November 2020 Discussion

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

39 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm already tracking it

Zoom call

Sounds great, Saturday November 21st

[Mr. Kevin]

Hi guys. I have a question. Does the potential trough in day 10 on euro and gfs have anything to do with what HM mentioned about 120E standing wave getting ignited? Wasn't sure if that was separate or not. 

[mreaves]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

You see anything frozen today?  We had like an hour of wet snow up at 1,500ft at like 34F around 1-2pm.

I was at deer camp at about the same elevation and we had the same thing. Didn’t last long but their were a few bouts. 

[SnoSki14]

Well that was an interesting GFS run.

[Snowcrazed71]

17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Well that was an interesting GFS run.

And what was it showing?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

6 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

And what was it showing?

2 feet plus CT/MA border Wednesday before Turkey day. Sounds realistic 

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

And what was it showing?

 

[ineedsnow]

Total for that GFS run even I know this won't  happen lol 

[40/70 Benchmark]

59 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

 

I'd swallow a chainsaw. 

[The 4 Seasons]

That's a November wet fever dream on acid...and crack.

48" by the end of November? 

[Jim Carrey Voice] I like it, I LIKE IT ALHOOTTTT

[TheSnowman]

2-4 FEET!?  Ray your 35”-50” for me on the season would be Screwed! Haha  

[Damage In Tolland]

That would take every tree in the state down, collapse every deck and barn, and cave car roofs in . 

[The 4 Seasons]

48 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That would take every tree in the state down, collapse every deck and barn, and cave car roofs in . 

Why? theres no more leaves on the trees now. It shouldn't be any different from a mid-jan event. 

It's not like we have gotten 3 feet of snow before and it was total destruction. I think most of the trees survived Feb 13. 

[WinterWolf]

He’s thinking the snow will be wet I’d imagine...being November and all??? 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said:

That's a November wet fever dream on acid...and crack.

48" by the end of November? 

[Jim Carrey Voice] I like it, I LIKE IT ALHOOTTTT

It is 2020 after all....lol.

[kdxken]

5 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

2 feet plus CT/MA border Wednesday before Turkey day. Sounds realistic 

Lock it in.

[Damage In Tolland]

43 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Why? theres no more leaves on the trees now. It shouldn't be any different from a mid-jan event. 

It's not like we have gotten 3 feet of snow before and it was total destruction. I think most of the trees survived Feb 13. 

See Dec 92 .. 1-3’ of paste collapsed everything 

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

See Dec 92 .. 1-3’ of paste collapsed everything 

Well. It's fun to see fantasy snow storms back in the models

 At least it's showing this and not glc's like last year. Fingers crossed that we get something from this storm

[HoarfrostHubb]

21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

See Dec 92 .. 1-3’ of paste collapsed everything 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

 

I know you remember that storm. That was 36” up there. My wife’s house where she still lived at the time in town had 18-19”. No power for over a week. That was a true paster 

[CoastalWx]

Yeah, fun, but no. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

31 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I know you remember that storm. That was 36” up there. My wife’s house where she still lived at the time in town had 18-19”. No power for over a week. That was a true paster 

I didn’t live I the Hubb then. I was at UMass Lowell. It was a pretty good storm there.  Lots and lots of imbibing 

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah, fun, but no. 

Tip says there’s a chance...

[Damage In Tolland]

Looks like some wind damage tomorrow night

[CoastalWx]

23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Tip says there’s a chance...

Nothing lasts forever, even cold November rain. 

[CoastalWx]

29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks like some wind damage tomorrow night

Yawn.

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yawn.

Wake up son .

 

[WinterWolf]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yawn.

Yup.

[MJO812]

Nice cold shot at 240 hours on the Euro. Might be some fun at the end of the month. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Ah could also just be pattern change typology -

These large mass-field modalities seldom are handled with eclat by the guidance ...and particularly that would seem true - intuitively - in an era of unrelenting, multi-seasonal hemispheric permanent wind flux anomalies.

With a concerted rise in the PNA ..ranging ~ -.75 to +.5 ... roughly a 1 SD, through the end of week two, with an equally concerted by vastly larger amplitude shift in the AO ... while the MJO is improving through Phase 8-1-2 ... To mention, the subtle trends of the operational runs  ... These observations do not connote we are heading into a paradigm that really very remotely resembles where we've been over the first couple of weeks of this month.  But...back to point:  getting there from there, seems to always require sending us through all kinds phantom wave- fractals giving rise to systemic modeling migraines during the here and nows. 

The Euro's notion .. hm, I was afraid of something like that when that 12z solution yesterday ejected a mid/S stream system through a split flow under that SPV fragment dangling N of Lake Superior as it had at the time.  So ... on this cycle, yup - it goes ahead and tries to latch onto said fragment and drive it into said mid/S stream...so prodigiously as a matter of fact the height compression completely distroys the southern stream S/W identity in lieu of dry historic short term cold wave ( suggested ) along the usual continental conveyor ( NP-Lakes ...NE ..yadda yadda ) boooorrrrinnnnng...

But, can't say that's not likely any more than it is ... "IF" the pattern does head that way - which I think it is ... Anyway, couple years ago we were 9 F at 1pm on Thanks Giggedy from something similar to that ... We don't have to cleave back far in the annuls at all to shut up the doubters over whether a look like that can happen - oh...they'll still claim Trump did great things though...  F brain-washed zombie cow-tied nimrods - it's like arguing with the Black Night in Monty/Python with these vacated brain-boxes - yeah...there's a conspiracy to make Trump lose the election alright - it's called  ... wait for it -

THE F'N ELECTION ...

yes...that's right ...all people got together and "conspired" through the vast entangled pathos and ethotic labyrinth of societal interconnectivity ...and arrived upon the clear and decisive, motivating conclusion that it is time for the biggest mistake in history to move over, because that same systemic process/consensus ... hates and despises you -  

Sorry for the tongue in cheek satirization of current events... anyway,  ...I still think there's an important system possible in that time frame... circa D9 through 15 ... It's unclear if there's a singular entity to focus on ...or just an era to ponder/perhaps buckshot. Typically .. even in cases with modest PNA rises from late autumn into winter ... a concerted modality among the various camps and ensemble means therein - which I believe we are seeing? - statistically favors an indirect if not direct "Archembaultian" adjustment event ... It helps for winter enthusiasts that said event, if so ... , would transpire going from a warm regime into a cool one.