psuhoffman Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 3 hours ago, CAPE said: 0z GFS op for Mid November. I guess it was a 3-run epic -NAO mirage lol. GEFS still has some +Heights up top but digs a trough out west the last couple runs. The GEFS look could work later in winter. November and December we tend to need some Pac cooperation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 As mentioned a couple days ago we may not be done after Eta as the EPS indicates more activity. Meanwhile the robust WAR becomes an even bigger player later this week, approaching 588 DM. , simply incredible ! On the speculation side, maybe an anomalous weather event later in November in the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 almost a carbon copy of the dominant patter from last year. Maybe we can get it out of the way early this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 30 minutes ago, LP08 said: almost a carbon copy of the dominant patter from last year. Maybe we can get it out of the way early this year. Does that include sacrificing December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 13 minutes ago, CAPE said: Does that include sacrificing December? I hope your mower is still gassed up. I envision 3 more grass cuttings. Wondering if simply by chaos we re shuffle the playbook temporarily to a colder pattern in early December. Some things do look to change by mid November and rolling forward could lead to a colder outcome in the East. We all know there is a lot going against us, but hopefully the next 30 days provides more insight to the weather near the holidays and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 26 minutes ago, CAPE said: Does that include sacrificing December? I'm sure the Euro Weeklies will save us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 11 minutes ago, frd said: I hope your mower is still gassed up. I envision 3 more grass cuttings. Wondering if simply by chaos we re shuffle the playbook temporarily to a colder pattern in early December. Some things do look to change by mid November and rolling forward could lead to a colder outcome in the East. We all know there is a lot going against us, but hopefully the next 30 days provides more insight to the weather near the holidays and beyond. I mow/mulch until early December, when all the leaves are finally down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 20 minutes ago, frd said: Wondering if simply by chaos we re shuffle the playbook temporarily to a colder pattern in early December. Some things do look to change by mid November and rolling forward could lead to a colder outcome in the East. We all know there is a lot going against us, but hopefully the next 30 days provides more insight to the weather near the holidays and beyond. Latest GEFS runs are not as enthused with building heights up top around/beyond mid month. We have seen this perpetual kick the can routine many times when it comes to advertising HL +height anomalies in the LR. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 43 minutes ago, CAPE said: Latest GEFS runs are not as enthused with building heights up top around/beyond mid month. We have seen this perpetual kick the can routine many times when it comes to advertising HL +height anomalies in the LR. Well enjoy the outdoors. Better to be outside then in. I will welcome any winter cold during the next 5 months. I can't even recall the last 6 I ch or greater snowfall here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 Looking beyond our mild/warm and boring stretch of weather, mid next week looks to become active with possible tropical connection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 36 minutes ago, CAPE said: Looking beyond our mild/warm and boring stretch of weather, mid next week looks to become active with possible tropical connection. Oh joy. Some mud and humidity to add to the heat. I can't stand humidity this time of year. Everything stays damp all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 2 hours ago, CAPE said: Looking beyond our mild/warm and boring stretch of weather, mid next week looks to become active with possible tropical connection. WPC is gradually increasing precip amounts in Days 6 and 7 as you mention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 Some indications that the spv and the tpv may start to couple later in the month. From Matt Hugo < Some evidence now as well for +ve uWind anoms to make the link between the strat and trop looking ahead further into Nov, especially between 70-90N. Note how the yellow and orange colours descend from 100hPa down to surface. Another potential sign that blocking is less likely... > 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 6, 2020 Share Posted November 6, 2020 Mid and late next week still looks potentially active/juicy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 6, 2020 Share Posted November 6, 2020 18 minutes ago, CAPE said: Mid and late next week still looks potentially active/juicy. Grass cutting to Jan this year. Soil moisture crazy high, fog every morning, dew points backing up eventually. Thinking ahead to what becomes of the SSTs in the Western Atlantic. They may never really decline that much if this is a very warm winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 6, 2020 Share Posted November 6, 2020 From Mount Holly on the potential for next week- A deep upper trough in place across the southwestern CONUS is forecast to eject northeastward late Monday into Tuesday while TC Eta churns across south Florida or the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The ejecting trough will send a surge of deep tropical moisture associated with Eta poleward by the middle of the week. Eta itself is forecast to remain over the Gulf of Mexico and will presumably dissipate there via strong wind shear by the middle to end of the week. The dynamics and forcing from the trough will arrive across our area into Wednesday as the tropical moisture arrives and, long story short, it looks quite wet. Precipitable water values could surge well above 2", which would shatter November records at IAD and OKX. A first guess at rainfall amounts would be widespread values in the 1-2" range during the Wednesday time frame, however a lot can and will change with regard to the timing and placement of heaviest rain over the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 WB EURO weekly fantasy land through Dec. 21.... maybe the pattern gets better after the next couple of weeks... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 That’s basically climo, so doesn’t mean much 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 8, 2020 Author Share Posted November 8, 2020 57 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: That’s basically climo, so doesn’t mean much That’s what I said all of last year. The eps has what, like 50 members? So you get 5 showing a one foot snow, 5 showing an 8” snow and there’s 100” and a mean of 2”. Never mind the fact that 80% showed zilch. It’s a TFU product. That’s my new acronym for the winter TFU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 Some guys on phillywx have tracked the threshold on the EPS (let alone the weeklies) where a snowfall mean actually means it will snow. Minimum is usually 2-3”, but typically more like 4-5”. And that’s within 2 weeks, not 6. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 5 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Some guys on phillywx have tracked the threshold on the EPS (let alone the weeklies) where a snowfall mean actually means it will snow. Minimum is usually 2-3”, but typically more like 4-5”. And that’s within 2 weeks, not 6. Party pooper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 Maybe some small glimmers of hope on the ATL side as we get later in Nov but the Pac crap looks pretty darn stable. There does seem to be agreement with a fairly stable 50/50ish low in the LR. Cant imagine the 35 day GEFS have much use but when every member shows a very strong PV you have to think its on to something. CFSv2 shows much more spread but certainly leans in the GEFS direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 6 minutes ago, poolz1 said: a very strong PV you have to think its on to something. CFSv2 shows much more spread but certainly leans in the GEFS direction Good points. I have noticed over time the CFSv2 trends to the GEFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 The easterly phase of the QBO favors strat warming/weakening of the SPV, and currently it is in the westerly phase, and moving more positive. Unless the SPV couples down to the surface though(disaster), the focus really should be on the TPV, which is broader and more directly influences sensible weather. I still think our best bet for a period of cold air delivery into the east lies with blocking in the EPO domain, like the current CFS runs are suggesting for Jan. If it happens it probably won't last that long, but a 2-3 week period of a mini version of 2013-14 might be our best hope. I will expect a predominant +AO/NAO until I see otherwise in real time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 1 hour ago, frd said: Good points. I have noticed over time the CFSv2 trends to the GEFS. The Euro seasonal actually shows a -NAO in December but it’s ruined with a God awful PAC side at the same time....has a huge vortex over AK/++EPO. All the -NAO would do in that case is bring down junk PAC air. If the Euro is wrong about the PAC being that bad, then December would be the best shot at being the wintry month, it shows the next 3 months (Jan-Mar) after with just raging +NAO and +AO. There is some support for a -NAO in December, question will be how bad is the PAC at that point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 WB OZ EURO teleconnections seem to be trending well in the next two weeks if it holds... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 Just looking at h5 it really stays warm until Thanksgiving week where who knows after that. I bet I could have went early Dec at DCA for the first freeze and probably would still be too early. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 We all know they usually go negative in the last week of November / First week or two in December, then go positive again until March or April. Watch it happen again... hopefully not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 I looked at the extended GEFS h5 pattern at 18z. You couldn’t ask for more boring and flat look. North side of normal for temps. That takes us to Wed before Thanksgiving. I won’t need the heat or the AC if that holds. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: I looked at the extended GEFS h5 pattern at 18z. You couldn’t ask for more boring and flat look. North side of normal for temps. That takes us to Wed before Thanksgiving. I won’t need the heat or the AC if that holds. Meh. I saw a D10 -NAO start to show up....beautiful 50/50. But yea, the entire NH sucks other than that little straw grasping tidbit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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