Typhoon Tip Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 You know ... as an afterthought on the PNA - definitely want to see the EPS take on the mode/modality of the PNA because if looking back along that curve... smoothing out bumps and do-dads ...the 5-week trend, all the way back to mid October, is up. It may be doing so too gradually to 'ignite' a larger -scaled correction event ... or, just not enough to 'trigger' one ( yet )... like when the it 'spikes' and so forth. But, that's interesting long term trend line there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 On 11/19/2020 at 6:46 PM, Typhoon Tip said: You know ... as an afterthought on the PNA - definitely want to see the EPS take on the mode/modality of the PNA because if looking back along that curve... smoothing out bumps and do-dads ...the 5-week trend, all the way back to mid October, is up. It may be doing so too gradually to 'ignite' a larger -scaled correction event ... or, just not enough to 'trigger' one ( yet )... like when the it 'spikes' and so forth. But, that's interesting long term trend line there... Expand I don't think the DM period will be heavily RNA, as many suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 On 11/19/2020 at 6:51 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think the DM period will be heavily RNA, as many suspect. Expand well...I'm not sure it really can if the PNA is doing that ... but it is just the GEFs... ha but anyway, I forgot about the weird events around Halloween with that ordeal ...may not be a corrective event but, the cold loading into midriff Canada and ultimately servicing the cold for that snow event was delivered by a PNA mode change as I just suggestively annotated ...and it seems this next modality is well agreed upon in said GEFs ensemble members/mean ... It's interesting - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 Lol...omg - it's true though... We see this so often ... gotta get the mood so low as to challenge the very endurance of man ...and then and only then, viola... We're a p.h. from glory right on cue - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 As someone from the Mid-Atlantic, I do find it a little surprising and somewhat pathetic how quickly some of you guys have thrown in the towel and fallen into misery over the winter. We have spent many years watching you guys steal victory from the jaws of defeat with late-blooming storms that totally screw us. It seems way too early to throw in the towel in SNE if weenies in MD, VA, and even damn NC of all places are still holding out hope. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 On 11/19/2020 at 5:54 PM, radarman said: I'm just happy the GFS and GEFS got a little more progressive with the system around Thanksgiving. Let's get that thing out of here by early Thurs morning. A lot of folks hoping to eat dinner outside. We'll worry about snow later on. That 4" in Oct has us up on climo for like another 3 weeks lol. Expand Meanwhile the Euro says pack em inside ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 On 11/19/2020 at 6:42 PM, mreaves said: My wife didn't take any of the first and never filled the script for the second Expand Yeah, they screw up my metabolism. I still have those 10 year old ones in the freezer. They did come in very handy when I had a tooth infection in the height of the pandemic last spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 On 11/19/2020 at 7:21 PM, PhineasC said: As someone from the Mid-Atlantic, I do find it a little surprising and somewhat pathetic how quickly some of you guys have thrown in the towel and fallen into misery over the winter. We have spent many years watching you guys steal victory from the jaws of defeat with late-blooming storms that totally screw us. It seems way too early to throw in the towel in SNE if weenies in MD, VA, and even damn NC of all places are still holding out hope. Expand They always have hope down there. Rookies who don’t see snow .Up here we know when to hold, when to fold. Seasoned vets who have had snow 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 On 11/19/2020 at 7:21 PM, PhineasC said: As someone from the Mid-Atlantic, I do find it a little surprising and somewhat pathetic how quickly some of you guys have thrown in the towel and fallen into misery over the winter. We have spent many years watching you guys steal victory from the jaws of defeat with late-blooming storms that totally screw us. It seems way too early to throw in the towel in SNE if weenies in MD, VA, and even damn NC of all places are still holding out hope. Expand I am still bitter from the year where you stole our snow. (2011/12?). A year that will live in infamy. Never forgive, never forget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 On 11/19/2020 at 7:35 PM, Cold Miser said: I am still bitter from the year where you stole our snow. (2011/12?). A year that will live in infamy. Never forgive, never forget. Expand 2009-2010 you're thinking of. Anyways, EPS are still showing the 11/29 system as kind of cutter-ish, but it is offering another chance with the mean trough still over the east around 12/1. So there might be a window somewhere in tha 11/29 to 12/2 time span....more likely for NNE than down here, but we'll see if it's still showing up as we get closer. On 11/19/2020 at 7:21 PM, PhineasC said: As someone from the Mid-Atlantic, I do find it a little surprising and somewhat pathetic how quickly some of you guys have thrown in the towel and fallen into misery over the winter. We have spent many years watching you guys steal victory from the jaws of defeat with late-blooming storms that totally screw us. It seems way too early to throw in the towel in SNE if weenies in MD, VA, and even damn NC of all places are still holding out hope. Expand We have some pretty pessimistic posters here that offset the optimists. We had a whole bunch of people whining and canceling winter in January 2013 and January 2015....both winters where I had over 100" of snow, LOL. After last year though, I think even hopelessly optimistic posters like Kevin are becoming skittish. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 On 11/19/2020 at 7:35 PM, Cold Miser said: I am still bitter from the year where you stole our snow. (2011/12?). A year that will live in infamy. Never forgive, never forget. Expand 2009-2010. I don’t even feel bad. We had such a crazy run, that for me......I could care less about that season. And we still had two double digit events locally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 I'm here @Damage In Tolland Are you happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 Actually the 12z Euro (oper.) is within the margins on that ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 On 11/19/2020 at 7:42 PM, weatherwiz said: I'm here @Damage In Tolland Are you happy Expand We had a major damaging severe wx event Sunday night, and you were nowhere to be seen. Many were very worried . You and Slot with Covid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 On 11/19/2020 at 7:45 PM, Damage In Tolland said: We had a major damaging severe wx event Sunday night, and you were nowhere to be seen. Many were very worried . You and Slot with Covid Expand It's been a bit rough...stressed with work and my girlfriend and I broke up a few weeks ago. I was actually going to make a thread here last Thursday or Friday for Sunday but forgot. I was down in Bethel for the event and the winds were quite strong...I would estimate gusts were easily 50-60 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 Canada is void of cold, but get the PNA up a bit and that could work later into December. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 That certainly is not Niña. At least how we perceive classic Niña looks. That’s more Nino to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 On 11/19/2020 at 7:41 PM, CoastalWx said: 2009-2010. I don’t even feel bad. We had such a crazy run, that for me......I could care less about that season. And we still had two double digit events locally. Expand That winter won't be repeated again in any of our lifetimes, so need to worry. But I can imagine it was traumatizing to watch. If I was still in MD and had to watch VA Beach get three HECS while I got high cirrus it would be hard to take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 On 11/19/2020 at 7:49 PM, PhineasC said: That winter won't be repeated again in any of our lifetimes, so need to worry. But I can imagine it was traumatizing to watch. If I was still in MD and had to watch VA Beach get three HECS while I got high cirrus it would be hard to take. Expand You got smoked where you are in February in Randolph. More than you could ever imagine lol. I mean at the time when you had the second KU in Feb it was tough then, but I don’t have the PTSD like some have here from that year...especially those in NNE lower elevations. I know Ray hated it too, but maybe I’m just getting older and realizing how spoiled we’ve had it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 That was the year where I realized how important it is to look at the mid levels, and not rip the qpf maps that we’re trying to jack DC when in actuality they tickled the slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 On 11/19/2020 at 7:49 PM, CoastalWx said: Canada is void of cold, but get the PNA up a bit and that could work later into December. Expand A higher PNA down the line might teleconnect to more of a decent -NAO if it happened. Those higher heights lurking in Quebec are kind of waiting for a wave-break. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 On 11/19/2020 at 8:01 PM, ORH_wxman said: A higher PNA down the line might teleconnect to more of a decent -NAO if it happened. Those higher heights lurking in Quebec are kind of waiting for a wave-break. Expand A negative EPO too, Really need that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 On 11/19/2020 at 8:02 PM, leo2000 said: A negative EPO too really need that. Expand Why? So you can risk cutters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 On 11/19/2020 at 8:01 PM, ORH_wxman said: A higher PNA down the line might teleconnect to more of a decent -NAO if it happened. Those higher heights lurking in Quebec are kind of waiting for a wave-break. Expand Yeah I was wondering about that. Get one storm to bomb and find a ridge up there and maybe it helps for anything afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 It's just snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 Uncle Leo. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 On 11/19/2020 at 8:03 PM, CoastalWx said: Why? So you can risk cutters? Expand Well doesn't help with the cold arctic air?. The distribution of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 On 11/19/2020 at 8:03 PM, CoastalWx said: Why? So you can risk cutters? Expand If it's a Yukon-based -EPO that is phasing with the PNA ridge, I;ll take it (happened at times in 2015)...but I will decline a massive ridge over the Bering Strait or W AK if I can have a generic +PNA ridge instead. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 On 11/19/2020 at 8:04 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: It's just snow. Expand It's part of it ... meh I don't think it's really about 'snow' as much ... not anymore. It's about the rush and possibility. Seriously have noticed that in-storm tenor change .as though the run up and the modeling was what folks wanted to savor in - once it's snowing ...the fervor seems reduce. Folks want and perhaps per deprivation ...need, a kind of 'giddy' mood surge, breaking toward joy happiness ... and when they set the coffee or water down in the morning and see a thread blown up by 12 pages over night, and big wound bomb on the charts ... they don't abuse their children that afternoon and evening... Kidding, but it's more about 'excitement' in general? There's even a kind of dependence on it... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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