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Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier
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30 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The GFS has improved significantly next weekend.  Hopefully, this wave will pan out better than the Superbowl wave train has.

18z was garbage, but 00z is at least looking more like the ECMWF.  Will probably regret staying up to see it tomorrow morning... but whatever.  

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I'm happy where I'm at.  As long as the BCZ pretty much ripples along where it's at it keeps my mini glacier in place, keeps any brutal cold just to the north and keeps a to much rockin WAA to my south.  I prefer a weeks long chilly winter phase with 1-2 here and there and a 3-5 tossed in for good measure.  We don't get a winter spell like this very often so I'm on board.  Better than a potential big dog that usually fails along the I70 corridor followed by frozen mud.  :weenie:

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42 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Ironic, or serious?

 

 

 

lil of both

our rocking week went from wave train to DAB & CAD followed by long shot triple phaser that is already giving dud vibes on the euro/gefs

gonna be counting on the lake to keep this stretch from being a total loss

 

 

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I think there's still potential in the pattern. Wed/Thu looks decent for nice event. And something more substantial in and around V-Day has some support on the ensembles. 6z GEFS below. Granted not unanimous agreement, but when I see the heart shaped height lines to the east, I get reminders of V-Day 2007. :D I wouldn't punt yet...

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_25.png

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14 minutes ago, zinski1990 said:

Why no thread for wed thur? If this was another Chicago points north storm this forum be hot right now

There are quite a few I 70 and south posters. I guess if they aren't interested in their 2-4 incher, they aren't going to discuss it here.

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1 hour ago, IWXwx said:

There are quite a few I 70 and south posters. I guess if they aren't interested in their 2-4 incher, they aren't going to discuss it here.

If they track any further south. These will be Tennessee valley threads. Might pick up a an inch tonight into Tuesday.

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lil of both
our rocking week went from wave train to DAB & CAD followed by long shot triple phaser that is already giving dud vibes on the euro/gefs
gonna be counting on the lake to keep this stretch from being a total loss
 
 
^Didn't age well

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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7 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Link?

Winter weather advisory issued as snow and chill are expected to continue in Chicago Monday and through the week

CHICAGO TRIBUNE |
FEB 08, 2021 AT 12:48 PM

Sorry, Chicago, but the winter weather is only going to get worse this week before it gets better.

Most of northern Illinois is facing an ongoing pattern of multiple snow events and single-digit air temperatures with wind chill values well below zero, said Ricky Castro, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service. Following a dusting of snow Monday morning and ahead of another potential 1 to 3 inches that could fall during the evening commute, he said not much will change with the cold and snowy forecast for the next week, at least, or possibly two.

“Depending on the magnitude of the cold air mass that comes in, it could possibly get colder than it has been. It was quite cold (Sunday), it’s cold now and it doesn’t look like that’s going to change much in the next week or two,” he said. “Realistically, it could certainly get even worse, depending on how things shape up this weekend.”

Forecasters Monday morning issued a winter weather advisory for a looming storm that could add another 1 to 3 inches of snow during the evening commute, Castro said.

“We’ve been forecasting snow accumulations, but we’re just a little more concerned now and decided to go ahead and issue a winter weather advisory to heighten the awareness for people that don’t work from home and will commute home later,” he said.

The amount of snow that could fall is not typically enough for the weather service to issue an advisory, “but it’s just that the timing is right for it, it’s going to be snowing still during the commute. And with how cold it is, the roads are probably going to be pretty rough.”
 

Castro said the typical mitigation techniques used by the city and state to keep roads clear, such as plows and salt trucks, are not as effective when the temperature is as low as it was around midday, when the city’s official weather recording station logged 11 degrees at O’Hare International Airport, 12 at Midway Airport and 13 near Lake Michigan.

Salt lowers the freezing point for water on roads below 32 degrees. But when the air temperature is near zero, salt loses its efficacy in reducing the freezing point, he said. Overnight into Tuesday, he said, the wind chill, or feels-like temperature, could get as cold as 20 below.

“At a certain point, it’s just not very useful,” Castro said about salting the roads.

He expects Monday’s system to move in from the west and to begin dropping flakes on the metro area between 2 and 6 p.m., possibly a little earlier in the western suburbs.

It will be the first of many opportunities for snow this week, Castro said. It could snow again Wednesday or Thursday, and a big snowstorm could move through the area again this weekend.

“Essentially it just keeps on coming,” Castro said. “The pattern looks cold and active, in terms of snowfall, for the foreseeable future.”

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5 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

Can't wait for the Valentine's storm thread. Another storm that likely will not happen.

Mother nature: "Can I cook or can't I?"

winter weenies: "You call this cooking you dumb b"............

Don't know if mother nature is more offended by premature storm threads or you calling her a b.....  

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