BristowWx Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 Hey wait a minute that’s not a winter storm pattern. It’s almost last winters pattern. Just the date stamp has changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 14, 2020 Share Posted November 14, 2020 On 11/14/2020 at 9:14 PM, BristowWx said: Hey wait a minute that’s not a winter storm pattern. It’s almost last winters pattern. Just the date stamp has changed. Expand Yes, it's essentially the antithesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 WB 6Z GFS. Thanksgiving week storm is still there. Only one member of 6z GEFS supports a snowy solution but it is further SE than the operational shown. 0z EPS also just one member. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 That solution in Dec or Jan would be a better outcome I think. As I was watching the run this morning I thought it was interesting . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 On 11/15/2020 at 1:21 PM, BristowWx said: That solution in Dec or Jan would be a better outcome I think. As I was watching the run this morning I thought it was interesting . Expand Not out far enough yet, but the 12z is interesting too. edit: meh. 1046 high slips away. Good practice for winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 15, 2020 Share Posted November 15, 2020 Pacific is going to be -PNA all Winter, I wonder if that will create a window ~Nov25 - Dec 5(, in duality). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 Models are a yawnfest for the foreseeable future. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 yes it looks like the Zzzquil to last winter so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 Its Nov 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 That's 582dm on Nov 21. even with a ridge over northern AK.. yuck. what a horrible Winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 Its Nov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 On 11/16/2020 at 4:31 PM, WxWatcher007 said: It is November but this isn’t a good look when we’re talking about the upper level pattern. It’s decidedly bad. Which is a reversal from just a few days ago. Expand The same SST feedback issues that support a bad Pac are evident in the Atlantic. The Atlantic's huge rise in SST the last 3 years is the most meaningful and pronounced versus any other part of the globe to a large extent. The WAR is robust not only in the summer but even other seasons as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 On 11/16/2020 at 4:31 PM, WxWatcher007 said: It is November but this isn’t a good look when we’re talking about the upper level pattern. It’s decidedly bad. Which is a reversal from just a few days ago. Expand I see its bad..really bad looking at the 6z GEFS at h5... but we have time on our side for it to turn around or just change completely. I am taking an optimistic view this year to stay away from the reaper for as long as possible......... hold my reservation however....I'm using points and miles. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 On 11/16/2020 at 5:17 PM, WxWatcher007 said: I'm just being objective, no reaper bit here. I'm not as deeply knowledgable about winter as I am with tropical, but reading from some of the mets in the NE subforum there is a pretty strong correlation between an Alaskan vortex (low) in late November/December and a lack of blocking for met winter. You're right, we still have time to turn it around, but I don't like playing this close to the edge. Of course, last year we had a fantastic pattern to start met winter and it was erased in two weeks. Expand It worries me when we see stability in a bad pattern on the GEFS and EPS. Right now it looks pretty stable/bad at least here. Up in your area its certainly more forgiving and you have more margin for error....but here as you know it could mean a shutout for a lot of us. Plenty of time to worry about that later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 On 11/16/2020 at 5:46 PM, BristowWx said: It worries me when we see stability in a bad pattern on the GEFS and EPS. Right now it looks pretty stable/bad at least here. Up in your area its certainly more forgiving and you have more margin for error....but here as you know it could mean a shutout for a lot of us. Plenty of time to worry about that later. Expand Don’t worry...Long range OP will save us. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 On 11/16/2020 at 6:26 PM, LP08 said: Don’t worry...Long range OP will save us. Expand Our only chance of winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 For entertainment this winter, we can take a single 840 hour run of the GEFS, study it frame by frame, correct it’s biases, and get it as close as possible to what we think will happen... Maybe not the 840 because it smooths out so much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 On 11/16/2020 at 6:26 PM, LP08 said: Don’t worry...Long range OP will save us. Expand GFS having a hard time, ( but what is new ), honestly even the Euro last week was focusing on a -EPO cold air dump. That has changed now. EPS looks very warm for late November and early December. Afternoon BAMWx update : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 On 11/16/2020 at 8:52 PM, frd said: GFS having a hard time, ( but what is new ), honestly even the Euro last week was focusing on a -EPO cold air dump. That has changed now. EPS looks very warm for late November and early December. Afternoon BAMWx update : Expand Last winter too were a lot of -EPO head fakes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 On 11/16/2020 at 9:01 PM, LP08 said: Last winter too were a lot of -EPO head fakes. Expand There saying too that the winter after this winter which seems over is going to be another strong La Nina. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 On 11/16/2020 at 11:16 PM, leo2000 said: There saying too that the winter after this winter which seems over is going to be another strong La Nina. Expand Winter of 22-23 that’s our year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 On 11/16/2020 at 11:16 PM, leo2000 said: There saying too that the winter after this winter which seems over is going to be another strong La Nina. Expand More often when we go into a healthy Nina it lasts multiple years. 1998/99-2000/01, 2007/8-2008/9, 2010/11-2011/12, 2016/17-2018/19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 17, 2020 Author Share Posted November 17, 2020 I’d take 10-11 and 18-19 again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 On 11/17/2020 at 12:50 AM, psuhoffman said: More often when we go into a healthy Nina it lasts multiple years. 1998/99-2000/01, 2007/8-2008/9, 2010/11-2011/12, 2016/17-2018/19. Expand You've got to be kidding me...man I hope we can fluke something somehow this year. Or else we might be looking at a early-mid 70s-style snow drought, smh Life is too short to be waiting 2 additional years for frozen happiness to fall from the sky in a halfway decent manner again. Almost 5 years since 2016...last WSW to verify at BWI. At this rate that would be 7 years if we can't fluke something this year, smh I mean at least you don't have models doing good head fakes this time...not sure that makes it feel better though. And why the heck do ninas seem to happen more than ninos??? Seems like ya get like two niños a decade and 4 dang ninas! And the fact that the 2018-19 weak nino "didn't couple" (whatever random chaos caused that) yet the nina is healthier and has absolutely no problem? Figures...lol Again...here's hoping for a fluke! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 On 11/17/2020 at 12:50 AM, psuhoffman said: More often when we go into a healthy Nina it lasts multiple years. 1998/99-2000/01, 2007/8-2008/9, 2010/11-2011/12, 2016/17-2018/19. Expand I would take a rerun of the last 2. 16-17 was meh, but pretty much median snowfall here, 17-18 was right at mean, which is about all anyone should ever hope for. Both had a chaseable big snowstorm/blizzard an hour away. eta- I shall clarify, since somehow @Eskimo Joe has gotten confused, Rerun of 16-17 and 17-18. Last time we had back to back Ninas. Winter of 18-19 was not a Nina. It was the Nino fail, aka puny Nino. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 On 11/17/2020 at 10:47 AM, CAPE said: I would take a rerun of the last 2. 16-17 was meh, but pretty much median snowfall here, 17-18 was right at mean, which is about all anyone should ever hope for. Both had a chaseable big snowstorm/blizzard an hour away. eta- I shall clarify, since somehow @Eskimo Joe has gotten confused, Rerun of 16-17 and 17-18. Last time we had back to back Ninas. Winter of 18-19 was not a Nina. It was the Nino fail, aka puny Nino. Expand That’s my fault I mis typed the years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 17, 2020 Share Posted November 17, 2020 On 11/17/2020 at 4:44 PM, psuhoffman said: That’s my fault I mis typed the years Expand I didn't notice it either when I bolded it and replied lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 Weeeeee!!! Time to get the Dec discussion thread started? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 On 11/18/2020 at 10:19 AM, CAPE said: Weeeeee!!! Time to get the Dec discussion thread started? Expand Matches the Euro weeklies. Comfortable outside decorating weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 18, 2020 Share Posted November 18, 2020 On 11/18/2020 at 10:52 AM, frd said: Matches the Euro weeklies. Comfortable outside decorating weather. Expand Extended GEFS still "evolves" the pattern to where +heights are building in the NAO domain a few days later, but it wouldn't do much good with that AK trough sitting there pumping the PAC puke and cutting off the supply of cold air. Hopefully we see a bit of a reshuffle out west by mid-month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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