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Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier
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Maybe a bit early for this, but I'm wondering what type of flooding potential this pattern is causing. With snow cover building up fast across most of the midwest and Great Lakes and lakes and rivers freezing we could be looking at a potentially pretty severe flood threat. 

Im thinking because its already February 8th and the pattern sticks around for another 10 days minimum, even just average in 10ish days is starting to get into the 40s for the southern part of the sub. 

Anyone have any idea how far south lakes and rivers are frozen? 

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56 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

Maybe a bit early for this, but I'm wondering what type of flooding potential this pattern is causing. With snow cover building up fast across most of the midwest and Great Lakes and lakes and rivers freezing we could be looking at a potentially pretty severe flood threat. 

Im thinking because its already February 8th and the pattern sticks around for another 10 days minimum, even just average in 10ish days is starting to get into the 40s for the southern part of the sub. 

Anyone have any idea how far south lakes and rivers are frozen? 

Deep frost depth plus above average snowcover will be nasty once we get that first 40 degree Rainer 

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13 hours ago, nwohweather said:

Man what a pattern for this region. Break out the snowmobiles & hockey skates, good shot that 20 degrees is not achieved in Toledo for the next week.

You had a chance to get up to the mtns this winter?  They're having a pretty good year below 3k feet.  Can be iffy on the Carolina side a lot of seasons.  My ex wife said Maggie valley as had a really good winter so far.

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1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said:

Gfs has been bullish for a while, its total lack of euro, ggem or ukie support that makes it a toss. Plus it's the gfs.

now's as a good of time as any for a coup. Ironically, over the weekend it was the other globals that painted a better picture while the GFS flooded the country with brutal cold. Now the script has flipped. We know from historical reference it can go either way. Hate to see us escape this pattern without a decent high end event. 

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Toss the GFS. Enjoy the freezer till about the 20th with occasional fluff events missing McHenrySnow south. The winter window opened will it be ready to close? ORD looks to achieve seasonal snow averages much to my disbelief.

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We'll have chances beyond this weekend, so we could get to 8-12+ by nickels and dimes over a week and a half or by a larger event. I still say chances are elevated for another widespread warning event over the next few weeks. For this weekend, the 06z GEFS provided decent support for the operational while the EPS is having none of it with one or two out of 51 members showing anything in the realm of the GFS. Banking on a phase happening and timing it perfectly is always a shaky proposition, so I agree on GFS outcome being lower probability.

 

The Euro still shows light-mod fluff rounds over the weekend and then a decent signal for an event next Tuesday-Wednesday on the operational and a majority of EPS members. To get the outcome we want for the weekend, need to start to see movement toward it on the other globals and their ensembles (starting with 06z EPS) and of course for the GFS/GEFS to hold the signal.

 

 

 

 

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15 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Toss the GFS. Enjoy the freezer till about the 20th with occasional fluff events missing McHenrySnow south. The winter window opened will it be ready to close? ORD looks to achieve seasonal snow averages much to my disbelief.

easy to do. But I've seen to many times over the years where a model that has been in consistent fail mode for a season finally hits it right. Not like the other globals weren't in on a decent event 3-4 days ago(Euro up until OOZ 2/8 run) and flipping back and forth. Irregardless, I defer to RC's post above discussing frequency of potential smaller events being on the table. Stii, the GFS event fits the profile of what can happen in this pattern. And never ever was concerned about a less than 15" call at ORD by 2/15. My hope now is we can get to some form of spring by mid March after we've flooded the pattern with cold which has a way of hanging on in some residual fashion long after the worst of it has passed.

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37 minutes ago, Baum said:

easy to do. But I've seen to many times over the years where a model that has been in consistent fail mode for a season finally hits it right. Not like the other globals weren't in on a decent event 3-4 days ago(Euro up until OOZ 2/8 run) and flipping back and forth. Irregardless, I defer to RC's post above discussing frequency of potential smaller events being on the table. Stii, the GFS event fits the profile of what can happen in this pattern. And never ever was concerned about a less than 15" call at ORD by 2/15. My hope now is we can get to some form of spring by mid March after we've flooded the pattern with cold which has a way of hanging on in some residual fashion long after the worst of it has passed.

Flew too close to the sun on that prediction. Felt so right mid january.lol

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12z GFS beginning the cave process finally over the weekend. Still looks like it'll snow but ceiling is probably advisory type amounts.

 

The above being said in terms of backing off phased dog solution, 12z runs today remain snowy this weekend with similar clipper fronto to what we've been getting and support for work week potential.

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

12z GFS beginning the cave process finally over the weekend. Still looks like it'll snow but ceiling is probably advisory type amounts.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

I can see places like Gary, Indiana getting dumped with a deformation-band / lake-effect combo.  Widespread snows look meh.  Boring on this side of the lake except far southwest corner maybe.

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2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

euro and gfs both trying for delayed but not denied look with a potential big dog beyond the current thread worthy events

follows the trends that the end of an arctic outbreak is usually followed by a significant storm

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4 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

euro and gfs both trying for delayed but not denied look with a potential big dog beyond the current thread worthy events

Long range has been looking good forever, then they become nothing as time approaches.  It was the 12th, then the 14th, then the 16th, now the 18th or later.  Rather just be surprised by something.  

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7 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Any model that shows a big storm is wrong. Absolutely worthless pure weenie crap!:angry:

one big storm could break down the pattern of minor-moderate systems every 36 hours with a big cold dry air dump

just a matter of opinion but I would rather have 3 weeks of the above then one big storm

 

it's adding up

nsm_depth_2021020905_Midwest.jpg

 

 

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12 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

one big storm could break down the pattern of minor-moderate systems every 36 hours

just a matter of opinion but I would rather have 3 weeks of the above then one big storm

it's adding up

 

Southern zones do better with the long strings of weak waves... a big system will change it over to mixed garbage.  Being way north of the average storm-track in this pattern I'd prefer a big-dog event to getting repeated fringe dry 1" accumulations.  Being greedy though.

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