Damage In Tolland Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, he is going 2010-2011...which is I parenthetically added "most of us" lol LC and DT are going pretty big, too, but backloaded.....although DT is waivering a bit due to lack of cold up north. Dick Tolleris goes big every year. Look at last year lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 I think we have a better chance than slight for snow next week - how much so ..? But I suspect it's not as low as all that. it's just that said chance is not painted by any models, either - ha! Not helping my case...no. It's what imho I think is in the "likeliness" envelope of that time frame... Seeing a bulge, ...albeit subtle ( I get it ), in the PNA guidance. The GEFs are very concerted tho, and this aligns with the antecedent ...albeit low end materialization of a phased 8-1-2 MJO migration. Here's a mind-bender ... if the HC expansion shit wasn't in play ( at all times in the fluid construct of the global scale), we'd see a strong wave mechanical presence emerging in the observation net - but this is like a strong wave being ( I "think" ) masked/muted/hidden/concealed ...whatever adjective best suits, but the smothering effect of the expansion stuff is suppressing a better detection. I think/suspect that what is being modulated out of both the Euro and GEFs clusters ( reasonably agreeing) shows enough presentation there to suggest a forcing... A flat-like +PNA with 50/50 chance at a pulsed -EPO loading are within the framework of results. The flow being fast over all helps that overall thinking; the more momentum ... it is "easier" for the models to map that out in time ...so it's not like the same scenario where we have subtle teleconnector modalities in a nebular flow that has more entropy guiding uncertainty... It's more like looking at the girders in the scaffolding as iron-clad because the bigger momentum has more weight - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 55 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Low chance, but some hints of maybe a little -SN in the air mid week next week? ya next week looks frigid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: I could be wrong, but I believe Ginx has a big big one. I'm just standing in for Zeus. I figure it is gonna be a great winter. front loaded with warmth to keep us outside and not going crazy, and backloaded with heavy snow as we follow the plows to the CVS to get our vaccines and emerge into the world again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: I think we have a better chance than slight for snow next week - how much so ..? But I suspect it's not as low as all that. it's just that said chance is not painted by any models, either - ha! Not helping my case...no. It's what imho I think is in the "likeliness" envelope of that time frame... Seeing a bulge, ...albeit subtle ( I get it ), in the PNA guidance. The GEFs are very concerted tho, and this aligns with the antecedent ...albeit low end materialization of a phased 8-1-2 MJO migration. Here's a mind-bender ... if the HC expansion shit wasn't in play ( at all times in the fluid construct of the global scale), we'd see a strong wave mechanical presence emerging in the observation net - but this is like a strong wave being ( I "think" ) masked/muted/hidden/concealed ...whatever adjective best suits, but the smothering effect of the expansion stuff is suppressing a better detection. I think/suspect that what is being modulated out of both the Euro and GEFs clusters ( reasonably agreeing) shows enough presentation there to suggest a forcing... A flat-like +PNA with 50/50 chance at a pulsed -EPO loading are within the framework of results. The flow being fast over all helps that overall thinking; the more momentum ... it is "easier" for the models to map that out in time ...so it's not like the same scenario where we have subtle teleconnector modalities in a nebular flow that has more entropy guiding uncertainty... It's more like looking at the girders in the scaffolding as iron-clad because the bigger momentum has more weight - you and Kevin have a lot in common... you have been occassionally honking about parts of November and I refuse to give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, he is going 2010-2011...which is I parenthetically added "most of us" lol LC and DT are going pretty big, too, but backloaded.....although DT is waivering a bit due to lack of cold up north. Speaking of lack of cold up north, I think this map is interesting. Some fairly well placed features...but deep cold almost nowhere to be found: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 31 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Speaking of lack of cold up north, I think this map is interesting. Some fairly well placed features...but deep cold almost nowhere to be found: 10 day OP map.....caveats apply...but that isn't a bad look at all in winter. PV on the Asian side of the hemisphere but that is plenty serviceable. For November winter wx events, you probably want more PV involvement since you are fighting climo a little harder this time of the year for snow. But having that kind of blocking up in AK and the Yukon is good and would work in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 These sunsets have been crazy. Its also crazy that if we wanted to watch the sunset in July we’d leave our house 4 hours later than today. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 5 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Did Antifa crowd your cruiser and steal your phone? Next week =) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 12, 2020 Share Posted November 12, 2020 Just now, MJO812 said: Next week =) Not sure if you’re drunk or writing too many mask tickets but nothing is offering any snow next week 1 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 Down to 30. November has returned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 28 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Down to 30. November has returned. 32° here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 29F. Crisp outside with the dog. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 The models have been hinting at -nao for a while now, but the signal looks a little bit more pronounced in the most recent runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 Wet. About 0.20" over last couple days and more today. Sitting at +8.5F MTD on temp. Still rocking the severe drought by some measures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 10 hours ago, PhineasC said: Down to 30. November September has returned. fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 47 with sheet rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 Leaves at the stake: 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 23F here... we hat and gloves again. SLK with 15F. Freezing fog with rime ice on trees too, winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 Just now, powderfreak said: 23F here... we hat and gloves again. SLK with 15F. Seriously? It's almost 50F here. Oak leaves have infested everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 23 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Seriously? It's almost 50F here. Oak leaves have infested everything. Same here. Its nuts. I cant wait until.it dries tomorrow so I can use my back pack blower on the oak leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 24 for the low, 31 now. Frost around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 51 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Leaves at the stake: 3-5" Lollies to 8”? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 I think many could see flakes on Tuesday....as the trough axis moves underneath us. Not a big deal but some snow showers around. Prob some minor accumulations in the usual mountain spots (Berks up to Greens and Whites) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I think many could see flakes on Tuesday....as the trough axis moves underneath us. Not a big deal but some snow showers around. Prob some minor accumulations in the usual mountain spots (Berks up to Greens and Whites) We're having winter by thanks giving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 38/33 OVC after a min of 28. No precip yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: We're having winter by thanks giving Winter 2020/21 is October 31st to November 30th...Spring begins December 1st, wouldn't surprise me with the way 2020 has treated us, Lol. 44°/44°, 0.89" of rain over the past 2 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 4.5 inches here in the last 31 days with 16 days of measurable precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 46 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: We're having winter by thanks giving We tried to tell them. Indoors , close quarters, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted November 13, 2020 Share Posted November 13, 2020 Yeah I’m liking middle next week for some snow in the air and maybe on the ground if things break right. Time after that looks tasty as well. Definitely more November like weather.#NovaScotiaStrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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