frd Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 59 minutes ago, CAPE said: Extended GEFS still "evolves" the pattern to where +heights are building in the NAO domain a few days later, but it wouldn't do much good with that AK trough sitting there pumping the PAC puke and cutting off the supply of cold air. Hopefully we see a bit of a reshuffle out west by mid-month. Yep, will be interesting to watch the progression. Meanwhile, MJVentrice @MJVentrice A strong Stratospheric Polar Vortex is supporting -80C temperatures at 10mb, which is slightly earlier than normal to see these cold of temperatures. 7:34 AM · Nov 18, 2020·Twitter Web App Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 ^Smoke and/or low solar will knock it back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: ^Smoke and/or low solar will knock it back. Impressive + PMM Pretty classic +PMM Eric Webb @webberweather Despite being in a La Nina w/ subseasonal forcing solidly over the Indian Ocean, the subtropical jet will actually be quite active in late Nov thanks to a positive Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) event buttressing moist convection in the tropical off-equatorial central Pacific. 4:11 AM · Nov 18, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 End of month/early December cold shot is back on the models today. Gfs is most impressive while the other guidance is more tepid, but still shows something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: End of month/early December cold shot is back on the models today. Gfs is most impressive while the other guidance is more tepid, but still shows something. Simon's GEFS 35 day regime forecast does show some indications of a shallow regime change coinciding with the early part of December. In my opinion a temporary cold period such as the one currently might be in the cards. AO drops in the days ahead , possibly towards neutral, as the SPV remains strong well above the ERA5 mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 18z gfs happy hour back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 11 minutes ago, Ji said: 18z gfs happy hour back? Ha. Still screws us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 7 minutes ago, Ji said: 18z gfs happy hour back? Random op run silliness? Sure! Notice how it only snows well south of here into central/southern VA, and then rains all the way to the UP of Michigan. lol. Thats realistic! Good ol GFS at D10+.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 18Z GEFS sees a trough in the East next weekend. Few members show snow but no snow maps...yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 Another very short lived cold shot. Better than wall to wall ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 Now that’s a blue wall. Hard to believe a trough could sneak under that. But we’ll take it assuming it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 36 minutes ago, Weather Will said: 18Z GEFS sees a trough in the East next weekend. Few members show snow but no snow maps...yet. All those blues up top in all the wrong places. Our normal Winter Default lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 NAO is gone on LR models. Man, that looks horrible. It just gets worse and worse. Usually in La Nina it carries over to January then Feb is probably too late already, because it's going to be an early Spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 Random op run silliness? Sure! Notice how it only snows well south of here into central/southern VA, and then rains all the way to the UP of Michigan. lol. Thats realistic! Good ol GFS at D10+..Lol it was such a great start...storm under a Banana high. Amazing how it fell apart as it approached dc lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 19, 2020 Author Share Posted November 19, 2020 14 minutes ago, Ji said: 2 hours ago, CAPE said: Random op run silliness? Sure! Notice how it only snows well south of here into central/southern VA, and then rains all the way to the UP of Michigan. lol. Thats realistic! Good ol GFS at D10+.. Lol it was such a great start...storm under a Banana high. Amazing how it fell apart as it approached dc lol What could have been lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck! said: NAO is gone on LR models. Man, that looks horrible. It just gets worse and worse. Usually in La Nina it carries over to January then Feb is probably too late already, because it's going to be an early Spring. Of course you are just speculating. You like the rest of us have no idea what will happen. The next run could be completely different. Your post is basically saying winter is over week before Thanksgiving. Not buying that logic. You are counting your money while sitting at the table. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 Nah, we are tightly in. I imagine currencies in other coutnries have different values in some different scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 8 hours ago, Chris78 said: All those blues up top in all the wrong places. Our normal Winter Default lol. Unfortunately that is the default, period. The coldest air and lowest heights naturally reside in the high latitudes. It takes some work(equatorial heat transport) to disrupt that and produce anomalously positive heights up there with persistence, and with the changing climate, it seems the mechanisms required make that happen don't align as often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 Overnight models back to warmer for late month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 1 hour ago, frd said: Overnight models back to warmer for late month. The 6z GEFS wants to reshuffle the pattern a bit for early Dec- tries to establish a +PNA, with lower heights near the Aleutians. 0z GEPS says NO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 27 minutes ago, CAPE said: The 6z GEFS wants to reshuffle the pattern a bit for early Dec- tries to establish a +PNA, with lower heights near the Aleutians. 0z GEPS says NO. You can hibernate for the next 10 to 15 days because things look super boring in regards to the weather. However, some interesting developments with regards to SHPV and the NHPV. Currently an extremely cold Southern Hemispheric PV , while the Northern PV is ( quoted by Simon here ) " 100 hPa eddy heat flux averaged over the last 45 days is approaching the 10th %ile in the Arctic " As mentioned yesterday the fires in Aussie and the Western US fires may be responsible here to a degree, as is the QBO. HM mentioned the warmth between the two PVs and the role of aerosols and spoke about a volcanic winter similarity I believe. In my opinion we are witnessing the effects of the change last year with the behavior of the QBO along with the QBO's induced thermal winds manifested upon the aerosol released event, whether acting in unison or separably. Here are a couple great threads that talk about this. One from Dr. Amy Butler and the other from Simon Lee. Each thread is worth clicking on and scrolling through. And for the time being, nothing to be encouraged about. We may be entering as well something called a polar vortex intensification (VI) events https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2005JD006302 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 Pacific wave training getting under way soon. If you freeze the animation posted by Anthony you will see the Western ridge amp up and the East Coast trough response near day 9 to 10. I would cold expect a cold period lasting a day or two near the very end of the month. Euro not as thrilled so far. Afternoon run coming up shortly. Keep in mind the same trends as last Fall and winter may once again prevail this upcoming cold season which are the inland runner and Midwest/ GL cutter outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 26 minutes ago, frd said: Pacific wave training getting under way soon. If you freeze the animation posted by Anthony you will see the Western ridge amp up and the East Coast trough response near day 9 to 10. I would cold expect a cold period lasting a day or two near the very end of the month. Euro not as thrilled so far. Afternoon run coming up shortly. Keep in mind the same trends as last Fall and winter may once again prevail this upcoming cold season which are the inland runner and Midwest/ GL cutter outcomes. That looks like a reshuffle of the pattern to me as you can see it in 6z GEFS as well at the beginning of December. Look's like it maybe more sustained then just a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 19, 2020 Author Share Posted November 19, 2020 Just now, leo2000 said: We don’t post with a positive tilt here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 This strong phase 2 wave helps that short cool-ish period near the start of December. If it goes into the COD after phase 2 without propagating into phase 3-4, that would help keep things less torchy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 So how bad are the new Euro weeklies actually? All I see on twitter is crying about how God awful they are, but no graphics. Some folks like to exaggerate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 56 minutes ago, snowman19 said: So how bad are the new Euro weeklies actually? All I see on twitter is crying about how God awful they are, but no graphics. Some folks like to exaggerate When I see this in the SNE thread 59 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Hopefully the weeklies are as accurate as last winter. Then I immediately know they sucked royally for us without having to go look at them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: So how bad are the new Euro weeklies actually? All I see on twitter is crying about how God awful they are, but no graphics. Some folks like to exaggerate Its sort of a 01-02/11-12 hybrid pattern. Its not necessarily December 2015 or February 2018 with a roided SER. Its just a constant weak to moderate AK vortex and although the east is trofy at times there is no decent source of cold air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 19, 2020 Share Posted November 19, 2020 Everyone needs to just enjoy extended fall. Hopefully we can go abnormally dry. My WAG is we see a period of actual winter from roughly mid Jan to mid Feb, courtesy of a -EPO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 Very Interesting Judah Cohen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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