Ji Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 Gefs shows a pna in long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 7 hours ago, Ji said: Gefs shows a pna in long range All the globals seem to suggesting a +PNA over the past few runs. Latest extended GEFS brings us this look by mid December. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 9 hours ago, leo2000 said: Very Interesting Judah Cohen People actually still listen to that fraud lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 44 minutes ago, snowman19 said: People actually still listen to that fraud lol He is not so much a fraud as he is a one-trick pony hack. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 2 hours ago, CAPE said: All the globals seem to suggesting a +PNA over the past few runs. Latest extended GEFS brings us this look by mid December. Mentioned the Pac wave train yesterday, and here you have the transition to a +PNA . Today, as you mentioned, more evidence of a + PNA , granted over 600 hours away, but plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 @CAPE speculating that even if we get a +PNA what about the cold air source? If the EPS is correct Canada is very, very warm. Remarkable, and a sad situation for cold and snow lovers in the East. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 20 minutes ago, frd said: @CAPE speculating that even if we get a +PNA what about the cold air source? If the EPS is correct Canada is very, very warm. Remarkable, and a sad situation for cold and snow lovers in the East. favorable location It probably wouldn't do us much good if it were transient... and the persistent toughing near AK has largely cut off polar air penetration into our source region. I don't expect to see persistence with a stable W US ridge in a favorable position anytime soon. What would really help is if the EPO flipped- that would provide a mechanism to get cold air back into western/central Canada pretty quickly. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 A product of a +PNA after a several weeks long stint of any cold source being choked off....need some EPO help. Both the GEFS and CFS show a weakening of the SPV around the 20th of Dec. Granted, this predicted weakening is just more of comedown off its high and more toward the ERA5 mean but a weakening nonetheless. The idea of a developing PNA and then more importantly -EPO would make sense in order to start throwing some jabs at the PV. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: Both the GEFS and CFS show a weakening of the SPV around the 20th of Dec. Granted, this predicted weakening is just more of comedown off its high and more toward the ERA5 mean but a weakening nonetheless. This does echo the thoughts of Isotherm's seasonal. We wait and watch. At the least the +PNA may help us from torching if indeed it develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: he persistent toughing near AK has largely cut off polar air penetration into our source region. I don't expect to see persistence with a stable W US ridge in a favorable position anytime soon. Recalling last winter where robust West Coast ridging was forecasted a few times, only to breakdown or never develop, due to the compressed and rapid jet stream movement, culprits already discussed last year. But, if we can get a great Pac pattern in prime climo that lasts a week or more, maybe we can score. Watching the seasonal progression of shorter wave lenghts should be interesting as well later in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 Let's re-visit this forecast in early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 Expect the unexpected .............. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 Return of December 5? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 Return of December 5? I was thinking return of the 2018 December 9th snowstorm... though that might upset some people. 2 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: I was thinking return of the 2018 December 9th snowstorm... though that might upset some people. Fighting words there.......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: What a ruthless post. I like it. Southerners unite! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 Weird to say this, but the GEFS advertised pattern in early December is actually pretty darn good. Verbatim not much cold air, but if that 500mb pattern occurred, it would end up colder I’d wager. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Weird to say this, but the GEFS advertised pattern in early December is actually pretty darn good. Verbatim not much cold air, but if that 500mb pattern occurred, it would end up colder I’d wager. Looks wet/active. Cold would be good. The fact that it isn't advertising cold in the LR is fine with me since it's usually wrong when it does! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Weird to say this, but the GEFS advertised pattern in early December is actually pretty darn good. Verbatim not much cold air, but if that 500mb pattern occurred, it would end up colder I’d wager. Sign me up for this no doubt. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 Same with WB 6Z GFS/ GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 Just move that system to December 5 and it will happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 Some continuing signs this morning that we might be able to achieve a more blocked regime later in the month, and especially in early December. Also, some indications regarding higher pressures building into and near Greenland early to mid December. We all know the odds and the accuracy within the NAO domain, but well worth keeping tabs as we get closer to the holidays. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 Nice to see the ops showing a shuffle in the LR....certainly looking more likely we see a nice west coast ridge. Could go poof in the next few runs like we have seen so many times but if its gonna happen the ops should be picking up on it. 12z gfs continues this idea...just a different interpretation each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 1 hour ago, poolz1 said: Nice to see the ops showing a shuffle in the LR....certainly looking more likely we see a nice west coast ridge. Could go poof in the next few runs like we have seen so many times but if its gonna happen the ops should be picking up on it. 12z gfs continues this idea...just a different interpretation each run. 12z GEFS looks pretty darn good at the end of the run today. GEPS isn't bad either. Probably average to slightly below average temps. Ofc it's just on paper at this point. We shall see. eta- Latest GEFS extended is a bit more ambiguous with the pattern around mid Dec compared to previous runs. Not bad but never gets the +heights into the NAO region. Given how the last couple GEFS runs have looked, it will be interesting to see the next extended run. For those who don't know, the extended(beyond hr 384) is a feature of the 0z runs, but the extended hours have a 24 hour delay, at least on TT. So the run I am referencing here is the 0z Friday edition. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 29 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: +heights in the NAO region would be great but my eyes are on the PAC and to a slightly lesser extent the AO. We don’t have a shot without a serviceable Pacific pattern IMO. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 53 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: +heights in the NAO region would be great but my eyes are on the PAC and to a slightly lesser extent the AO. We don’t have a shot without a serviceable Pacific pattern IMO. Agreed but we must always chase the unicorn, right? EPO domain is going to be important to our chances for legit cold air outbreaks, imo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: This look has been moving up in time. I made a post a couple days ago when the extended GEFS looked like this around mid Dec. I guess the problem is it might be transient and happen too early lol. Still not a lot of cold air initially available either way. To take advantage, this needs to verify, and have some persistence, in order to reload cold in our nearby source region.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 1 hour ago, LP08 said: EPS looks quite similar at that time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: EPS looks quite similar at that time. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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