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November Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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Yeah, I don’t know if that SST pattern is unprecedented, but it’s pretty strange and unusual at least. I know DT was keying on that to think eastern US snowfall could be AN. 
 

Saw the CFS winter MJO forecast on Twitter this morning and it shows the MJO waves staying more in the Indian Ocean, which would be mostly favorable for us (phase 1-2). Maritime continent is the torch zone for us. 

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D7-9 EPS evolution isn’t one I’d ever turn my nose up at for a week+ prog. Cold air slides in ahead of the storm, but it’s close. Air mass ahead of that is hot garbage so need that northern stream low to get the cold air in. 
 

This was a big shift in the euro and EPS from yesterday which had a GGEM-like solution.

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Surely we can expect an operational run of the model to get that right 2 weeks out too.

Good point. I’m not sure how the op GFS or any model does with closed lows.  Both the GFS and Euro had a closed low for the longest time for T-day in many locations in the east...until it didn’t just about 4 days ago.  At least we are tracking something. 

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11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It's super impressive to look at h5 but for all its gyrations, it really never does much at the surface lol.

I know, it was pretty boring when it came to actual precip depiction.  To Bristow’s point, fun to at least ‘track’ something even if its a more conducive pattern that may not translate into anything outside the mountains.

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2 hours ago, CAPE said:

It's super impressive to look at h5 but for all its gyrations, it really never does much at the surface lol.

No way for it to tap the gulf. The one thing I like seeing is all of the blocking modelled up north. Hopefully that comes true. Blocking that severe is a pretty stable pattern. Although as modelled I would be worried about suppression. But I am always worried about something when it comes to snow around here. 

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