CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 One giant Pig to end November and start December. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: One giant Pig to end November and start December. Explains why Will is gone 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Explains why Will is gone I'll be gone too. Boring AF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'll be gone too. Boring AF. zzzzzzzzzzzz for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: One giant Pig to end November and start December. No bueno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 It over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It over Good. We had a great stretch of Winter, lets move on to Spring. 3 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 We talking 2011-2012 style pig? Is the writing on the wall? Better to know now and not worry about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 Just now, NorEastermass128 said: We talking 2011-2012 style pig? Is the writing on the wall? Better to know now and not worry about it. My outlook predicts a lot of straw grasping as the pig rolls in and the weeks go by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: My outlook predicts a lot of straw grasping as the pig rolls in and the weeks go by. I guess no better season to endure a pig. We’ll try again next year once normality returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: My outlook predicts a lot of straw grasping as the pig rolls in and the weeks go by. While the pig is not as glamorous as some other animals, it's versatile in that it can be enjoyed in a multitude of ways. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 18 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Good. We had a great stretch of Winter, lets move on to Spring. I ended up with < 1” on the season. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: While the pig is not as glamorous as some other animals, it's versatile in that it can be enjoyed in a multitude of ways. Bacon up that sausage boy! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 An inch or so on grassy surfaces and cars a couple weeks ago. Oh well. October snow strikes and kills another SNE Winter again. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 Yeah no cold air to be found at all. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 What a furnace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What a furnace Time to put the bus back in the garage. But, man that Dakota's look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 18 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Time to put the bus back in the garage. But, man that Dakota's look. Based on the coming pattern the next month of so,, we should have several more stemwinders like last night into the Lakes that’ll probably rip more damaging events into New England than any snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 30 minutes ago, leo2000 said: Yeah no cold air to be found at all. Lookin good 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 It’s also two full weeks away(15 days actually), so things could change a bit by that time....there’s always a lil hope lol. But if that plays out we’ll just enjoy the mild weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: It’s also two full weeks away(15 days actually), so things could change a bit by that time....there’s always a lil hope lol. But if that plays out we’ll just enjoy the mild weather. The pig ain't leaving in two weeks, but I also don't think it stays in December. My educated guess. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The pig ain't leaving in two weeks, but I also don't think it stays in December. My educated guess. Why you say that it stayed all winter last year. The difference is we are getting this ugly pattern six weeks earlier than last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 20 minutes ago, leo2000 said: Why you say that it stayed all winter last year. The difference is we are getting this ugly pattern six weeks earlier than last winter. Pig last winter didn't set it until late December. Kind of a weird year. Usually when you have good blocking early in November and December, it reloads during the winter....sometimes multiple times. Last year the early blocking just gave way to a horrendous pattern. There was a brief time it looked like high latitude blocking would come back in late January....it actually almost looked like a 2015 EPO-redux, but then it collapsed spectacularly on guidance inside of 7 days. The key on the pig is does it stick around? If we get to, say, 11/25, and it doesn't show signs of breaking down on the ensemble guidance in December, then I think I'd be very worried. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 Despite these rip-and-read peregrinations by the operational models ... clearly as though they are trying pull the short-and-curlies of those that want winter storms by vacillating and taunting ... ( lol ) ... the American/GEFs teleconnectors still look interesting post the 20th. They sort of backed off en masse for a couple of cycles but the 00z came back in an impressive fashion. What's interesting is that the MJO coverage by the Euro and GFS and their respective ensemble means also backed off the previous advertisement for Phase 8-1-2 maturing wave strength... which is strange. It's like every aspect of the atmosphere backed off ?? That's interesting to have a cross-guidance 'holistic' sort of oscillation like that - I mean regardless of modeling...they all did the same thing. Now, ...that's probably intuitive to some degree - they all use the same geophysical equations so...assuming one or two are veracious and dependable...ducks tend to waddle in herd mentality. Uh...they should move together - ... But something maybe got into the initializations that caused the perturbation in continuity but/and perhaps it's just ironed out - In any event, the AO is very concertedly going negative ... by week two it's in free fall. The NAO is also bending neutral and extrapolates that way ..though with those Iceland bombs the usual variety of E or W basing is uncertain... And the PNA is camel backing out there too - that's all indicative of blockier stormier hemisphere to close out the month. Yet...we have to "endure" D3 thru 6 balm swathing up over ORD to Boston ... and in that time, the above signal may come and go ...but will largely be ignored as the cat's head in the paper bag phenomenon uses the D5, 70 F afternoon to glaze their perceptions of the reality - haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Pig last winter didn't set it until late December. Kind of a weird year. Usually when you have good blocking early in November and December, it reloads during the winter....sometimes multiple times. Last year the early blocking just gave way to a horrendous pattern. There was a brief time it looked like high latitude blocking would come back in late January....it actually almost looked like a 2015 EPO-redux, but then it collapsed spectacularly on guidance inside of 7 days. The key on the pig is does it stick around? If we get to, say, 11/25, and it doesn't show signs of breaking down on the ensemble guidance in December, then I think I'd be very worried. Problem was the blocking reestablished in April...I was hoping for March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 The way a lot of you are talking.... Maybe we should just camel this forum because it seems like Winter is finished before it ever started, several of your estimates. Or... All of you who are super negative could just leave and not come back on until spring... Let the rest of us who are optimistic enjoy each week as they come. To be honest.. It's not very enticing to come here to only hear all this Winter is over talk. So... Let's get some comments on who's staying and who's going. How's that for a topic. 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Problem was the blocking reestablished in April...I was hoping for March. Yeah....I feel like every April recently has blocking, lol....but the correlation during the winter months with robust blocking in November/early December is pretty good. For some reason it just never happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 I recall a couple weeks ago , runawayiceberg was bringing up his Pig concerns and that didn’t receive a warm welcome Didn’t realize we were actually seeing a big pig for next couple weeks . Close the shades all the way up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Despite these rip-and-read peregrinations by the operational models ... clearly as though they are trying pull the short-and-curlies of those that want winter storms by vacillating and taunting ... ( lol ) ... the American/GEFs teleconnectors still look interesting post the 20th. They sort of backed off en masse for a couple of cycles but the 00z came back in an impressive fashion. What's interesting is that the MJO coverage by the Euro and GFS and their respective ensemble means also backed off the previous advertisement for Phase 8-1-2 maturing wave strength... which is strange. It's like every aspect of the atmosphere backed off ?? That's interesting to have a cross-guidance 'holistic' sort of oscillation like that - I mean regardless of modeling...they all did the same thing. Now, ...that's probably intuitive to some degree - they all use the same geophysical equations so...assuming one or two are veracious and dependable...ducks tend to waddle in herd mentality. Uh...they should move together - ... But something maybe got into the initializations that caused the perturbation in continuity but/and perhaps it's just ironed out - In any event, the AO is very concertedly going negative ... by week two it's in free fall. The NAO is also bending neutral and extrapolates that way ..though with those Iceland bombs the usual variety of E or W basing is uncertain... And the PNA is camel backing out there too - that's all indicative of blockier stormier hemisphere to close out the month. Yet...we have to "endure" D3 thru 6 balm swathing up over ORD to Boston ... and in that time, the above signal may come and go ...but will largely be ignored as the cat's head in the paper bag phenomenon uses the D5, 70 F afternoon to glaze their perceptions of the reality - haha FYI: 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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