Epsilon - #27 Oct 20- , 2020

[Windspeed]

Newest MW..

[Windspeed]

Very nice presentation. Large outer band. Perhaps even some frontal characteristics in the outer fringes due to the large-scale trough / upper low, with of course the purely tropical Epsilon still powering on in the center.

[NorthHillsWx]

20 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Very nice presentation. Large outer band. Perhaps even some frontal characteristics in the outer fringes due to the large-scale trough / upper low, with of course the purely tropical Epsilon still powering on in the center.

This is a neat system. Definitely has some frontal look to it in the outer segments but that small core keeps roaring away 

[Amped]

37 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Very nice presentation. Large outer band. Perhaps even some frontal characteristics in the outer fringes due to the large-scale trough / upper low, with of course the purely tropical Epsilon still powering on in the center.

 

GFS  has a similar outer band forming, but it isn't supposed to happen for another 30 hrs.

 

[yoda]

Still only 85mph at 11 even with the better appearance 

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
1100 PM AST Thu Oct 22 2020

...EPSILON PASSING WELL EAST OF BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.6N 61.6W
ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

[yoda]

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
1100 PM AST Thu Oct 22 2020

The eye became a little more apparent on satellite images but 
recently has become less defined.  The system has a somewhat 
ragged-looking Central Dense Overcast with a broad outer cloud band 
wrapping around the western semicircle of the circulation.  
Upper-level outflow is fairly well-defined over the northern portion 
of the system.  The current intensity estimate is kept at 75 kt in 
agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB and objective ADT 
estimates from UW-CIMSS.  Since Epsilon should be passing near a 
modestly warm oceanic eddy during the next day or so, some slight 
short-term restrengthening is allowed for in the official forecast.  
Later in the forecast period, gradual weakening should occur due to 
cooler waters, but the system is likely to remain a strong cyclone 
for the next few days.  By around 72 hours, the GFS and SHIPS 
guidance indicates that Epsilon will have undergone extratropical 
transition over the north Atlantic.  Afterward, the global models 
show the system merging with another cyclone at the higher 
latitudes.

Epsilon continues to move just a bit to the west of due north, or
at about 345/8 kt.  The cyclone is expected to move mainly
northward on the western side of a mid-tropospheric ridge during
the next couple of days.  By around 48 hours, Epsilon should
turn northeastward and accelerate as it becomes caught up in
the mid-latitude westerlies.  The official track forecast is
not much different from the previous one, and is very close to
the latest corrected dynamical consensus, HCCA, prediction.

The forecast wind radii, which show the cyclone expanding over the
next few days, are in good agreement with the dynamical consensus
radii guidance, RVCN.

Key Messages:

1. Winds at Bermuda will subside overnight, and the Tropical Storm 
Warning for that island has been discontinued.

2. Dangerous and potentially life-threatening surf and rip currents
are expected along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater
Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States,
and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 32.6N  61.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 33.8N  61.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 35.8N  61.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 37.8N  60.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 40.5N  56.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  25/1200Z 44.3N  50.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  26/0000Z 48.4N  41.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[NorthHillsWx]

Epsilon looks pretty healthy this morning. In a season where hurricanes have struggled to maintain an eye for long stretches, thus storm is the exception 

[Amped]

The outflow and core look impressive for a storm at this latitude.  

[Windspeed]

5PM ADT is interesting...

Vertical wind shear is expected to remain low over the next two days 
and intensity changes will likely be influenced by inner core 
fluctuations. The intensity guidance does suggest some modest 
intensification is possible in the short-term as Epsilon moves over 
a warm eddy in the Gulf Stream, assuming the current secondary 
eyewall consolidates. Based on this reasoning, the official 
intensity forecast was nudged slightly upward for the first 24 h. 
Afterwards, slow weakening is expected but Epsilons 34- and 50-kt 
wind field should continue to expand to the south while it 
undergoes extratropical transition, completing the process by early 
Monday.

There was a recon flight mission to deploy an OHC bouy drop NE of Bermuda. It's possible they found the Gulf Stream OHC to be warmer and deeper than expected. Especially if a warm eddy in in the forecast track. Would be fascinating to see Epsilon's larger eye band actually intensify at such a high latitude so late in the year but outflow is bonkers and shear will remain low enough to not be a deterrence. Guess we'll see...

[Boston Bulldog]

While the ET storm has formed around it, the inner core of Epsilon still seems healthy and fully tropical. Another little convective blow up is trying to wrap around the center, maybe one last hurrah

[yoda]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
1100 PM AST Fri Oct 23 2020

...LARGE EPSILON CONTINUES TO CHURN UP THE NORTH ATLANTIC...
...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.5N 62.1W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES

[yoda]

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
1100 PM AST Fri Oct 23 2020

Convection in Epsilon's southeastern quadrant has faded during the
past several hours, including the outer eyewall that was previously
nearly closed. The hurricane's cloud shield has consequently taken
on a very asymmetric shape. Satellite intensity estimates from all
agencies have decreased since this afternoon, so the intensity is
lowered slightly to 70 kt. It is worth noting that regardless of 
the peak winds, recent ASCAT data indicate that the wind field of 
the hurricane has expanded.

Epsilon is now moving over a relatively warm eddy in the Gulf
Stream and this may prevent the hurricane's structure from
substantially decaying further for another 12 to 24 hours. In fact,
some models still indicate that Epsilon could briefly regain some
strength tomorrow morning. By tomorrow evening the hurricane should
begin moving over cooler waters, and extratropical (ET) transition 
will likely begin in earnest. The cyclone will still likely be at 
or  near hurricane strength when the ET process is completed in 
around 48 h. Perhaps more importantly, Epsilon will continue to 
produce a large area of gale- and storm-force winds even after it 
becomes post-tropical. Epsilon is then forecast to merge with 
another large non-tropical low early next week, and the resulting 
low pressure system could produce hazardous conditions over 
portions of far North Atlantic for several more days thereafter.

Almost no change was made to the NHC track forecast. Epsilon is 
expected to turn northeastward and accelerate in that direction 
over the course of the next couple of days ahead of a deep-layer 
mid-latitude trough approaching from the west. The models are in 
excellent agreement for a recurving cyclone. While there is always 
some uncertainty in the forward speed of such cases, confidence in 
the NHC forecast is relatively high. The track, intensity, and wind 
radii forecasts are all near the various multi-model consensus aids 
(TVCN, IVCN, and RVCN).

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 36.5N  62.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 38.1N  61.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 40.4N  57.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 43.6N  50.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 47.4N  40.9W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  26/1200Z 51.7N  29.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[wdrag]

For what it's worth... Atlantic sea state as analyzed by NOAA OPC at 6z/24 (this morning).  9+ feet had extended back to the Bahamas yesterday. 

Swells of 6-7 feet are occurring along the LI Atlantic coast.