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November 2020 Discussion


Bostonseminole
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5 hours ago, Spanks45 said:

All that blocking (it is on the ensembles as well). Unfortunately there is no cold air anywhere nearby. So we end up with weather similar to May instead of late November

To be fair, late November most years is not all that cold in SNE. So that is not that big of a deal for late November imo.  Again that’s two weeks from now...so who knows what we have by then anyway? 
 

And Late May this year was cold and dank..horrible. And so was 1st half of June...then it snapped and man did the Heat come on in a huge(record breaking) way..all summer long.
 

 Things can change fast....

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50 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

To be fair, late November most years is not all that cold in SNE. So that is not that big of a deal for late November imo.  Again that’s two weeks from now...so who knows what we have by then anyway? 
 

And Late May this year was cold and dank..horrible. And so was 1st half of June...then it snapped and man did the Heat come on in a huge(record breaking) way..all summer long.
 

 Things can change fast....

I know, hopefully we get a reverse of last year. Long range looked great, but we never got it...but we are asking 2020 to actually be positive, so who knows. We can all put this aside when we are enjoying our first winter storm warning of the season.

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3 hours ago, Spanks45 said:

I know, hopefully we get a reverse of last year. Long range looked great, but we never got it...but we are asking 2020 to actually be positive, so who knows. We can all put this aside when we are enjoying our first winter storm warning of the season.

Nah winter is done man. Unless it comes at night you have sun angle to worry about now.........................wait a minute

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6 hours ago, TheSnowman said:

Just Horrible.  And WHY has no one talked about that this hit the Isle de Providencia at Category 5 Strength?  98% of the buildings there are heavily damaged!  

 

https://twitter.com/RousselJulio/status/1328486375017095168?s=20

because this is a New England forum and that hurricane ain’t happening here.

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11 hours ago, greenmtnwx said:

You guys are too much. We could just as easily have a record-breaking snowfall season or futility. You just never know. Long -range forecasting is fun and sometimes useful, but it's glorified guesswork at this point. A month from now we could be staring down a split PV AND a monster -NAO, or a historic SE ridge and an Alaskan pig. Either is just as likely as the other. 

 

lol. Stick around my friend. You ain't seen nothing yet, especially if futility comes to fruition over the following weeks and beyond.

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6 hours ago, TheSnowman said:

Just Horrible.  And WHY has no one talked about that this hit the Isle de Providencia at Category 5 Strength?  98% of the buildings there are heavily damaged!  

 

https://twitter.com/RousselJulio/status/1328486375017095168?s=20

Whatever was in that tweet was so horrible it was removed.

tweet.jpg.ebffbe9f889096662f823840360d7d03.jpg

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6 hours ago, TheSnowman said:

Just Horrible.  And WHY has no one talked about that this hit the Isle de Providencia at Category 5 Strength?  98% of the buildings there are heavily damaged!  

 

https://twitter.com/RousselJulio/status/1328486375017095168?s=20

cuz it's not really landing in a populated area, mostly just swamps and woods. 

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We joke about the pig but it moves in and out and in and....on guidance and has for days.   Yesterday the end of the eps was particularly bad.  Today we’re with the anti pig d6 on the 0Z run, high water pig d10-12 with some signs of a trend towards relaxing at the end....we wax we wane.

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I don't know why I keep bothering to update/push a colder/stormier profile over this side of Hemisphere ... ' shit keeps doing this .. 

How about this "La Nina" structure, huh? ... wtf  This straight up looks to me like my hypothesis back in August - sorry to say.  That the "La Nina"  ??   ... it's not coupled to the atmosphere. I think NCEP is full of shit in their PDF too ...trying to negotiate an interpretation, is what's up with them, because there is no way in f'ing hell this below ...

Untitled.thumb.jpg.a06a704bebbac937f6031daf1dfad01a.jpg  

 

If the general hemispheric eddy was truly coupled to the La Nina ... we wouldn't have   EL F'ING NINO JETS COMING INTO CALIFORNIA!   ... assholes...  Stop selling interpretations, put down the coffee and Solitaire, and do your jobs. 

Oh shit I'm kidding... I'm sure they're all Master's and Phd asperger focused socially dysfunctional geniuses ...

However, I don't agree that the hemisphere is "coupling" to any forcing by the ENSO state.. .because I've grown tired of reading their ENSO publications, then ... fielding these kind of modeling complexions by the Euro ( left ) above,  (...having them more less verify as we are seeing enhancing precipitation into the at least N. Ca up through Wa/Or ).  I said in August ... if not an exact quote, ' La Nina may happenstance look like that from time to time, as the pattern migrates through the idealized mode, but it won't be because of the La Nina... '   - it was in deference to the idea that the HC is muting these ENSOs because it has expand beyond and completely engulfed the normal "triggering latitudes" where their modulation then forces patternization.  In this case...I suspect with having wind flux anomalies in the mid latitudes that have been raging since...oh, 2002 ... there has to be a compensatory mass somewhere... Some of the wind channeling off toward polarward motion ...spliting N into the WCBs from cyclonic/trough gestation... But some of it by convention does split S and ends up underneath, and thus ...you have [ possibly ] enhancing easterly trades, purely as a function of more in must move more along those lower latitudes... causing SS stressing and plying the surface oceanic temperature distribution into mimicking La Nine; as the base-line state, but not really indicative of actually having one. I'm starting to wonder .. is that intrinsically misleading...So, we end up expecting to see the right annotation above, but because the total hemisphere is really ...doing something else,  the left panel keeps existing

Hypotheticals aside/here and now:

Thing is ... I wasn't making that other stuff up re the GEFs ( at least - for how little they must be worth ) derived teleconnectors.  They were/are biased toward a colder/stormier suggestion ... enough so that even if they don't ultimately verify a convincing look, when moving the mode of the AO down, the NAO down, and the PNA up ...that synergy typically gets interesting ( at least) .   

But this?   Above?  Even the operation GFS is doing this ... and altogether, the operational runs are kind of in some sort of epic tug-a-war against that.  It's like some agency is designing this to deliberately create a futility in the art of predict lol

The EPS ... does anyone have those numbers?  

Like ... I don't wanna read anyones interpretation...  I want to see 

EPS NAO =  ? 

EPS PNA =  ?

EPS AO   =  ? 

...The only ones available to the easy-to-find Internet/Americas appears to be the MJO coverage offered at the Climate Diagnostic Center.   

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36 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't know why I keep bothering to update/push a colder/stormier profile over this side of Hemisphere ... ' shit keeps doing this .. 

How about this "La Nina" structure, huh? ... wtf  This straight up looks to me like my hypothesis back in August - sorry to say.  That the "La Nina"  ??   ... it's not coupled to the atmosphere. I think NCEP is full of shit in their PDF too ...trying to negotiate an interpretation, is what's up with them, because there is no way in f'ing hell this below ...

Untitled.thumb.jpg.a06a704bebbac937f6031daf1dfad01a.jpg  

 

If the general hemispheric eddy was truly coupled to the La Nina ... we wouldn't have   EL F'ING NINO JETS COMING INTO CALIFORNIA!   ... assholes...  Stop selling interpretations, put down the coffee and Solitaire, and do your jobs. 

Oh shit I'm kidding... I'm sure they're all Master's and Phd asperger focused socially dysfunctional geniuses ...

However, I don't agree that the hemisphere is "coupling" to any forcing by the ENSO state.. .because I've grown tired of reading their ENSO publications, then ... fielding these kind of modeling complexions by the Euro ( left ) above,  (...having them more less verify as we are seeing enhancing precipitation into the at least N. Ca up through Wa/Or ).  I said in August ... if not an exact quote, ' La Nina may happenstance look like that from time to time, as the pattern migrates through the idealized mode, but it won't be because of the La Nina... '   - it was in deference to the idea that the HC is muting these ENSOs because it has expand beyond and completely engulfed the normal "triggering latitudes" where their modulation then forces patternization.  In this case...I suspect with having wind flux anomalies in the mid latitudes that have been raging since...oh, 2002 ... there has to be a compensatory mass somewhere... Some of the wind channeling off toward polarward motion ...spliting N into the WCBs from cyclonic/trough gestation... But some of it by convention does split S and ends up underneath, and thus ...you have [ possibly ] enhancing easterly trades, purely as a function of more in must move more along those lower latitudes... causing SS stressing and plying the surface oceanic temperature distribution into mimicking La Nine; as the base-line state, but not really indicative of actually having one. I'm starting to wonder .. is that intrinsically misleading...So, we end up expecting to see the right annotation above, but because the total hemisphere is really ...doing something else,  the left panel keeps existing

Hypotheticals aside/here and now:

Thing is ... I wasn't making that other stuff up re the GEFs ( at least - for how little they must be worth ) derived teleconnectors.  They were/are biased toward a colder/stormier suggestion ... enough so that even if they don't ultimately verify a convincing look, when moving the mode of the AO down, the NAO down, and the PNA up ...that synergy typically gets interesting ( at least) .   

But this?   Above?  Even the operation GFS is doing this ... and altogether, the operational runs are kind of in some sort of epic tug-a-war against that.  It's like some agency is designing this to deliberately create a futility in the art of predict lol

The EPS ... does anyone have those numbers?  

Like ... I don't wanna read anyones interpretation...  I want to see 

EPS NAO =  ? 

EPS PNA =  ?

EPS AO   =  ? 

...The only ones available to the easy-to-find Internet/Americas appears to be the MJO coverage offered at the Climate Diagnostic Center.   

 

Nov 17 epo.png

Nov 17 nao.png

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2 hours ago, weathafella said:

We joke about the pig but it moves in and out and in and....on guidance and has for days.   Yesterday the end of the eps was particularly bad.  Today we’re with the anti pig d6 on the 0Z run, high water pig d10-12 with some signs of a trend towards relaxing at the end....we wax we wane.

It’s too close for comfort, regardless. Me thinks that will be the prevailing theme this season...model chaos.

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