WinterWxLuvr Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 The long range now takes us into November where winter events have been known to occur. Jus a glance at the GEFS suggests a near normal regime the first few days with the caveat that that’s a long way out. Hopefully the mods can pin this and soon we will have stuff to talk about. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 Might as well start with the trusty CFS for an h5 pattern overview. It tends to have a clue at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 GEFS for November 1. Pretty respectable EPAC. This look would start off the month seasonably chilly for the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 23 minutes ago, CAPE said: Might as well start with the trusty CFS for an h5 pattern overview. It tends to have a clue at this range. I’ll take what the CFS is offering for DJF though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: I’ll take what the CFS is offering for DJF though. Yeah i mentioned this in the other thread a couple days ago. Even though it lost the HL 'help' for the winter months, the Pacific is decent enough(specifically EPO) to probably give us some cold air delivery at times. Still plenty of time for that idea to fall apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted October 18, 2020 Share Posted October 18, 2020 WB EPS 12Z AO.... if it holds cold air arrives in early November as PNA goes toward neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 18, 2020 Author Share Posted October 18, 2020 This would be total misery. Temps in the 30’s and heavy rain, tropical in origin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 But what does it (or could it) mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: But what does it (or could it) mean? Look at the winter thread I covered it there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 Maybe the GFS wasn't so crazy with the phase potential. As mentioned a couple days ago, we may get a wave breaking event . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Wonder if we have not seen our last tropical rainfall connection. Something could down in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 WB 18Z GFS....fantasy land storm. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 Beautiful Pacific Puke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 2 hours ago, CAPE said: Beautiful Pacific Puke. Rather have it now than end of month 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 8 hours ago, Wentzadelphia said: Rather have it now than end of month Sure. Except "having it now" doesn't make it less likely we will have it at the end of the month, or the month after. Could be a winter preview. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 31 minutes ago, CAPE said: Sure. Except "having it now" doesn't make it less likely we will have it at the end of the month, or the month after. Could be a winter preview. Exactly, fast Pac flow has been setting records for past couple years in regards to super fast jet stream and breaking down + PNA attempts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 I’ve learned to embrace the warmth. Shorts in November are ok with me 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 12 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said: I’ve learned to embrace the warmth. Shorts in November are ok with me Fall is the best time of the year for doing stuff outdoors. Not even close for me. If the winter ends up being extended Fall- mostly in the 50s/60s- then so be it.. as long as we can get out of this wretched wet pattern. If it's gonna be mild, bring on some abnormally dry. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 17 minutes ago, CAPE said: Fall is the best time of the year for doing stuff outdoors. Not even close for me. If the winter ends up being extended Fall- mostly in the 50s/60s- then so be it.. as long as we can get out of this wretched wet pattern. If it's gonna be mild, bring on some abnormally dry. Hopefully the tropical connection is gone. That accounted for several huge events. The amount of rain has caused much frustration for farmers and allergy sufferers and those whom simply enjoy sunshine and outdoor activities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 1 minute ago, frd said: Hopefully the tropical connection is gone. That accounted for several huge events. The amount of rain has caused much frustration for farmers and allergy sufferers and those whom simply enjoy sunshine and outdoor activities. And those trying to establish new grass. Too much of a good thing. Last Fall I had to constantly run the sprinkler, because we couldn't buy a raindrop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 Suppression depression coming for mid month. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 19 hours ago, CAPE said: Beautiful Pacific Puke. That's not what it is. Look at the blocking over the PAC. That's AGW my man. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 2 hours ago, CAPE said: Suppression depression coming for mid month. 12z GEFS concurs. It might be real, but the real question is, will this look be possible a month later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 The high-bias in the forecast values reminds me of last winter. Could the bias be due to a poor coupling between the ocean model and the atmospheric model? On the positive side, the high-bias may allow some fantasy storms to come up the coast. On the negative side, reality will be much more mundane. Not that the AO forecast has much to say about it but I'm rooting for a warm November. My hunch is that the correlation between November temperatures and winter temperatures is negative - perhaps -0.02. I'll take any advantage I can get. A depressing truth; the "smartest" forecast might be to use the ensemble with the most positive AO value. Another depressing feature of the time series is that it goes negative about when the forecast skill goes to zero or at least to 0.16^2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 20 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: The high-bias in the forecast values reminds me of last winter. Could the bias be due to a poor coupling between the ocean model and the atmospheric model? On the positive side, the high-bias may allow some fantasy storms to come up the coast. On the negative side, reality will be much more mundane. Not that the AO forecast has much to say about it but I'm rooting for a warm November. My hunch is that the correlation between November temperatures and winter temperatures is negative - perhaps -0.02. I'll take any advantage I can get. A depressing truth; the "smartest" forecast might be to use the ensemble with the most positive AO value. Another depressing feature of the time series is that it goes negative about when the forecast skill goes to zero or at least to 0.16^2. Yeah we have seen this many times before in the LR, and it rarely materializes in real time. It gives us some hope for now though, until all our hopes and dreams are dashed by reality lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 I want my mid November cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 0z GFS op for Mid November. I guess it was a 3-run epic -NAO mirage lol. GEFS still has some +Heights up top but digs a trough out west the last couple runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 1 hour ago, CAPE said: 0z GFS op for Mid November. I guess it was a 3-run epic -NAO mirage lol. GEFS still has some +Heights up top but digs a trough out west the last couple runs. That’s fine though, wouldn’t wanna blow a -NAO in November. Let’s save it for January and February cause we know that’ll happen....right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 2 hours ago, CAPE said: 0z GFS op for Mid November. I guess it was a 3-run epic -NAO mirage lol. GEFS still has some +Heights up top but digs a trough out west the last couple runs. After this cold blast we're looking like multiple weeks to take care of any outdoor yard issues 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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