Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Early next week? IPAs FTL this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Not to detract from this snow threat but that’s basically 10/11 but 1-2months earlier...so come mid/late Dec it vanishes. FYI, the NAO turned strongly negative in the last 10 days of Nov 2010 and then broke during the 1/12/11 storm. We sustained another 3 weeks of winter after that with a largely favorable Pacific. The NAO did form another weakish block for about a week leading into the 1/26-27/11 event and then broke positive for good IIRC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 I agree with John Homenuk ... I can see the beginnings, like the foundation is being laid for a -EPO. Gosh, don't have the prognostic benefit of the CDC prior ESRL coverage - which was discontinued mid summer when the new GEFs systemic member density screwed up the calculations. I was emailed by them that their was no additional funding reserved for that arm of the coverage once the "improvement" of the forecast system was rolled in - I'm like, ... that's torpedoing the intent of improving tho - dipshits... Nice governmental solution - ... I'd rather the dimmer case loading, while maintaining the teleconnector coverage because whether people realize it or not, that is the most powerful foresight tool in the tool box - it's just not ubiquitously understood why to the lay folk, and even edubacated Mets seem dim on this mass-conservation fact/factoring and how and why they are divine if used the right way. But I digress... Anyway, it's just an early ...early look, but I would think post the the 10th of Novie we should see some multi-guidance source ensemble agreement for some sort of arced anomaly folding over western Canada - We may also go through mass-compensating warm oscillation to the hypsometric layout over eastern, mid-latitudes of N/A in the first week to 10 days of the month, ..prior to that kicking in... But I caution, that does not mean necessarily that we we'll get our faux summer out of that - the fast nature of the flow tends to exaggerate confluence intervals...such that we disproportionately load +PP through eastern Ontario and end up with E retreating surface highs ... it's why late May last year after the flip torched NW NNE and spared the MA to SNE... because of this same sort of offset phenomenon - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Snow squalls flying on Monday? Might look more like late December than early November , at least for a day....Lets warm it until Turkey Day afterwards 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Yeah ... uh, "Spanks45" ? ...interesting name ..anyway, with all the action in the foreground, that looks like the season's first big LE event ... It's short lived... no longer that 24 due to a redic fast pattern turning over real fast, but down wind of there, the western slopes of the Green and even White mountains may get upslope sintered in this GFS/Euro blend out there D5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 The Euro's over done in the D6.5 to 10 range ...but the gist of it is probably okay in principle. See that era as a -EPO loading..and tends to drop cold west first, with anomalously short R-wave undulation NE Pac into the settling kettle arc in the W/SW...Intermountain region. Spational not bad but the Euro tends too much curvature in that range so thinking along those lines but less dramatic is advisable. This is a good look for center - east mid latitude conus per the extrapolation .. eventually, as this look typically kicks off a -EPO mode passage, and then ...as the cold spreads the R-wave lengthens and then we time a mid Novie hostile baroclinic axis with wave potential out there - Nevertheless ...there will like be some fairly mild days in Nov 4 to 9 range ... But as I mentioned in the other thread, that's not guaranteed if surface high pressure tends to move E of Ontario and not settling SE of CC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah ... uh, "Spanks45" ? ...interesting name ..anyway, with all the action in the foreground, that looks like the season's first big LE event ... It's short lived... no longer that 24 due to a redic fast pattern turning over real fast, but down wind of there, the western slopes of the Green and even White mountains may get upslope sintered in this GFS/Euro blend out there D5 The name....been meaning to change that forever, the unfortunate nickname through school, (Shank is the actual last name). That trough has been getting more impressive with time. Hopefully this isn't another year of brutal cold and dry airmasses that last for 2-3 days, followed up by warmth and inches of rain....GEFS have had a trough in the west/ridge in the east pattern, but some blocking over top even into Alaska, better than the pig at least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 57 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: The name....been meaning to change that forever, the unfortunate nickname through school, (Shank is the actual last name). That trough has been getting more impressive with time. Hopefully this isn't another year of brutal cold and dry airmasses that last for 2-3 days, followed up by warmth and inches of rain....GEFS have had a trough in the west/ridge in the east pattern, but some blocking over top even into Alaska, better than the pig at least... With a name like that, I hope you aren't a golfer. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Should be some wild squalls around Monday/ Tuesday into SNE off the lakes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 8 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: FYI, the NAO turned strongly negative in the last 10 days of Nov 2010 and then broke during the 1/12/11 storm. We sustained another 3 weeks of winter after that with a largely favorable Pacific. The NAO did form another weakish block for about a week leading into the 1/26-27/11 event and then broke positive for good IIRC. Isn’t that a rare length though? It typically doesn’t hold for that long and lately it comes and goes in a transient fashion. Basically, I’m not going to bet on a long sustained blocking episode from Mid Nov thru Feb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Isn’t that a rare length though? It typically doesn’t hold for that long and lately it comes and goes in a transient fashion. Basically, I’m not going to bet on a long sustained blocking episode from Mid Nov thru Feb. Yeah they are somewhat rare...but aren’t that crazy unheard of. We do tend to see them in some of our great winters (Dec 1995 to early Jan 1996 comes to mind as well) We don’t need them that crazy though to have great periods. It would be nice to have some transient blocking that went neutral or only modestly positive in between blocking episodes instead of a straight black hole up there like we’ve often seen in recent winters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah they are somewhat rare...but aren’t that crazy unheard of. We do tend to see them in some of our great winters (Dec 1995 to early Jan 1996 comes to mind as well) We don’t need them that crazy though to have great periods. It would be nice to have some transient blocking that went neutral or only modestly positive in between blocking episodes instead of a straight black hole up there like we’ve often seen in recent winters. Hard to reverse black holes mid season too. Last year it took until early spring. I’m good with it being moderate and just swinging to both sides within slight deviations. Normal will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 No pig in sight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 515 Thickness for Boston 11/3 at 12z. That's gotta be a good 3 S.D below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 8 hours ago, weathafella said: No pig in sight. Just torch west to east fast flow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 29, 2020 Author Share Posted October 29, 2020 Looks like first week will be solid BN, then moderates 2nd/3rd week? maybe we finish November with a bang? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 6 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just torch west to east fast flow Not really. But definitely warm late next week and weekend for a spell. Looks like it’s certainly not a generally west to East Pacific torch. Ensemble runs have been hopefull for the latter half of November. And the first 5 days should be cold on average before it warms up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 32 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: Looks like first week will be solid BN, then moderates 2nd/3rd week? maybe we finish November with a bang? The deep field vision's a white Thanks Giggedy - but...prior to that, we endulate ... could be fantastically so but we'll see on magnitude. The concerted membership of the GEFs out through the early 3rd week of November is striking in agreement. This also 'appears' to situate with an emerging MJO and a recurving series of modeled West Pac TCs - now that the latter is climatologically 'turning on' as a signal/induction - The west Pac is probably going to slip negative toward the 2nd week of November...and it's an emerging signal...so we may see negative flux in the EPO ensue 3-5 days later heading between the 15th and 20th... These things sometimes take a bit longer to set up, too - so subject to change. Before that, we bask in warmth - which has been on the charts for some time. I was wrong to think it would correct NW ( continental trajectory...), or at least would think I was wrong at this point...given to the multi-modal/multi-model sourcing indicating this side of the hemisphere isn't just +AO ...the PNAP is lapsing west so the westerlies are pulling out of the east ... Code for big ridge ...seeing the operational runs building that in agreement .. heh, bet goes down on a positive temperature departures for 3 to 5 days somewhere after 3rd or 4th - 12th or so.. Then think we may see 'real' winter arrive Early guess ... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 The coldest presidential Election Day in my memory was 1960. This could be similar. I would take the ensuing winter in a heartbeat! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 1 hour ago, weathafella said: The coldest presidential Election Day in my memory was 1960. This could be similar. I would take the ensuing winter in a heartbeat! Hopefully this is similar to 1960. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScituateWX Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Heard the weeklies are ugly not that it means Much. One met on twitter saying looks like 11-12 not that I would put any stock into them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 Election day clipper and upslope? Some decent signals for some orographic snow to start the week. EURO/GGEM/GFS all showing the signals. Cold air mass too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 15 hours ago, weathafella said: The coldest presidential Election Day in my memory was 1960. This could be similar. I would take the ensuing winter in a heartbeat! So would I if I still lived in NNJ - those 3 big storms totaled over 60" at my place. Not so good where I live now; for that winter the Farmington co-op recorded 0.7" less than EWR, a not common phenomenon, and those 3 events were key: 56.3" at EWR, 5.5" at Farmington. And all 3 of those election day clipper maps stop the snow a few miles south/north/west of my place. It's too early to whine about missing snow, but I hope the results so far aren't the pattern - snow in N. Maine and the mts on 16-17 then in SNE today while we see neither flakes nor sun in either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 I still suspect the spike in the AO is over done in the GEFs derivatives ... I could visualize that rounding the arc off and then descending down - and we note the remarkably concerted agreement toward the 2nd week of November. The -AO is formulaic ... and jives longer term statistically against an underpinning MJO signal: NOTE, the EPS mean is decent agreement ... I have not seen the most recent Euro values...but there is at least some - albeit weak .. - corroboration coming from the GFS side... The only problem is, will any ensuing MJO signal garner strength enough to transmit its signal into the westerlies.. When the MJO matures to coherency on the left side of the above diagram, this promotes mid latitude cyclogenesis ... That enhances the wind fluxing from the E at ~60 N, and that's an indirect .. if not driver, in causing the AO to descend in the calculation/EOFs ... Whether there is actually concomitant blocking noted at higher latitudes or not, the enhancing cyclogenesis at mid latitudes --> driving the lower Ferrel latitude easterly jets does show up in the EOF calculations as a downward AO modulation. So in short, it is not clear if high latitude blocking is apparent using these teleconnector/techniques, or, ...is it a favorably MJO giving rise to some increase cyclogenic parameterization/modeling out there in the distance that is "pulling" the AO down by virtue of enhancing easterly flow? The answer - what difference does it make... It's still a cold signal for 45 N ... and, seeing as we are in a era where we fold over the western continental hypsometric response to what is increasingly evidenced as a CC-related, ambient Pacific jet velocities raging in perpetuity ..., that tells me that after next week's rebound, we probably do something like now ..again, and it may be more potent on the next sequence. But I also wouldn't be surprised if we match the current SD in the other direction for a couple days over the apex of this warm up, too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 Looks like NNE gets a shot at accumulating snows on Sunday Night/Monday if the Euro is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Looks like NNE gets a shot at accumulating snows on Sunday Night/Monday if the Euro is correct. Could be some good upslope for the N-NW favored areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Could be some good upslope for the N-NW favored areas. Certainly looks that way, Backside looks good in those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 17 minutes ago, dryslot said: Certainly looks that way, Backside looks good in those areas. That was an awesome run, ha. When the global models show that, it’s a big signal. Especially in a cold air mass ratios could be decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 10 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That was an awesome run, ha. When the global models show that, it’s a big signal. Especially in a cold air mass ratios could be decent. You do well in these and i expect you will on this verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 @dendrite, Did you get anything frozen today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now