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November 2020 Discussion


Bostonseminole
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4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s also two full weeks away(15 days actually), so things could change a bit by that time....there’s always a lil hope lol.  But if that plays out we’ll just enjoy the mild weather. 

The pig ain't leaving in two weeks, but I also don't think it stays in December. My educated guess. 

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20 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

Why you say that it stayed all winter last year. The difference is we are getting this ugly pattern six weeks earlier than last winter. 

Pig last winter didn't set it until late December. Kind of a weird year. Usually when you have good blocking early in November and December, it reloads during the winter....sometimes multiple times. Last year the early blocking just gave way to a horrendous pattern.

There was a brief time it looked like high latitude blocking would come back in late January....it actually almost looked like a 2015 EPO-redux, but then it collapsed spectacularly on guidance inside of 7 days.

The key on the pig is does it stick around? If we get to, say, 11/25, and it doesn't show signs of breaking down on the ensemble guidance in December, then I think I'd be very worried.

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Despite these rip-and-read peregrinations by the operational models ... clearly as though they are trying pull the short-and-curlies of those that want winter storms by vacillating and taunting ...  ( lol ) ... the American/GEFs teleconnectors still look interesting post the 20th.   

They sort of backed off en masse for a couple of cycles but the 00z came back in an impressive fashion.  

What's interesting is that the MJO coverage by the Euro and GFS and their respective ensemble means also backed off the previous advertisement for Phase 8-1-2 maturing wave strength... which is strange.  It's like every aspect of the atmosphere backed off ??   That's interesting to have a cross-guidance 'holistic' sort of oscillation like that - I mean regardless of modeling...they all did the same thing.  Now, ...that's probably intuitive to some degree - they all use the same geophysical equations so...assuming one or two are veracious and dependable...ducks tend to waddle in herd mentality.   Uh...they should move together -   ... But something maybe got into the initializations that caused the perturbation in continuity but/and perhaps it's just ironed out - 

In any event, the AO is very concertedly going negative ... by week two it's in free fall.  The NAO is also bending neutral and extrapolates that way ..though with those Iceland bombs the usual variety of E or W basing is uncertain... And the PNA is camel backing out there too - that's all indicative of blockier stormier hemisphere to close out the month.  

Yet...we have to "endure" D3 thru 6 balm swathing up over ORD to Boston ...  and in that time, the above signal may come and go ...but will largely be ignored as the cat's head in the paper bag phenomenon uses the D5, 70 F afternoon to glaze their perceptions of the reality - haha

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pig last winter didn't set it until late December. Kind of a weird year. Usually when you have good blocking early in November and December, it reloads during the winter....sometimes multiple times. Last year the early blocking just gave way to a horrendous pattern.

There was a brief time it looked like high latitude blocking would come back in late January....it actually almost looked like a 2015 EPO-redux, but then it collapsed spectacularly on guidance inside of 7 days.

The key on the pig is does it stick around? If we get to, say, 11/25, and it doesn't show signs of breaking down on the ensemble guidance in December, then I think I'd be very worried.

Problem was the blocking reestablished in April...I was hoping for March.

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The way a lot of you are talking.... Maybe we should just camel this forum because it seems like Winter is finished before it ever started, several of your estimates. Or... All of you who are super negative could just leave and not come back on until spring... Let the rest of us who are optimistic enjoy each week as they come. To be honest.. It's not very enticing to come here to only hear all this Winter is over talk. So... Let's get some comments on who's staying and who's going. How's that for a topic.

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14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Problem was the blocking reestablished in April...I was hoping for March.

Yeah....I feel like every April recently has blocking, lol....but the correlation during the winter months with robust blocking in November/early December is pretty good. For some reason it just never happened.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Despite these rip-and-read peregrinations by the operational models ... clearly as though they are trying pull the short-and-curlies of those that want winter storms by vacillating and taunting ...  ( lol ) ... the American/GEFs teleconnectors still look interesting post the 20th.   

They sort of backed off en masse for a couple of cycles but the 00z came back in an impressive fashion.  

What's interesting is that the MJO coverage by the Euro and GFS and their respective ensemble means also backed off the previous advertisement for Phase 8-1-2 maturing wave strength... which is strange.  It's like every aspect of the atmosphere backed off ??   That's interesting to have a cross-guidance 'holistic' sort of oscillation like that - I mean regardless of modeling...they all did the same thing.  Now, ...that's probably intuitive to some degree - they all use the same geophysical equations so...assuming one or two are veracious and dependable...ducks tend to waddle in herd mentality.   Uh...they should move together -   ... But something maybe got into the initializations that caused the perturbation in continuity but/and perhaps it's just ironed out - 

In any event, the AO is very concertedly going negative ... by week two it's in free fall.  The NAO is also bending neutral and extrapolates that way ..though with those Iceland bombs the usual variety of E or W basing is uncertain... And the PNA is camel backing out there too - that's all indicative of blockier stormier hemisphere to close out the month.  

Yet...we have to "endure" D3 thru 6 balm swathing up over ORD to Boston ...  and in that time, the above signal may come and go ...but will largely be ignored as the cat's head in the paper bag phenomenon uses the D5, 70 F afternoon to glaze their perceptions of the reality - haha

FYI:

image.png.8e26039689d5074f7f5cb99ec21879c3.png

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