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Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier
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4 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Aside from the extreme NAO block, the pattern this weekend through next week is the closest looking to 2014 that we've had since 2014. The initial ridge spike dislodges the PV lobe which then gets trapped underneath the block. Whereas in 2014 there were constant reloads of the EPO ridging that brought down PV lobes.

Either way, it gets to a fairly similar look in the CONUS, with a strong polar jet directed right into the subforum and a train of Pac hybrid shortwaves.

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Was thinking same thing. Haven’t seen something like this since 2014 with multiple/many chances at solid accums + impressive cold

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26 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

As I mentioned to Ricky off the board, decent shot ORD is around 50” for the season in mid Feb, if things work out correctly.


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A rally for the ages if that happens.  Even 98-99 took much longer to get to 50", which is right about where the final total ended up.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

A rally for the ages if that happens.  Even 98-99 took much longer to get to 50", which is right about where the final total ended up.

This would be amazing based on previous slow starts you showed.

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7 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Those that were wanting the clipper train may get what they wanted, from the look of the upcoming pattern on 0z guidance.

Only thing is it wouldn’t be clippers of Alberta/Saskatchewan/Manitoba origin...But instead of PAC NW origin, due to positioning of the PV lobe.


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3 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Aside from the extreme NAO block, the pattern this weekend through next week is the closest looking to 2014 that we've had since 2014. The initial ridge spike dislodges the PV lobe which then gets trapped underneath the block. Whereas in 2014 there were constant reloads of the EPO ridging that brought down PV lobes.

Either way, it gets to a fairly similar look in the CONUS, with a strong polar jet directed right into the subforum and a train of Pac hybrid shortwaves.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

I'm assuming that would portend more moisture than with a typical clipper track and hence more flake stacking. If that's the case, count me in, even if I have freeze my reasoner to get the snow.

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15 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

clipper trains are zzzzz unless you already have 1'+ otg which we do so bring it

Clippers often bring some of the highest impact weather of winter IMBY.  Don't get any lake enhancement with southern stream storms but often do with the clippers especially if they are associated with a re-enforcing arctic surge.  Totals usually aren't over 6", but it often comes down fast and with wind and low visibility.  Spreads the wealth inland much better than typical lake-effect too.

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Looks like a good chunk of the DVN cwa has a legit shot at achieving 20"+ snow cover by next week.  Euro shows 10-15" of snow to fall on an existing 10-15" of snow cover.  The multi-layers of ice mixed in with the snowpack, and additional heavy cover to come means we won't be seeing the grass for quite a long time it would seem.

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1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

you can tell all the overnight runs came in zzzz when all the threads barely moved

hate to see the storm parade dry up, but we should still hit on one high ratio event early next week with intermittent dusters

Can relax that 50" at ORD by mid Feb. is safe

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you can tell all the overnight runs came in zzzz when all the threads barely moved hate to see the storm parade dry up, but we should still hit on one high ratio event early next week with intermittent dusters

 

I didn't see any zzzz overnight. The 00z Euro looked really good on Sunday and it had good support from its ensemble and the signal for Monday is still good with GFS/GEFS the most excited.  

 

 

Edit: I see the 06z Euro shifted south on Sunday, but that's not really a big deal in a pattern like this. Could easily come back north, as the guidance is going to struggle with exact positioning of the baroclinic zone and the influence of the PV being to the north.

 

 

 

 

 

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The wave train seems to be temporarily derailed we need to trend back to the 12z and 18z runs from yesterday. There are certainly going to be many opportunities over the next 5 days or so. Lets reel em in.

EDIT

And 12z GEM  comes in with something in for the monday/tuesday time frame with a nice hit for C IL,N IN and western MI. Gives northern IL about .3 to .4 precip with ratios north of 20:1. 

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The wave train seems to be temporarily derailed we need to trend back to the 12z and 18z runs from yesterday. There are certainly going to be many opportunities over the next 5 days or so. Lets reel em in.
You wrote that before the 12z GEM rolled out haha. Looks really nice for Sunday evening/night through Monday. I think ultimately the later Sunday-Monday period has a decent chance to work out for a solid event. Saturday PM should snow in most of the CWA but needs work to be anything more than a 1-3" type event.

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6 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

For every bit of hope we lost for this weekend/early week, there's more opportunity springing up around the 160 hour mark. Monday still looks like it could easily by a 5"+ event if things work out alright, I don't see why everyone's pissing and shitting themselves.

model huggers never learn:facepalm:

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model huggers never learn:facepalm:
In this sort of a pattern, each operational run needs to be treated similarly to an ensemble member. A good way to tell a pattern is active and also prone to less lead time for higher predictability is looping 6-hour QPF or snow on the ens. Starting Saturday there's members that have action every 6-hour block, with certain time periods a bit more favored than others. With multiple lower amplitude short-waves it adds a lot of chaos to the modelling.

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peeks of average to above average temps finally arriving around 2/17-2/19.  Guessing people will be getting tired of the cold by then

There’s actually growing support for a pattern change.

As of now ENS show the -AO/-NAO we’ve seen relax to neutral, the -PNA going neutral or + and the neutral EPO going +. That all combined with the MJO expected to be in phase 7.

Could lead to a more volatile pattern with warm/cold swings, or a just warmer pattern overall.

We’ll see if ENS continues to show this, or if it gets pushed back a bit...how all big pattern changes usually do.


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There’s actually growing support for a pattern change.

As of now ENS show the -AO/-NAO we’ve seen relax to neutral, the -PNA going neutral or + and the neutral EPO going +. That all combined with the MJO expected to be in phase 7.

Could lead to a more volatile pattern with warm/cold swings, or a just warmer pattern overall.

We’ll see if ENS continues to show this, or if it gets pushed back a bit...how all big pattern changes usually do.


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Depends which ensemble you're looking at too, new 12z GEFS looks very cold through beyond d10 and the 06z run only hinted at possible relaxation at the end which takes us almost out to the last week of the month. 00z EPS showed an easing out in the day 10-15 but it too hinting at higher heights near Greenland all the way through day 15.

At some point figure this has to end, though the polar blocking has been way more persistent than anyone expected going into this winter, so that probably remains a wildcard. If the past is any guide, the 09-10 block actually lasted into March but by the cold air was gone. I'm not sure how much influence the MJO is having as most phase diagrams have it looping around in 7, with only CFS trying to send it into p8.

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3 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Depends which ensemble you're looking at too, new 12z GEFS looks very cold through beyond d10 and the 06z run only hinted at possible relaxation at the end which takes us almost out to the last week of the month. 00z EPS showed an easing out in the day 10-15 but it too hinting at higher heights near Greenland all the way through day 15.
 

Past several GEFS runs have shown the teleconnections I mentioned...So it's nothing new or anything that has changed.

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Past several GEFS runs have shown the teleconnections I mentioned...So it's nothing new or anything that has changed.
AO and NAO negative through the end of the run, just less negative after day 10 than they'll be through day 10. All in all, not really disagreeing, will probably be last week to 10 days of the month before there's much change. By then, some huge negative departures will have been built up and snow pack should also too, which could also help serve to delay a noteworthy pattern change.

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another thing to note is that the Stratospheric Polar Winds had their last reversal a few days ago and are now forecast to return to normal levels by mid-month.  The tropospheric flow has been disrupted and the cold air will be dislodged for a while but there won't be any more stratospheric disruptions until the final warming later in the spring.

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