mississaugasnow Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Maybe a bit early for this, but I'm wondering what type of flooding potential this pattern is causing. With snow cover building up fast across most of the midwest and Great Lakes and lakes and rivers freezing we could be looking at a potentially pretty severe flood threat. Im thinking because its already February 8th and the pattern sticks around for another 10 days minimum, even just average in 10ish days is starting to get into the 40s for the southern part of the sub. Anyone have any idea how far south lakes and rivers are frozen? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 56 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: Maybe a bit early for this, but I'm wondering what type of flooding potential this pattern is causing. With snow cover building up fast across most of the midwest and Great Lakes and lakes and rivers freezing we could be looking at a potentially pretty severe flood threat. Im thinking because its already February 8th and the pattern sticks around for another 10 days minimum, even just average in 10ish days is starting to get into the 40s for the southern part of the sub. Anyone have any idea how far south lakes and rivers are frozen? Deep frost depth plus above average snowcover will be nasty once we get that first 40 degree Rainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 13 hours ago, nwohweather said: Man what a pattern for this region. Break out the snowmobiles & hockey skates, good shot that 20 degrees is not achieved in Toledo for the next week. You had a chance to get up to the mtns this winter? They're having a pretty good year below 3k feet. Can be iffy on the Carolina side a lot of seasons. My ex wife said Maggie valley as had a really good winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Deep frost depth plus above average snowcover will be nasty once we get that first 40 degree Rainer Recall March 2019 flooding from Nebraska to NW IL after that bombing low. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 6z GFS shoots ohio into the 40s with rain saturday now...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, WHEATCENT said: 6z GFS shoots ohio into the 40s with rain saturday now...lol Amazing how the temperature gradient is so sharply defined east to west rather than north to south. At 12Z Sunday Macon, GA is 60 degrees while Waco, TX, roughly on the same latitude, is 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Give complexity of phase, pac wave spacing, and the block, I think progressive and sheared is the way to go here Obv a dog is on the table but it's a long shot Looks like 0z runs were even worse than expected, ouch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 ^ agreed most models aren't seeing it. Model of choice: 6Z GFS. Glad, it's finally getting it's act together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Gfs has been bullish for a while, its total lack of euro, ggem or ukie support that makes it a toss. Plus it's the gfs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said: Gfs has been bullish for a while, its total lack of euro, ggem or ukie support that makes it a toss. Plus it's the gfs. now's as a good of time as any for a coup. Ironically, over the weekend it was the other globals that painted a better picture while the GFS flooded the country with brutal cold. Now the script has flipped. We know from historical reference it can go either way. Hate to see us escape this pattern without a decent high end event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Toss the GFS. Enjoy the freezer till about the 20th with occasional fluff events missing McHenrySnow south. The winter window opened will it be ready to close? ORD looks to achieve seasonal snow averages much to my disbelief. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 We'll have chances beyond this weekend, so we could get to 8-12+ by nickels and dimes over a week and a half or by a larger event. I still say chances are elevated for another widespread warning event over the next few weeks. For this weekend, the 06z GEFS provided decent support for the operational while the EPS is having none of it with one or two out of 51 members showing anything in the realm of the GFS. Banking on a phase happening and timing it perfectly is always a shaky proposition, so I agree on GFS outcome being lower probability. The Euro still shows light-mod fluff rounds over the weekend and then a decent signal for an event next Tuesday-Wednesday on the operational and a majority of EPS members. To get the outcome we want for the weekend, need to start to see movement toward it on the other globals and their ensembles (starting with 06z EPS) and of course for the GFS/GEFS to hold the signal. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 15 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Toss the GFS. Enjoy the freezer till about the 20th with occasional fluff events missing McHenrySnow south. The winter window opened will it be ready to close? ORD looks to achieve seasonal snow averages much to my disbelief. easy to do. But I've seen to many times over the years where a model that has been in consistent fail mode for a season finally hits it right. Not like the other globals weren't in on a decent event 3-4 days ago(Euro up until OOZ 2/8 run) and flipping back and forth. Irregardless, I defer to RC's post above discussing frequency of potential smaller events being on the table. Stii, the GFS event fits the profile of what can happen in this pattern. And never ever was concerned about a less than 15" call at ORD by 2/15. My hope now is we can get to some form of spring by mid March after we've flooded the pattern with cold which has a way of hanging on in some residual fashion long after the worst of it has passed. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 37 minutes ago, Baum said: easy to do. But I've seen to many times over the years where a model that has been in consistent fail mode for a season finally hits it right. Not like the other globals weren't in on a decent event 3-4 days ago(Euro up until OOZ 2/8 run) and flipping back and forth. Irregardless, I defer to RC's post above discussing frequency of potential smaller events being on the table. Stii, the GFS event fits the profile of what can happen in this pattern. And never ever was concerned about a less than 15" call at ORD by 2/15. My hope now is we can get to some form of spring by mid March after we've flooded the pattern with cold which has a way of hanging on in some residual fashion long after the worst of it has passed. Flew too close to the sun on that prediction. Felt so right mid january.lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 I know that its 84hr NAM but does this look bad? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 11 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Deep frost depth plus above average snowcover will be nasty once we get that first 40 degree Rainer March 1 2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 12z GFS beginning the cave process finally over the weekend. Still looks like it'll snow but ceiling is probably advisory type amounts. The above being said in terms of backing off phased dog solution, 12z runs today remain snowy this weekend with similar clipper fronto to what we've been getting and support for work week potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said: 12z GFS beginning the cave process finally over the weekend. Still looks like it'll snow but ceiling is probably advisory type amounts. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk I can see places like Gary, Indiana getting dumped with a deformation-band / lake-effect combo. Widespread snows look meh. Boring on this side of the lake except far southwest corner maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 euro and gfs both trying for delayed but not denied look with a potential big dog beyond the current thread worthy events 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: euro and gfs both trying for delayed but not denied look with a potential big dog beyond the current thread worthy events follows the trends that the end of an arctic outbreak is usually followed by a significant storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: euro and gfs both trying for delayed but not denied look with a potential big dog beyond the current thread worthy events Long range has been looking good forever, then they become nothing as time approaches. It was the 12th, then the 14th, then the 16th, now the 18th or later. Rather just be surprised by something. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, frostfern said: Rather just be surprised by something. I got like 4.5" last night on like .10 of liquid 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Models are mostly trying to bypass the western sub with the post-PV cutter. I would need the PV to exit more quickly and the incoming northern wave to slow down, which might create and opening for the strong southern wave to cut more nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Euro has trended a little more west on tracks 16th and beyond... but at this point I'm just jonesing. There's too many waves to know which one will really cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Any model that shows a big storm is wrong. Absolutely worthless pure weenie crap! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Any model that shows a big storm is wrong. Absolutely worthless pure weenie crap! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 7 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Any model that shows a big storm is wrong. Absolutely worthless pure weenie crap! one big storm could break down the pattern of minor-moderate systems every 36 hours with a big cold dry air dump just a matter of opinion but I would rather have 3 weeks of the above then one big storm it's adding up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 39 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: I got like 4.5" last night on like .10 of liquid I got 7.5" last night but it was a wet snow. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: one big storm could break down the pattern of minor-moderate systems every 36 hours with a big cold dry air dump just a matter of opinion but I would rather have 3 weeks of the above then one big storm it's adding up 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 12 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: one big storm could break down the pattern of minor-moderate systems every 36 hours just a matter of opinion but I would rather have 3 weeks of the above then one big storm it's adding up Southern zones do better with the long strings of weak waves... a big system will change it over to mixed garbage. Being way north of the average storm-track in this pattern I'd prefer a big-dog event to getting repeated fringe dry 1" accumulations. Being greedy though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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