distribution into mimicking La Nine; as the base-line state, but not really indicative of actually having one. I'm starting to wonder .. is that intrinsically misleading...So, we end up expecting to see the right annotation above, but because the total hemisphere is really ...doing something else, the left panel keeps existing Hypotheticals aside/here and now: Thing is ... I wasn't making that other stuff up re the GEFs ( at least - for how little they must be worth ) derived teleconnectors. They were/are biased toward a colder/stormier suggestion ... enough so that even if they don't ultimately verify a convincing look, when moving the mode of the AO down, the NAO down, and the PNA up ...that synergy typically gets interesting ( at least) . But this? Above? Even the operation GFS is doing this ... and altogether, the operational runs are kind of in some sort of epic tug-a-war against that. It's like some agency is designing this to deliberately create a futility in the art of predict lol The EPS ... does anyone have those numbers? Like ... I don't wanna read anyones interpretation... I want to see EPS NAO = ? EPS PNA = ? EPS AO = ? ...The only ones available to the easy-to-find Internet/Americas appears to be the MJO coverage offered at the Climate Diagnostic Center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 1 hour ago, FXWX said: ... ... Nice!!! sweet, thanks my 'gender neutral internet hyper PC convention ' No seriously ... are these one times as in now out of mercy, or is there a public access/url ?? Thanks man - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 WTF Tip??? Holy smokes...too much coffee this morning? Man you can ramble on... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: WTF Tip??? Holy smokes...too much coffee this morning? Man you can ramble on... Welcome to the board 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 2 hours ago, weathafella said: We joke about the pig but it moves in and out and in and....on guidance and has for days. Yesterday the end of the eps was particularly bad. Today we’re with the anti pig d6 on the 0Z run, high water pig d10-12 with some signs of a trend towards relaxing at the end....we wax we wane. It’s too close for comfort, regardless. Me thinks that will be the prevailing theme this season...model chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 I see Tip furiously writing his retort... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 Leaves are fallin all around... it’s time for Tip to ramble.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 31 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Leaves are fallin all around... it’s time for Tip to ramble.. I actually was thinking about that Zeppelin Tune too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 Snowy day up here in the mountains. About 3" new snow at 1,500ft. Heated sidewalk rage has me searching out the islands of snow among the pavers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 Damn...looks beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 We famous hills Though it is currently snowing across much of eastern NY in these bands, it is pretty dry in the low levels across Southern New England and these bands may not advance much further than a Worcester to Tolland, CT line. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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