November 2020 Discussion

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We tried to tell them. Indoors , close quarters, 

I don't think he is serious. 

[CoastalWx]

Weeklies get progressively better in December. I know it's pretty much voodoo after week 3-4....but just stating how they look. Dateline ridge builds with a bit of a west based -NAO look. 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Weeklies get progressively better in December. I know it's pretty much voodoo after week 3-4....but just stating how they look. Dateline ridge builds with a bit of a west based -NAO look. 

 

 

I buy it, though I would not be surprised to see it rushed a bit and the NAO at least begin more east-based.

[Typhoon Tip]

Clarifying ... what I mean is that I feel there is a reasonable chance for substantive winter-line storminess between now and 'Giving - 

I'm in a seminar at work - ugh...droning... 

The entire GEFs mass-field/teleconnector complexion has returned to that original idea from 10 or two weeks ago ...whereby the latter half of November would receded after the warm hiatus?    If anyone recalls - dig it up -...it seems presently apropos again.  

Scott Will ...whomever may have their own reliance packaging and so forth, but from what I am looking at ... it could clip to a colder profile tendency for events just as fast as it did prior to the Halloween snow with 70 and two days later we're under an advisory and verifying ... this time around, there is even more cold air to work with too -    the cute scales are ruining major Met reputations unfortunately - 

[ORH_wxman]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Clarifying ... what I mean is that I feel there is a reasonable chance for substantive winter-line storminess between now and 'Giving - 

I'm in a seminar at work - ugh...droning... 

The entire GEFs mass-field/teleconnector complexion has returned to that original idea from 10 or two weeks ago ...whereby the latter half of November would receded after the warm hiatus?    If anyone recalls - dig it up -...it seems presently apropos again.  

Scott Will ...whomever may have their own reliance packaging and so forth, but from what I am looking at ... it could clip to a colder profile tendency for events just as fast as it did prior to the Halloween snow with 70 and two days later we're under an advisory and verifying ... this time around, there is even more cold air to work with too -    the cute scales are ruining major Met reputations unfortunately - 

This pattern definitely looks a bit like a roller coaster....Sunday could be pretty mild, esp if we get some sunshine. 60+ not out of the question? Then we go pretty damned cold for several days following with a good possibility of flurries or snow showers around on Tuesday and Tuesday night/Wed morning could be our coldest night yet.

The pattern beyond that though looks interesting...it's showing up as pretty blocky but also a tendency for western troughing, so those will be opposing forces for our corner of the CONUS.

 

51 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Weeklies get progressively better in December. I know it's pretty much voodoo after week 3-4....but just stating how they look. Dateline ridge builds with a bit of a west based -NAO look. 

 

 

Yeah at least they looked good....they aren't worth much that far out, but that was a flip from earlier runs. I'm starting to be intrigued by the blockier look on a lot of runs for the D8-12 range. That is a good sign because it wasn't that long ago that those days looked kind of ugly on guidance. So I'm hoping that it means there is a tendency to not allow an AK vortex to set up shop for any amount of time. Also, historically, it is good to have blocking in November. I know it doesn't work all the time (see last 2 years), but you'd rather have it than a death vortex for sure.

 

[CoastalWx]

54 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Clarifying ... what I mean is that I feel there is a reasonable chance for substantive winter-line storminess between now and 'Giving - 

I'm in a seminar at work - ugh...droning... 

The entire GEFs mass-field/teleconnector complexion has returned to that original idea from 10 or two weeks ago ...whereby the latter half of November would receded after the warm hiatus?    If anyone recalls - dig it up -...it seems presently apropos again.  

Scott Will ...whomever may have their own reliance packaging and so forth, but from what I am looking at ... it could clip to a colder profile tendency for events just as fast as it did prior to the Halloween snow with 70 and two days later we're under an advisory and verifying ... this time around, there is even more cold air to work with too -    the cute scales are ruining major Met reputations unfortunately - 

The blocking is sort of intriguing like you and Will stated. Maybe that is something favoring the interior? Pacific is sort of shut off for uber cold, so you are relying on Canadian manufacturing of cold. Hopefully that doesn't have a tariff on it.   

[HIPPYVALLEY]

What a craptastic day.  42° and steady light rain. Leaf cleanup might be in jeopardy for the weekend.

[Spanks45]

GFS from Day 5 through the end of the run looks quite blocky in the NAO region....would be nice and hopefully we can score something region wide before it breaks down. GFS shows something right before Turkey Day.

If the blocking even develops to begin with....

[powderfreak]

Oddly seems to be wet snow here at 1500ft at the moment.  Wasn’t expecting flakes.

[Typhoon Tip]

19 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Oddly seems to be wet snow here at 1500ft at the moment.  Wasn’t expecting flakes.

You're under a 540 dm thickness column in a saturated/near saturated with weak negative stability - 

deal with it    

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

The blocking is sort of intriguing like you and Will stated. Maybe that is something favoring the interior? Pacific is sort of shut off for uber cold, so you are relying on Canadian manufacturing of cold. Hopefully that doesn't have a tariff on it.   

Furthering Will's point along with that 'roller-coastering' aspect ...we're probably at a premium with deterministic skill right now - which is to say... highly valued do to not having much -lol..

The 00z Euro seemed to be an entertaining extrapolation on that whole-scale flip it did earlier in the day (12z...) but this run seems to try and ease off that complexion and go back more zonal this time next week...which brings some more seasonal balm into the region.  But we're likely to get these kind of alternations over cycle clusters until D4 < in this sort of transitory deal -

you know this shit jus sayn' ... But, notice the hUgeMANgous temperature variations either side of the D7 layout from say S/SE Manitoba to Day/OH  ... I mean, that period of time is sort of ripe for an ice storm and the 00z Euro was really setting one up ( frankly...);  who'd bother to comment on an ice storm on a D10 chart tho, right - 

Anyway, big continental temperature variances so your 'home grown' idea there ... Also, adding to that, these blocking nodes popping off may be weak, but we are seeing cold loading into at least 55N in Canada ... -20 C has been growing in the 850 layout/synoptic depictions across recent runs at least down to that latitude...  

It's likely that anyone doing a late Golf outing in just a light pull-over along 45 N doesn't realize how close to peril their balmy day really is    ... EDIT: actually right after D7 that's getting rather blue anyway -

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Furthering Will's point along with that 'roller-coastering' aspect ...we're probably at a premium with deterministic skill right now - which is to say... highly valued do to not having much -lol..

The 00z Euro seemed to be an entertaining extrapolation on that whole-scale flip it did earlier in the day (12z...) but this run seems to try and ease off that complexion and go back more zonal this time next week...which brings some more seasonal balm into the region.  But we're likely to get these kind of alternations over cycle clusters until D4 < in this sort of transitory deal -

you know this shit jus sayn' ... But, notice the hUgeMANgous temperature variations either side of the D7 layout from say S/SE Manitoba to Day/OH  ... I mean, that period of time is sort of ripe for an ice storm and the 00z Euro was really setting one up ( frankly...);  who'd bother to comment on an ice storm on a D10 chart tho, right - 

Anyway, big continental temperature variances so your 'home grown' idea there ... Also, adding to that, these blocking nodes popping off may be weak, but we are seeing cold loading into at least 55N in Canada ... -20 C has been growing in the 850 layout/synoptic depictions across recent runs at least down to that latitude...  

It's likely that anyone doing a late Golf outing in just a light pull-over along 45 N doesn't realize how close to peril their balmy day really is    

Even this run, after going a little bit zonal for a couple days, it buckles the flow again at D9.....this is just a useless OP run, but you can "see the potential" if things were to break the right way in the details

 

[CoastalWx]

Yeah gearing up for an early season SWFE verbatim.

[Damage In Tolland]

Congrats Freak 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Even this run, after going a little bit zonal for a couple days, it buckles the flow again at D9.....this is just a useless OP run, but you can "see the potential" if things were to break the right way in the details

 

word!  I had just edited that post to that inclusion -

[Typhoon Tip]

That D10 flat out extrapolates into a winter storm for the Upper OV --> NE arc... . no question. 

In fact, if taken verbatim that 500mb evolution lead-up and in situ layout on D10 itself ... that would forbade any cyclonic movement west of 75 longitude as very difficult to physically pull off ... Nope.... any cyclone primary gets that far N ( say BUF) and you're Miller B'ing your way out of that mess.. 

That's just what that set up means - sorry. 

Whether that happens.... ?  Duh - just saying "verbatim" 

But, the American cluster ( as I advertised earlier) is crashing pretty hard in that time range so ... I'm a fan of cross guidance hand-shakes - ...just have to see if this is worth of an applause

[Typhoon Tip]

God I hate D10's !!!  ugh - 

that's a be-a-u-tiful hemisphere on that day ....  which for pure probability/statistical inference means that what is likely to occur is not that same look when said look becomes D 1   -  ... ( so ur tellin' me there's a chance ..) 

I hope we don't do this all winter with these perfect set ups out there -

[Hazey]

Times are a changin’ me thinks. Transient maybe but better look ahead. I like what I am seeing.


#NovaScotiaStrong

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah gearing up for an early season SWFE verbatim.

I always though an SWFE was a relativley weaker wave moving along a sharp thermal gradient.  Wouldn't this be more of a robust Miller B? (Of course, academic exercise only, it is a 10 day op map!):

[PhineasC]

33 with some mixed precip. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

21 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I always though an SWFE was a relativley weaker wave moving along a sharp thermal gradient.  Wouldn't this be more of a robust Miller B? (Of course, academic exercise only, it is a 10 day op map!):

I always thought of SWFE being most related to origin point of the initial wave.

whatever the case, they are one of my preferred events being in NW MA. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah gearing up for an early season SWFE verbatim.

This is the exact type of set up I feel will be most prevalent throughout December....crappy Pacific, decent Atlantic....pedestrian cold.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That D10 flat out extrapolates into a winter storm for the Upper OV --> NE arc... . no question. 

In fact, if taken verbatim that 500mb evolution lead-up and in situ layout on D10 itself ... that would forbade any cyclonic movement west of 75 longitude as very difficult to physically pull off ... Nope.... any cyclone primary gets that far N ( say BUF) and you're Miller B'ing your way out of that mess.. 

That's just what that set up means - sorry. 

Whether that happens.... ?  Duh - just saying "verbatim" 

But, the American cluster ( as I advertised earlier) is crashing pretty hard in that time range so ... I'm a fan of cross guidance hand-shakes - ...just have to see if this is worth of an applause

Yes...SWFE and Miller B city...dependent upon degree of polar resistance and trough placement.

[40/70 Benchmark]

51 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I always though an SWFE was a relativley weaker wave moving along a sharp thermal gradient.  Wouldn't this be more of a robust Miller B? (Of course, academic exercise only, it is a 10 day op map!):

SWFE is essentially a Miller B that transfers too late.

[PhineasC]

31 but no precip around. 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

31 but no precip around. 

You see anything frozen today?  We had like an hour of wet snow up at 1,500ft at like 34F around 1-2pm.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Ray, judging by the models Day 10 outlook right now, that Pacific pattern is just ideal for coastal snow accumulation.  Again, dependent upon storm track and intensity cold air funneling out of Maine could bring a coastal snow threat.  That 1006mb surface low wave will not plow northward into a 1042 mb high in its way.  Multi guidance agreement that the ridging out west will indeed be robust as teleconnections swings to neutral slightly negative in the NAO domain and slightly positive PNA domain.  Again Day 10 guidance is always ripe for our area.  Waiting a legit eight days is torture.  However, there is a day 4-6 event window upon us for some mood flakes.

[PhineasC]

Light snow, 32 degrees. 

[Damage In Tolland]

50 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Ray, judging by the models Day 10 outlook right now, that Pacific pattern is just ideal for coastal snow accumulation.  Again, dependent upon storm track and intensity cold air funneling out of Maine could bring a coastal snow threat.  That 1006mb surface low wave will not plow northward into a 1042 mb high in its way.  Multi guidance agreement that the ridging out west will indeed be robust as teleconnections swings to neutral slightly negative in the NAO domain and slightly positive PNA domain.  Again Day 10 guidance is always ripe for our area.  Waiting a legit eight days is torture.  However, there is a day 4-6 event window upon us for some mood flakes.

Beer 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Ray, judging by the models Day 10 outlook right now, that Pacific pattern is just ideal for coastal snow accumulation.  Again, dependent upon storm track and intensity cold air funneling out of Maine could bring a coastal snow threat.  That 1006mb surface low wave will not plow northward into a 1042 mb high in its way.  Multi guidance agreement that the ridging out west will indeed be robust as teleconnections swings to neutral slightly negative in the NAO domain and slightly positive PNA domain.  Again Day 10 guidance is always ripe for our area.  Waiting a legit eight days is torture.  However, there is a day 4-6 event window upon us for some mood flakes.

I'm already tracking it

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