RobertSul Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 9 hours ago, Snownado said: Well apparently it wont have much impact on February since TWC is predicting a very warm February. As long as the polar vortex doesn’t watch the Weather Channel I think we’ll be okay. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 According to the 12Z GFS on 1/30 real winter will start the weekend of the 2/5 in the Great Lakes. Curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 If it's gonna be -20F, then let's do it with five foot snow drifts everywhere 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 19 hours ago, Snownado said: Well apparently it wont have much impact on February since TWC is predicting a very warm February. Lmao I heard that. Anyone have a twc map of their Feb forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 12:04 AM, StormfanaticInd said: Gfs is stupid cold in the long range. Hopefully this doesn't come anywhere close to verifying I love these maps in the winter as it clearly shows the climate difference that the Great Lakes cause compared to other similar areas. In the Summer it sucks until about July as the warmth gets destroyed trying to get into the immediate Great Lakes region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitchener poster Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 On 1/28/2021 at 12:04 AM, StormfanaticInd said: Gfs is stupid cold in the long range. Hopefully this doesn't come anywhere close to verifying That would be pretty devastating in places like Kentucky. People will have to cover a lot of plants. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 hours ago, Kitchener poster said: That would be pretty devastating in places like Kentucky. People will have to cover a lot of plants. Kentucky? It would be brutal for them though but not many plants to cover that far north. Maybe the Deep South 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 hour ago, mississaugasnow said: Kentucky? It would be brutal for them though but not many plants to cover that far north. Maybe the Deep South The GFS has been advertising extreme cold all winter long beyond 300 hours but it’s never come to fruition. Although, this time around it could be legit but I'm thinking towards the Prairies. With the cold centered around SK and MB along with a weak SE ridge, February could be our biggest month if other things align. The key is blocking. It's putting a damper on the current storm track, need that to ease up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 How's this for a pattern? Big storm or not, tonight's GFS and Euro are bringing some very cold air down into the CONUS around this period, with high temps below zero across the midwest. 00z Euro next weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2021 Author Share Posted January 31, 2021 Might need a separate thread at some point. The Brian D thread is not really applicable anymore. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 I'm hopeful for a good WSW flow lake-effect pattern. Frequent waves rotating around a nice arctic lobe would be nice. Still a lot of uncertainty though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2021 Author Share Posted January 31, 2021 If CIPS ran off of the GEM, I guarantee GHD 1 would be the top analog for that storm it has a week from now. Unbelievably similar look on that run, just ends up farther north. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Epic stretch incoming 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: FFFFFFFFFFFFF That. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Nothing like a refreshing little -50 wind chill. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 9 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: Subscribe 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Death, taxes and the GFS showing insane cold in the extended 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 I'm dead 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Nothing like a refreshing little -50 wind chill. Thats just painful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 The EURO gets extreme at the end of its run too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 All signals are there for serious cold to be in place from the 7-14 of February. Some signals that a piece of the TPV will come rotating through the area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Haven't had a good clipper-train / lake-effect pattern in a long time. Hopefully this pans out. GFS almost looks too cold for good accumulations though. Would prefer the DGZ rise above 5000 feet with waves coming across the lake. I remember Jan 28-31 2018 had decent small accumulations with waves that added up to over a foot of snowpack despite a very low DGZ a lot of the time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 18z GFS with even colder wind chills into far NW IL. This is probably among the top 5 coldest modeled wind chills that I've ever seen in the state. Not putting too much stock in these extremes yet, due to the well-known GFS cold bias at range...and of course it's still 7 days out. And some -70s on the map northern Manitoba...just a bit chilly. 12z GEM and 18z GFS v16 are actually starting to show wind chills worthy of advisory/warning criteria...but it's mainly -35 to -45 in the coldest areas instead of -50s. Either way, I think the probability of a significant arctic outbreak is increasing. We'll see if it ends up being near record breaking (say 30+ degrees below normal), or just a run of the mill cold snap (say 20-30 degrees below normal). Today is the anniversary of the 2019 cold snap, where Rockford's -31 broke its all time record low by 4 degrees...with a period of record 100+ years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 4 hours ago, madwx said: Some signals that a piece of the TPV will come rotating through the area The media loved themed POLAR VORTEX (back in the day we just called this cold) The local news will be opening with this video and music to warn us all about the POOOLAR VOOOORTEX 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 4 hours ago, beavis1729 said: 18z GFS with even colder wind chills into far NW IL. This is probably among the top 5 coldest modeled wind chills that I've ever seen in the state. Not putting too much stock in these extremes yet, due to the well-known GFS cold bias at range...and of course it's still 7 days out. And some -70s on the map northern Manitoba...just a bit chilly. 12z GEM and 18z GFS v16 are actually starting to show wind chills worthy of advisory/warning criteria...but it's mainly -35 to -45 in the coldest areas instead of -50s. Either way, I think the probability of a significant arctic outbreak is increasing. We'll see if it ends up being near record breaking (say 30+ degrees below normal), or just a run of the mill cold snap (say 20-30 degrees below normal). Today is the anniversary of the 2019 cold snap, where Rockford's -31 broke its all time record low by 4 degrees...with a period of record 100+ years. Whats your prediction for next weekend??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Tonight's Euro.... -14º at noon Monday here in Iowa. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Not a lot of snow south of Michigan in the long range on either the 00z GFS or 00z Euro, even with the upcoming cold shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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