Snowcrazed71 Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 I'm thinking the fires that happened throughout Australia and also here in the western US, there has to be some effect on long term cooling in the upper atmosphere. In turn.. It should have an effect on pur weather as far as colder and Snowier Winters here in the US. The question is, will it effect the Eastern half this Winter or next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 3 hours ago, MarkO said: Just took a peek at the Euro and GFS. Improvements in both. At least we're moving in the right direction. A white NNE Thanksgiving would be a welcome sight, even if it comes a day late. 3 hours ago, MarkO said: Just took a peek at the Euro and GFS. Improvements in both. At least we're moving in the right direction. A white NNE Thanksgiving would be a welcome sight, even if it comes a day late. I have been noticing a mute on the warming in the medium range as the time gets closer. I think it definitely has to do with the 1025 and over highs coming out of Southern Canada. That is a very good sign all we need is one of those to link but with a storm and could have a nice swfe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: I'm thinking the fires that happened throughout Australia and also here in the western US, there has to be some effect on long term cooling in the upper atmosphere. In turn.. It should have an effect on pur weather as far as colder and Snowier Winters here in the US. The question is, will it effect the Eastern half this Winter or next? It could also cool the stratosphere, augmenting the proclivity for a +AO regime, as witnessed last season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, leo2000 said: I have been noticing a mute on the warming in the medium range as the time gets closer. I think it definitely has to do with the 1025 and over highs coming out of Southern Canada. That is a very good sign all we need is one of those to link but with a storm and could have a nice swfe. The higher heights in Canada mean you’ll have those highs working on garbage air masses. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: The higher heights in Canada mean you’ll have those highs working on garbage air masses. Best air mass of the next two weeks happening today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: The higher heights in Canada mean you’ll have those highs working on garbage air masses. No CJ!!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: The higher heights in Canada mean you’ll have those highs working on garbage air masses. If the heights can migrate a bit north in Quebec like the weeklies show, then perhaps we could get more of a Dec 2012 deal where you have that faux blocking, but it is still somewhat effective....we had mostly crap airmasses but many were marginally cold and we did get some snow events that month....esp after 12/20. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, def. looks to begin awful. Still burning pretty meh climo for the coast....hopefully that changes a bit by mid month. Mail it in dude. We done 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Best air mass of the next two weeks happening today? Today’s likely the coldest day thru the end of 2020 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It could also cool the stratosphere, augmenting the proclivity for a +AO regime, as witnessed last season. From HM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 13 minutes ago, snowman19 said: From HM: That wouldn’t be good because post-volcanic stratosphere tends to support a strong +AO. We saw this after Pinatubo and El Chicon. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That wouldn’t be good because post-volcanic stratosphere tends to support a strong +AO. We saw this after Pinatubo and El Chicon. Weren't 93-94, and 95-96, considered to be "Pinatubo winters"? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 I love how that R2D2 dude from the mid Atlantic Jersey forum always comes in and just posts weenies on everyone’s comments 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I love how that R2D2 dude from the mid Atlantic Jersey forum always comes in and just posts weenies on everyone’s comments 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Today’s likely the coldest day thru the end of 2020 I don't bet but IMO that's hyperbole (as per your sig. ) Topped out at 27 today. That was the coldest max in Dec 2001, but that month went subzero 3 times. 12/06 had one day with max 21 but never got below 6 all month. All other Decembers here had month mini-maxes ranging from 20 down to -3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 18 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Weren't 93-94, and 95-96, considered to be "Pinatubo winters"? Not ‘95-96. We were 4-5 years displaced by that point. ‘93-94 it was probably still lingering though not as strong as ‘91-92 and ‘92-93. Don’t forget that ‘93-94 was a +AO/NAO winter. It did have a really good -EPO though for a large chunk of the middle of winter which is why it was so cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Mail it in dude. We done 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 40 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That wouldn’t be good because post-volcanic stratosphere tends to support a strong +AO. We saw this after Pinatubo and El Chicon. @ORH_wxman Do you think that is what is causing this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 It’s tough to say why the strat is cold. It’s been cold for years it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: It’s tough to say why the strat is cold. It’s been cold for years it seems. It's because it's close to space, bro. duh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: It's because it's close to space, bro. duh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 I swear to god if this winter sucks, I’m getting a toothless militia from Berlin to ship Phin back to MD. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 I don't know about that as there has been bad California wildfires in 2018 as well. That winter was a good winter if I remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, leo2000 said: I don't know about that as there has been bad California wildfires in 2018 as well. That winter was a good winter if I remember correctly. Ahh I think it’s all Voo-Doo anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I swear to god if this winter sucks, I’m getting a toothless militia from Berlin to ship Phin back to MD. I am legit worried about being the curse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 46 minutes ago, snowman19 said: @ORH_wxman Do you think that is what is causing this: 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s tough to say why the strat is cold. It’s been cold for years it seems. Yeah I’m not enough of a stratosphere expert to know what is exactly causing the excessive cold up there but maybe it’s at least partly due to the fires HM tweeted about. There was some tropical volcanic activity this year too but I didn’t think any of them were close to large enough to cause really noticeable strat interference ala El Chincon or definitely Pinatubo. Maybe it’s a combo of several things. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I am legit worried about being the curse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ahh I think it’s all Voo-Doo anyway. Nah. It’s all connected in one way or another in some form or fashion. The butterfly effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nah. It’s all connected in one way or another in some form or fashion. The butterfly effect. Ya..kind of like the Urasian snow cover index and the correlation to good winters in the eastern US? That too looks to be Voo-Doo lol. Nobody really knows....just theories that seem to eventually break down sooner or later..so who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: I love how that R2D2 dude from the mid Atlantic Jersey forum always comes in and just posts weenies on everyone’s comments Other people are doing it too. First thought was some bots had hacked their way in, now I think it's a side effect of that pesky covid cold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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