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Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier
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GFS continues to show very cold air for about a week starting on Friday, with the brunt of the coldest air in the Sun-Tue timeframe.  After next week most long range models show the core of the coldest air shifting slightly NW to the Northern Plains, but it will still easily reach this region on the backside of any trough.

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NAO going slightly positive for a spell soon before plunging back down to slightly negative over the next week. PNA is heading neutral over the next few weeks. AO remains rather negative for the foreseeable future.

The MJO looks to remain mainly in Phase 6 over the next few weeks.

enlighten us on what this all means.


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Euro in agreement with cold starting Friday after the EOW system with the core of the coldest temps on Sunday thru Tuesday with some slight moderation after that.

Some relevant record mins and low maxes for the period at MSN

5 -21 1936 -8 1895

6 -19 1977 -5 1875

7 -21 1875 -2 1893

8 -22 1899 -7 1875

9 -28 1899 -15 1899

10 -25 1899 -5 1899

11 -22 1885 -6 1899

 

Notable that all those 1899 dates are during the great Arctic outbreak where ice floes came out of the mouth of the Mississippi and New Orleans got down to their all time record of 6.  

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quad cities rake this morning: "SOME PASSING THOUGHTS ON THIS... THIS IS REAL WINTER WEATHER.   WIND   
WILL BRING MOVING SNOW, AND HEADLINED WIND CHILLS DAILY.   RIVER   
WILL RAPIDLY FORM THICK ICE, AND THAT'S BEEN SLOW TO HAPPEN THIS   
WINTER.  WE ALREADY HAVE DEEP LOCAL SNOW PACK EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTH,   
AND WITH LIGHT SNOW ALMOST A GUARANTEE IN ANY ARCTIC PATTERN, I   
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE SECOND WEEK OF FEBRUARY WILL BE THE   
COLDEST OF THE WINTER SEASON.  "

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2 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

We could be in for quite the stretch of winter weather folks. Might even be one for the books

hype. But I'm not against being wrong.

per quad cities AFD:"EITHER WAY, THIS A REAL WINTER PATTERN, THAT WILL HAVE DAILY IMPACTS   
TO LIFE. "

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Those that were wanting the clipper train may get what they wanted, from the look of the upcoming pattern on 0z guidance.

Only thing is it wouldn’t be clippers of Alberta/Saskatchewan/Manitoba origin...But instead of PAC NW origin, due to positioning of the PV lobe.


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Aside from the extreme NAO block, the pattern this weekend through next week is the closest looking to 2014 that we've had since 2014. The initial ridge spike dislodges the PV lobe which then gets trapped underneath the block. Whereas in 2014 there were constant reloads of the EPO ridging that brought down PV lobes.

Either way, it gets to a fairly similar look in the CONUS, with a strong polar jet directed right into the subforum and a train of Pac hybrid shortwaves.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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