Orangeburgwx Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 DAMN! 122kts at 925mbSent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Looks like NHC making the upgrade to a major hurricane and 100kts at the next advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 21, 2020 Author Share Posted October 21, 2020 3 hours ago, Amped said: So looks like all models the NHC and the ADT were way under on the intensity. Almost a Cat 3 Ships was highest early but consensus and experience probably tempered. Global models have been looking like a beast Fri-Sat. Have seen 95 KT at 850mb forecast. So yes all models way too low and way too slow. Walt 434pm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Can we talk about the ET transition predicted by the GFS? GFS consistently showing an extratropical low near Iceland with a central pressure < 930 mb... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 21, 2020 Author Share Posted October 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, jpeters3 said: Can we talk about the ET transition predicted by the GFS? GFS consistently showing an extratropical low near Iceland with a central pressure < 930 mb... Possible w phase of northern stream. Going to be a problem next 5 days at least 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 25 minutes ago, jpeters3 said: Can we talk about the ET transition predicted by the GFS? GFS consistently showing an extratropical low near Iceland with a central pressure < 930 mb... Euro is similar. It backs into Iceland as a 940mb low in the next few frames. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 It appears Epsilon continues to strengthen. A ring of deep convection has filled in around an increasingly-circular-and-smooth eye. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Haven't seen an eye this pretty since Dorian last year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 28 minutes ago, Newman said: Haven't seen an eye this pretty since Dorian last year i guess you did not pay attention to hurricane laura.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 I think this thing is going for cat 4... very impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Very interesting to see what recon finds given satellite has only improved from earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 1 minute ago, hlcater said: Very interesting to see what recon finds given satellite has only improved from earlier Wow, I didn't even realize another recon was right there, on the way into the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A777 Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Impressive Eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, hlcater said: Very interesting to see what recon finds given satellite has only improved from earlier Cool looking storm. I like it when they’re cute but have a broad envelope as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 As impressive as this is, it is also positioned inside of a big upper trough. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Just now, hawkeye_wx said: As impressive as this is, it is also positioned inside of a big upper trough. That makes it even more impressive, what a freak of nature. Usually ULL's are the destroyer of cyclones; this one has provided the perfect pocket for a major Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 950mb extrapolated. 110kts FL. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Flagged 97kts SFMR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 952 mb per dropsonde. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 1 hour ago, Newman said: Haven't seen an eye this pretty since Dorian last year Wow, even in 2020. Hurricanes can still enjoy an eye. Sure is pretty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Very photogenic little system. One of my favorites this year for sure. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Gorgeous eye. Love it when Mother Nature is free to do her thing. Hurricanes are so important to life on Earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Pretty amazing little hurricane. A shallow tropopause with cold pool aloft under minimal shear. Core of hurricane positioned perfectly under the small anticyclone, which is of course positioned perfectly in the middle of a large-scale upper trough. Marginal 26-27°C SSTs is more than enough to drive significant lapse rates and core convection. I still didn't expect a major. But I'm not surprised. Ophelia did as much even with cooler heat content but had an even shallower tropopause / cooler dam aloft. Just gotta have the right atmospheric setup at higher latitudes late in the season. That being said, Epsilon has probably peaked. Arguably the prettiest hurricane of the season. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 102kts surface dropsonde. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 New pass still at 953 mb. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 This is that beautiful fish storm 2020 had been lacking. Awesome to watch this system evolve and take advantage of what it was given 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 4 hours ago, Windspeed said: Pretty amazing little hurricane. A shallow tropopause with cold pool aloft under minimal shear. Core of hurricane positioned perfectly under the small anticyclone, which is of course positioned perfectly in the middle of a large-scale upper trough. Marginal 26-27°C SSTs is more than enough to drive significant lapse rates and core convection. I still didn't expect a major. But I'm not surprised. Ophelia did as much even with cooler heat content but had an even shallower tropopause / cooler dam aloft. Just gotta have the right atmospheric setup at higher latitudes late in the season. That being said, Epsilon has probably peaked. Arguably the prettiest hurricane of the season. Didn't think this season had an eye like that in it, haha (kinda funny how it's been so active yet sloppy in shape overall) Very nice! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 9 hours ago, jpeters3 said: Can we talk about the ET transition predicted by the GFS? GFS consistently showing an extratropical low near Iceland with a central pressure < 930 mb... This will be a named storm in Europe IMO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 Epsilon weakened a lot last night, but has made a very quick comeback the last 3 hrs. Eye is back out and T numbers are back up to 4.6. The west side of the storm looks healthy again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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