wdrag Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 The 27th Atlantic Basin Tropical event of the season is underway. Impact to the coastal eastern USA is expected to be confined mostly to swells, with heavy seas in the offshore waters developing this week - slowly easing in Epsilon's modeled northeast recurvature and departure this weekend. Max sustained winds are modeled to eventually be near 80 knots for a time, with seas possibly exceeding 30 feet north and east of the center by Friday or Saturday the 23rd-24th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Epsilon Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 AM AST Tue Oct 20 2020 ...EPSILON DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.6N 54.7W ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warning in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Epsilon. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 54.7 West. Epsilon is moving toward the east-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the north and northwest is expected later today, with a general northwestward motion expected through Thursday. On the forecast track, Epsilon is forecast to approach Bermuda on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength by Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are expected to affect Bermuda for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 AM AST Tue Oct 20 2020 Epsilon continues to have a non-standard appearance in satellite imagery this morning. While an area of convection is near and over the center, the center is also near the western end of a baroclinic zone, and that is giving the storm the look of a occluded extratropical low. In addition, water vapor and air mass imagery indicate that an upper-level trough is close to the system in the southwestern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates have not changed significantly since the last advisory, so the initial intensity is unchanged at 40 kt. Epsilon remains a large cyclone with gale-force or tropical-storm-force winds extending outward more than 250 nmi in the northern semicircle. The center has drifted eastward since the last advisory, with the initial motion a somewhat uncertain 075/3. A northward to northwestward motion is expected to begin shortly as Epsilon becomes embedded in a large mid-level low over the central Atlantic. Later today, a mid-level ridge is forecast to build to the north and east of the cyclone, forcing Epsilon generally toward the northwest through about 72 h. After that time, a deep-layer trough and associated frontal system moving eastward into the western Atlantic should cause the cyclone to recurve to the northeast at an increasing forward speed. The guidance is in good agreement with the scenario, and the new forecast track, which has only minor adjustments from the previous track, lies near the various consensus models. On the forecast track, Epsilon should make its closest approach to Bermuda on Friday. There are several conflicting factors in the intensity forecast. First, while the cyclone is expected to move over relatively warm sea surface temperatures, the oceanic heat content along the forecast track drops to low levels after 36 h. Second, while the overall shear is forecast to be light to moderate through the forecast period, Epsilon is interacting with the aforementioned upper-level trough, and the global models suggest it will interact with another trough around the 72 h point. These troughs should provide upper-level divergence to aid strengthening, but also may feed cool and dry air into the cyclone, which would be a negative factor. The intensity guidance continues to show gradual strengthening despite the negative factors, with the global models showing fairy low central pressures during the 72-120 h period. Based on this, the intensity forecast continues to call for Epsilon to become a hurricane, and the new forecast has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast. Extratropical transition will likely be underway by 120 h, but likely will not finish until after the end of the forecast period. Key Message: 1. Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it approaches Bermuda late this week. While it is too soon to determine the exact details of Epsilon's track and intensity near the island, there is a risk of direct impacts from wind, rainfall, and storm surge on Bermuda, and interests there should closely monitor the progress of Epsilon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 25.6N 54.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 26.6N 55.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 27.8N 57.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 28.5N 59.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 29.4N 60.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 22/1800Z 30.6N 60.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 31.6N 61.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 33.5N 62.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 25/0600Z 38.0N 58.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 Looks to be intensifying. Also, FWIW, though SSTs are only running between 27 and 28°C in that region of the Atlantic, upper tropospheric temps are cooler now that we're in mid-to-late October. Epsilon is under an PV- anticyclone that developed out of the old ULL that has cold air aloft. This is driving lapse rates. Should be plenty of fuel and instability for Epsilon to reach hurricane intensity in the coming days. Might overperform and reach Cat 2. Looks like the beginnings of an eyewall developing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 Epsilon is going to outpace its intensity forecast in short order. Nice CBs occurring around the core with plenty of lightning. Think this is a hurricane this evening and a Cat 2 seems likely now. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 20, 2020 Author Share Posted October 20, 2020 Good points on lapse rates-fuel. UKMET has been drilling this to the 940s for many cycles. That's one reason for the post. Going to be an impressive marine event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 992mb 55kt? It's got a warm core with a cold core wrapped around it and an eye. I'd have guessed it's somewhere near 980mb and 75kt. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 I’m thinking this will be an 85-95 kt storm. Dry air intrusion going to be biggest limiting factor until it reaches cooler water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 40 minutes ago, Amped said: 992mb 55kt? It's got a warm core with a cold core wrapped around it and an eye. I'd have guessed it's somewhere near 980mb and 75kt. It’s improved significantly from the advisory time. This is definitely a hurricane now, probably close to your estimate though that would be a massive pressure fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 Lol. If this is what 2020 is like imagine a couple decades from now. Looking forward to Major Hurricane Upsilon’s landfall in the NeoAzores autonomous zone on Trumptember 12th, 2039. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 27 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: Lol. If this is what 2020 is like imagine a couple decades from now. Looking forward to Major Hurricane Upsilon’s landfall in the NeoAzores autonomous zone on Trumptember 12th, 2039. Considering how many of the islands are sinking and the continued rise in sea level, a couple of decades from now, Trumptembers Upsilon may have much less land to fall on. As always.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Hurricane at 11 BULLETIN Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020 ...EPSILON STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.5N 56.8W ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Eye is almost better defined than Delta's ever was! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020 The tropical cyclone has continued to become better organized on satellite images this evening, with the Central Dense Overcast becoming increasingly symmetric. Also the eye, which was intermittently apparent earlier in the evening, has become better defined. Epsilon is being upgraded to a hurricane, consistent with a Dvorak intensity estimate from SAB. This is the tenth hurricane of the season. Epsilon is moving northwestward, or around 310/11 kt, but beginning to turn more toward a west-northwestward heading. The hurricane is expected to move generally west-northwestward on Wednesday in response to a mid-level high pressure system to its north and northwest. In a couple of days, the high is forecast to shift eastward and this should cause Epsilon to turn toward the north-northwest and pass to the east of Bermuda, with the center coming closest to the island in around 48 hours. In 3 to 4 days, the hurricane should turn northward and move through a break in the subtropical ridge. By the end of the forecast period, the system should accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward as it begins to move into the higher-latitude westerlies. The official forecast track is very close to both the previous NHC prediction and the corrected multi-model dynamical consensus. Delta is expected to strengthen some more as it moves over marginally warm waters and within an environment of moderate vertical shear during the next day or so. In 36 to 48 hours, the oceanic heat content below the cyclone is expected to become very low which should limit further intensification. The official intensity forecast is a little above the latest model consensus. By day 5, the global models show the cyclone interacting and merging with a frontal zone so the system will likely be extratropical by that time. Key Message: 1. Epsilon is forecast to remain at hurricane strength by the time it makes its closest approach to Bermuda late Thursday. While it is too soon to determine the exact details of Epsilon's track and intensity near the island, tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning Thursday with dangerous surf conditions also likely. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 28.5N 56.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 29.2N 58.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 29.9N 59.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 31.0N 60.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 32.2N 61.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 23/1200Z 33.5N 61.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 34.6N 62.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 38.4N 58.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 26/0000Z 44.0N 45.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 My guess is that the NHC is probably underestimating the intensity currently. Satellite presentation and rather robust circulation suggest true intensity may be more like 80 to possibly 90kts. These rather warm topped/low tropopause storms seem to be prone to being underestimated in intensity like Lee and Ophelia 2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 2am adv identical to the 11pm one in pressure and wind BULLETIN Hurricane Epsilon Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 200 AM AST Wed Oct 21 2020 ...EPSILON MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 57.6W ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 21, 2020 Author Share Posted October 21, 2020 A pretty good storm going now and won't be surprised at further intensification beyond 80KT. Still has surface SST's of 26C enroute at times through the 24th. Following NHC, RAL, AM WX contributions, as well as GEFS probabilistic guidance and the NWW3 operational guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 One of the prettiest storms of the season. Going to be another wave producer for the East coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 21, 2020 Author Share Posted October 21, 2020 Already 30+ foot seas north and east of center and by Friday. I expect this to increase (possibly 40 foot significant wave height) with EC gradient generated max WH at least 45 ft near the center and this could be conservative. Here's a picture of OPC analyzed wave heights at 8AM this morning based on ship/buoy reports etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 The best looking eye of the 2020 season is the 27th tropical cyclone on October 21 in the northern Atlantic. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 11 minutes ago, cptcatz said: The best looking eye of the 2020 season is the 27th tropical cyclone on October 21 in the northern Atlantic. Sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A777 Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 About the prettiest Cat 1 you’ll ever see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, Morris said: So looks like all models the NHC and the ADT were way under on the intensity. Almost a Cat 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Going to need some post season reanalysis on this. It was probably at least 10mb deeper than analyzed at 18z yesterday. However ADT numbers have not change much since 2am. Most of the Deepening probably occurred yesterday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 NHC issues a special 2pm advisory 958mb 110mph Florence November 1994 is the closes analog. It didn't deepen as fast but reached a similar intensity and took a similar track. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Florence_(1994) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 The new recon pass dropsonde suggests either 954 or 956 mb, so it continues to drop. This has been an amazing process to watch.... upper low -> warm core -> nearly major hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 106kt dropsonde at the surface in the N eyewall. Just wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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