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Holiday forecasts


Brian D
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Going to start with Thanksgiving Day. Looks like high pressure over the Lakes, with low pressure system(s) over in the plains/mtns. Our western areas may see some affects that day, but expecting some messy weather for the weekend. Not sure if it will be major or not, but inclement weather over the weekend looks likely. Something to watch.

The map may look something like this.

 

Thx giving 2020 wx map.gif

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Come Christmas Day, I'm expecting colder weather to arrive as a front from Christmas eve passes through. It looks like a re-enforcing front or a weak clipper/trough may follow behind, so looks mainly cloudy with snow shwers possible and LES.

Here's my map for this holiday.

 

Christmas Day 2020.gif

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Might as well put my winter thinking here.

I really think everyone should be satisfied with the winter that is coming, unless your not much into it. I'm a little older now, and brutal cold is tough to deal with so I prefer not seeing much of that. Unfortunately, there will be plenty of that, especially later on in Jan and into Feb when the worst of it will make it's presence known (will it rival the cold snap of 2019?). Plenty of healthy snow chances for everyone. Some mild weather will be mixed in as well. That's normal.

Oct is turning out to be as wild as I thought it would, will this winter get as cold as I think it could?

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1 hour ago, Brian D said:

Might as well put my winter thinking here.

I really think everyone should be satisfied with the winter that is coming, unless your not much into it. I'm a little older now, and brutal cold is tough to deal with so I prefer not seeing much of that. Unfortunately, there will be plenty of that, especially later on in Jan and into Feb when the worst of it will make it's presence known (will it rival the cold snap of 2019?). Plenty of healthy snow chances for everyone. Some mild weather will be mixed in as well. That's normal.

Oct is turning out to be as wild as I thought it would, will this winter get as cold as I think it could?

Share some of that wild October weather.  Been a pretty benign month here so far. 

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18 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Share some of that wild October weather.  Been a pretty benign month here so far. 

You can have it. I'd like fall to keep going a little longer. Nov in Oct is a bit rough. Makes winter just that much longer.

Here, I'll try to force it your way. lol :gun_bandana:

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On 10/26/2020 at 7:04 AM, Cary67 said:

Any idea when  your 4th of July maps are due out?

Instead of a map, I'll just tell you if you really want to know.

Stormy July 4 weekend on tap!!

Folks can laugh, but I wont be using a crow feather as a toothpick on that day. :) I'm pretty confident about this. I've already done well with Labor day and now Halloween in the fall forecast thread. We'll see about the upcoming holidays.

It's fun to watch my forecasts pan out. But I also realize I can make mistakes, so we shall see what we see.

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21 minutes ago, Brian D said:

Instead of a map, I'll just tell you if you really want to know.

Stormy July 4 weekend on tap!!

Folks can laugh, but I wont be using a crow feather as a toothpick on that day. :) I'm pretty confident about this. I've already done well with Labor day and now Halloween in the fall forecast thread. We'll see about the upcoming holidays.

It's fun to watch my forecasts pan out. But I also realize I can make mistakes, so we shall see what we see.

Have you considered being a little more detailed in your maps?

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 10/21/2020 at 4:28 PM, Brian D said:

Might as well put my winter thinking here.

I really think everyone should be satisfied with the winter that is coming, unless your not much into it. I'm a little older now, and brutal cold is tough to deal with so I prefer not seeing much of that. Unfortunately, there will be plenty of that, especially later on in Jan and into Feb when the worst of it will make it's presence known (will it rival the cold snap of 2019?). Plenty of healthy snow chances for everyone. Some mild weather will be mixed in as well. That's normal.

Oct is turning out to be as wild as I thought it would, will this winter get as cold as I think it could?

Just a little more here.

 Dec is looking to be a mixed bag like we have seen so far this Fall. Dec is still technically Fall until the Solstice so why not continue the Fallness of 2020 :) Anyway, I think Dec ends up near avg to above avg for the region. Come Jan tho, I think we start seeing the cold being more prevalent than the warmer weather(which will show up), and the end of Jan into early Feb shows signs of being brutally cold. In fact, Feb as whole looks really cold.

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On 10/20/2020 at 5:02 PM, Brian D said:

Going to start with Thanksgiving Day. Looks like high pressure over the Lakes, with low pressure system(s) over in the plains/mtns. Our western areas may see some affects that day, but expecting some messy weather for the weekend. Not sure if it will be major or not, but inclement weather over the weekend looks likely. Something to watch.

The map may look something like this.

 

Thx giving 2020 wx map.gif

Gov models continue to show something for T-Day. Few days to go tho.

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1 hour ago, Brian D said:

Just a little more here.

 Dec is looking to be a mixed bag like we have seen so far this Fall. Dec is still technically Fall until the Solstice so why not continue the Fallness of 2020 :) Anyway, I think Dec ends up near avg to above avg for the region. Come Jan tho, I think we start seeing the cold being more prevalent than the warmer weather(which will show up), and the end of Jan into early Feb shows signs of being brutally cold. In fact, Feb as whole looks really cold.

The flip to cold and snowy right around the holidays, after a mild November and early December, is always a good thing. 

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On 10/20/2020 at 5:02 PM, Brian D said:

Going to start with Thanksgiving Day. Looks like high pressure over the Lakes, with low pressure system(s) over in the plains/mtns. Our western areas may see some affects that day, but expecting some messy weather for the weekend. Not sure if it will be major or not, but inclement weather over the weekend looks likely. Something to watch.

The map may look something like this.

 

Thx giving 2020 wx map.gif

So it looks like the weather I was expecting for T-Day weekend is happening today. The maps are very close.

The weather map for Thanksgiving tho is similar to what I had, but the weather is not. So I missed it by a couple days.

 

nov 24 wx map.png

T-day wx map.png

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On 11/25/2020 at 1:53 PM, BuffaloWeather said:

I'm looking to plan a Post Covid beach party on July 4th. What are we looking at? @Brian D

It looks like a storm front will be passing through the Lakes region over the July 4 weekend followed by high pressure. It's very possible that the entire region should be under that influence by eve of the 4th for good viewing of the works. Even a chill in the air is possible for some. Another front will be knocking on my door that night or the next day.

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