WxUSAF Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 Happy hour delivers and the runs not over yet! Anafrontal deals usually work well for us, especially at the beginning of December! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 22, 2020 Share Posted November 22, 2020 WB 18Z GEFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 22, 2020 Share Posted November 22, 2020 p10 is just silly. Or is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 22, 2020 Share Posted November 22, 2020 Second wave after main front is the only way I know we could score in anafrontal stuff. Not that I put any stock in anything at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 22, 2020 Share Posted November 22, 2020 When Anthony is interested you can't help but to be more hopeful. At least a December torch seems unlikely at this point, well at least until the 22 nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2020 Share Posted November 22, 2020 As nice as these advertised h5 looks are for early Dec, there would likely only be a seasonal airmass to work with for any potential storm. Maybe we can get one of those anomalous dynamical systems that can generate its own cold air lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22, 2020 Share Posted November 22, 2020 1 hour ago, CAPE said: As nice as these advertised h5 looks are for early Dec, there would likely only be a seasonal airmass to work with for any potential storm. Maybe we can get one of those anomalous dynamical systems that can generate its own cold air lol. Seasonal air in early December can work, but we have little margin for error. Need a good track, overnight helps, etc. If the PNA couples into the EPO domain, as the 18z gefs showed yesterday, we’d get some cold air moving south. Just takes time to flush the PAC puke out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2020 Share Posted November 22, 2020 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Seasonal air in early December can work, but we have little margin for error. Need a good track, overnight helps, etc. If the PNA couples into the EPO domain, as the 18z gefs showed yesterday, we’d get some cold air moving south. Just takes time to flush the PAC puke out. Yeah I have been watching the EPO region carefully. Latest runs are trying to get some ridging up that way, but that trough is very persistent in the WPO/EPO overlap region. There are signs it may weaken/retro a bit going forward. Something to keep an eye on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22, 2020 Share Posted November 22, 2020 Euro and GGEM both have major cold outbreaks D8-10. Sub freezing into FL with temps near 0 in the Midwest. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted November 22, 2020 Share Posted November 22, 2020 Need a -EPO hopefully it comes soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2020 Share Posted November 22, 2020 27 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro and GGEM both have major cold outbreaks D8-10. Sub freezing into FL with temps near 0 in the Midwest. That trailing piece of energy digging down towards TX would be pretty interesting as depicted, with heights building up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22, 2020 Share Posted November 22, 2020 Suppression risk? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 22, 2020 Share Posted November 22, 2020 That GOA trough has a lot of staying power as depicted on the GEFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 A few things set in motion during the next week or so...... impact early to mid December for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 Mongolian High Ptessure and not wasted in early November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 Is it prime time yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 13 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Euro and GGEM both have major cold outbreaks D8-10. Sub freezing into FL with temps near 0 in the Midwest. 00z GGEM still has it.... highs 25-35 across the region Dec 1-2 after being in the 55-60 range on Nov 30 Looks like 00z EURO does too based off 850mb maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 Am I suffering from "missed snowitis"... or does Day 10 on the EURO tonight look... interesting for us if it went out just a lil farther? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 I haven’t looked at it yet myself, but @tombo82685 says overnight EPS was best yet for early December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 15 hours ago, nj2va said: That GOA trough has a lot of staying power as depicted on the GEFS. Yeah that is going to limit the potential early Dec cold air intrusion. The h5 pattern as depicted is pretty decent, and has an interesting look wrt to storm possibilities, but it would be a lot more interesting to me if it was a month or so later. If I had a place out in Deep Creek or Canaan I would be way into the potential for this period though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 We need to find a way to suck the cold air from the GOA trough if it doesn't want to move and place it over the Mid-Atlantic. This should do the trick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 23, 2020 Author Share Posted November 23, 2020 25 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Start to unpack the snow blower ...just don't gas it up quite yet Eps I don’t know sh*t from apple butter but that looks very appealing to me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I haven’t looked at it yet myself, but @tombo82685 says overnight EPS was best yet for early December. So what you’re saying here is...there’s a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I don’t know sh*t from apple butter but that looks very appealing to me. Apple butter tastes wayyyyy better. 5 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 Looking out towards mid Dec on the 0z Sunday extended GEFS, the AK trough looks to weaken and retrograde enough that the EPO is probably at least neutral. Decent HL look in the AO/NAO domains as well. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Apple butter tastes wayyyyy better. Agree...apple butter is awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: I haven’t looked at it yet myself, but @tombo82685 says overnight EPS was best yet for early December. Well, we also have to remember the past 4 weeks they have looked awful, so saying the best they have looked in weeks is kind of a catch 22. So instead of a 0% chance we maybe have a 10-20% of getting something. Still a lot of pac puke to start the 10-15 day thats getting blocked in. Later on in the period though Canada starts to cool off. Would like to see the ridge out west go poleward more, that would really help in getting eastern Canada colder. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: I haven’t looked at it yet myself, but @tombo82685 says overnight EPS was best yet for early December. I would still like to get that trough near AK just a little further west. But it’s a pretty good look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 4 hours ago, stormtracker said: Apple butter tastes wayyyyy better. I'm scared to ask how you know what s**t tastes like. I love the new avatar. Welcome back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, ravensrule said: I'm scared to ask how you know what s**t tastes like. I love the new avatar. Welcome back. Shit eating grin is an odd expression. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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