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Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier
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14 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Happy early birthday! I wish I had a Winter birthday lol. Mine is May 8. Spring, my least favorite season of course lol. Although it did snow last year on my birthday for the 1st time I can remember.

Thanks man! Hey, maybe there will be a nice severe outbreak if that's your cup of tea. 

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21 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Happy early birthday! I wish I had a Winter birthday lol. Mine is May 8. Spring, my least favorite season of course lol. Although it did snow last year on my birthday for the 1st time I can remember.

May 5th here. Spring is my 3rd favorite season, so I understand. Always wanted snow for my birthday. Never seen flakes on the day itself, but close. Saw several birthdays hit 90º growing up in Kentucky though. 

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A storm like the one towards the end of the 12z Euro would have almost unlimited potential with that Arctic air mass in the cold sector. That would be a rare combination of that plus a wide open Gulf. Shows the potential here if we can get a wave to properly amplify.

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6 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

The PV digging down for a phase in the 120-168 hour range is the big question of right now. If it doesn't and the Euro is right the pac jet cuts underneath it, it won't happen, just skimming the northern US, pulling back to northern Canada as the Strat cooling starts effecting downstream. Sure, you'll have leftover energy, but that is usually over modeled, especially at that range. Its a one shot deal for record breaking cold for a large chunk of this forum.............of course most of us don't care about that. We just want snow. Though, it is very possible, you could have both. A rare event.

Are you sure it’s not the interaction with the heliosphere causing interference...

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1 hour ago, Snownado said:

Is it just me or does it seem like this winter it's easier to get snow further south the further west you go ? That map is a good example. 30" in Central Missouri and due east in Louisville nothing. 40" in Northern Missouri and due east in Indy 9".

Then it's the other way around when spring comes.  Warmth always gets farther north faster the farther west you go.

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5 minutes ago, frostfern said:

Then it's the other way around when spring comes.  Warmth always gets farther north faster the farther west you go.

Honestly i think i'd rather be further west and get the cold and snow in winter and warmth earlier in the spring.

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3 hours ago, Gino27 said:

Y'all can have the snow at this point. I'm afraid I'll be doing another spring training for baseball indoors assuming they won't let schools travel down south.

That's a nice way of pretending that map's not super painful for Central Ohio snow weenies.

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19 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

You can at least double those numbers with the extreme cold air in place

You seriously want to double GFS snow amounts 2 weeks out?  If the fantasy range brutal cold the GFS is bringing happens Birmingham AL is gonna get more snow than we will lol.  It's advertising 2014 cold and trust me we're not built for that, don't want it, MN and IA can keep it.

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3 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

You seriously want to double GFS snow amounts 2 weeks out?  If the fantasy range brutal cold the GFS is bringing happens Birmingham AL is gonna get more snow than we will lol.  It's advertising 2014 cold and trust me we're not built for that, don't want it, MN and IA can keep it.

Extreme cold is cool for a couple of days, but I don't want it forever ! I'm definitely more a fan of big snow than big cold.

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5 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

You seriously want to double GFS snow amounts 2 weeks out?  If the fantasy range brutal cold the GFS is bringing happens Birmingham AL is gonna get more snow than we will lol.  It's advertising 2014 cold and trust me we're not built for that, don't want it, MN and IA can keep it.

I'm in MN, and I don't want it. Passing it like a cold "hot" potato back to Canada.

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24 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

You seriously want to double GFS snow amounts 2 weeks out?  If the fantasy range brutal cold the GFS is bringing happens Birmingham AL is gonna get more snow than we will lol.  It's advertising 2014 cold and trust me we're not built for that, don't want it, MN and IA can keep it.

Oh trust and believe I am not a fan of extreme brutal cold. That stuff hurts to walk in

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13 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

So about the GEM.

lol seems like an unlikely outcome but trends are to a switch to average temps around the start of next week.  the models are still honing in on the exact solution but it looks like after the TPV moves over the northern sub next weekend the cold air will start to decay and some pacific air will make it into the region

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