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Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier
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39 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

[Paula Cole voice] Where have all the snowstorms gone

The once promising train of baroclinic snows has moved south and trek into the east coast. Weak waves in midwest slowly blossom into 4-8 events for the east coast. Damn ocean moisture source. Hopefully we can run into a big storm a week or so from now as maybe the pattern changes.

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12 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

The once promising train of baroclinic snows has moved south and trek into the east coast. Weak waves in midwest slowly blossom into 4-8 events for the east coast. Damn ocean moisture source. Hopefully we can run into a big storm a week or so from now as maybe the pattern changes.

It’s the heliosphere 

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mic drop: 

BE WEARY  
OF ANY INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUN THAT PLUNGES OUR TEMPERATURES FURTHER  
OR DUMPS INCHES OF SNOW NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN THE ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE   
IS PRETTY DARN VAST. FOR EXAMPLE, THE IQR OF ECMWF ENSEMBLE 500 MB  
HEIGHT SPANS NEARLY 300 M OVER THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEKEND,   
SIGNALING ANYTHING FROM A DEEP TROUGH TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE   
IS IN THE SOLUTION SPACE. SO, GRAB YOUR FAVORITE HAT, GLOVES,   
HEAVY COAT, AND SNOW BRUSH WHILE FORCING A SMILE ON YOUR FACE  
DURING THIS UNDENIABLY WINTRY WEEK.-LOT

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8 minutes ago, Baum said:

mic drop: 

BE WEARY  
OF ANY INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUN THAT PLUNGES OUR TEMPERATURES FURTHER  
OR DUMPS INCHES OF SNOW NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN THE ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE   
IS PRETTY DARN VAST. FOR EXAMPLE, THE IQR OF ECMWF ENSEMBLE 500 MB  
HEIGHT SPANS NEARLY 300 M OVER THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEKEND,   
SIGNALING ANYTHING FROM A DEEP TROUGH TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE   
IS IN THE SOLUTION SPACE. SO, GRAB YOUR FAVORITE HAT, GLOVES,   
HEAVY COAT, AND SNOW BRUSH WHILE FORCING A SMILE ON YOUR FACE  
DURING THIS UNDENIABLY WINTRY WEEK.-LOT

While I definitely prefer more snow than I will get this week, I'll still have a smile on my face since it will feel like winter. #stoptheantiwinterbiasofweatherreporting

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34 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

While I definitely prefer more snow than I will get this week, I'll still have a smile on my face since it will feel like winter. #stoptheantiwinterbiasofweatherreporting

There comes a point where the hashtag is just too long.

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1 hour ago, Malacka11 said:

From now on, I refused to get invested in anything until Alek drops a positive comment 

Or just wait until the event is less than 48 hours out...  Usually at that point you can at least know whether the waves are going to phase and blow up into a legit storm or remain a strung-out dud.  Can still get screw-zoned with last-minute track-shifts though.

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4 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

84 hr NAM is trending our way!!!

1. since the change in pattern on or about 1/15 Chicago has done quite well as some predicted.

2. Though I don't see anything big imminent, any of these waves may surprise, and if not repeated 1-2 " fluuffers every 24 hours are on the table. I get, not for everyone. But it is a deep winter pattern with a deep snow pack.

3. I don't see a way out of this cold pattern without a decent storm.

4. I'm not an  expert, Instinct , pattern recognition, historical reference.

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Trust in the pattern moving forward. May not cash in immediately but think we'll get at least a solid event or two. It hasn't been what some earlier model runs showed yet, though the amount of cold air and chance for decent baroclinicity should win out eventually.

And at the least, the chances of lighter snow we're getting for now are better than the nothingness we had for 2 weeks to start January remember.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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