Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 Damage coming. Also there’s a sneaky spinner threat on the warm front in CT. For @weatherwiz to miss this is strange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Stuff coming down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Damage coming. Also there’s a sneaky spinner threat on the warm front in CT. For @weatherwiz to miss this is strange Hard to know what to believe. Those modeled wind speeds are sometimes absolutely terrible, but it also seems like they've occasionally been verifying. You guys have had some great high-end wind events when those progs used to never ever seem to work out... so who knows, ha. Good luck. Edit: Ha or that other tweet you posted says it better. Can never know when to trust it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Stuff coming down I guess we’ll see? I wouldn’t be buying all in just yet. Those are usually overblown, and ya even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes. Let’s See what tomorrow’s modeling shows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 28 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I guess we’ll see? I wouldn’t be buying all in just yet. Those are usually overblown, and ya even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes. Let’s See what tomorrow’s modeling shows? I am well aware of the history of over-done max wind gusts by modeling, but if you have been closely following the short-term record (past year) of the euro ever since last fall, it has been remarkably good with at least 4 significant events... Maybe it craps the bed this time around, but it deserves to be taken seriously, as far as I am concerned... especially when it has multiple runs with these numbers... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, FXWX said: I am well aware of the history of over-done max wind gusts by modeling, but if you have been closely following the short-term record (past year) of the euro ever since last fall, it has been remarkably good with at least 4 significant events... Maybe it craps the bed this time around, but it deserves to be taken seriously, as far as I am concerned... especially when it has multiple runs with these numbers... We tried to tell em but they yawned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We tried to tell em but they yawned Lol, Just a bit skeptical that’s all. I get it, the euro has been on a hot streak with wind events the last year, but let’s see what modeling shows later tonight/tmrw? If it’s still looking like legit high wind warning material come tomorrow, and verify’s as such, we’ll give you the credit for the early call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 That line on the NAM is beastly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Every piece of guidance has 50-70mph gusts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Under 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Every piece of guidance has 50-70mph gusts Box tosses, enjoy your 40mph gust. The only thing coming down is the size of your leaf piles. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 23 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Box tosses, enjoy your 40mph gust. The only thing coming down is the size of your leaf piles. I’ll take Walt Drag thoughts over them. Lol. BOX ain’t what they used to be unfortunately.The fine line gusts to 55-65 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’ll take Walt Drag thoughts over them. Lol. BOX ain’t what they used to be unfortunately.The fine line gusts to 55-65 You've downgraded from 70 to 65? Did new model information come in? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 We yawn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 58 minutes ago, kdxken said: You've downgraded from 70 to 65? Did new model information come in? Lol...his spin is in full effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 It will be a typical windy night. Lots of 40-50 gusts. Maybe isolated higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 12z NAM is still intense 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 We’ve seen this play out many times. Maybe we get the one out of 10 times it overperforms but other than a few minutes of fun I’m guessing nbd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Nice temp gradient this week between NNE having a real solid cold shot and meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 16 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: We’ve seen this play out many times. Maybe we get the one out of 10 times it overperforms but other than a few minutes of fun I’m guessing nbd Not even a wind warning in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Nice temp gradient this week between NNE having a real solid cold shot and meh I’m shocked to see the GFS lost the 4 feet of snow for S of Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Not even a wind warning in these parts. And that says it all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Because it’s with convection. Jesus H . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Let us all just agree on sustained wind of 80 MPH with gusts to 110...... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: It will be a typical windy night. Lots of 40-50 gusts. Maybe isolated higher. That's where I'm at. Cape/Islands has some potential to go higher, but the LLJ cranks too late for most (even up here). 44 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Because it’s with convection. Jesus H . Visions of derechos dance in your head. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Just now, OceanStWx said: That's where I'm at. Cape/Islands has some potential to go higher, but the LLJ cranks too late for most (even up here). Visions of derechos dance in your head. This is very reasonable and expected 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Saw this in the NYC forum wheres Paul? Possible 1630Z upgrade... Full outlook update expected by 1630Z with consideration of a Slight Risk across the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast with convection rapidly progressing across this region during the evening to early tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 The thing 10/7 had going for it that this one doesn't is the thermodynamic environment. 10/7 featured some pretty decent low level lapse rates and mid level lapse rates around 7C/km. The timing here doesn't work out for low level lapse rates to be significantly steep, and mid level is pretty meh. Enough for thunder possibly but not robust convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 The SPC has placed most of CT under a slight risk for severe weather later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 38/27 with a sleet shower right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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