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Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier
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On 1/28/2021 at 12:04 AM, StormfanaticInd said:

image.thumb.png.b311cc6a19ca28dfb022686514b7f18c.pngGfs is stupid cold in the long range. Hopefully this doesn't come anywhere close to verifying 

I love these maps in the winter as it clearly shows the climate difference that the Great Lakes cause compared to other similar areas. In the Summer it sucks until about July as the warmth gets destroyed trying to get into the immediate Great Lakes region. 

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1 hour ago, mississaugasnow said:

Kentucky?  It would be brutal for them though but not many plants to cover that far north. 

Maybe the Deep South 

The GFS has been advertising extreme cold all winter long beyond 300 hours but it’s never come to fruition. Although, this time around it could be legit but I'm thinking towards the Prairies. With the cold centered around SK and MB along with a weak SE ridge, February could be our biggest month if other things align. The key is blocking. It's putting a damper on the current storm track, need that to ease up. 

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Haven't had a good clipper-train / lake-effect pattern in a long time.  Hopefully this pans out.  GFS almost looks too cold for good accumulations though.  Would prefer the DGZ rise above 5000 feet with waves coming across the lake.  I remember Jan 28-31 2018 had decent small accumulations with waves that added up to over a foot of snowpack despite a very low DGZ a lot of the time.

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18z GFS with even colder wind chills into far NW IL.  This is probably among the top 5 coldest modeled wind chills that I've ever seen in the state.  Not putting too much stock in these extremes yet, due to the well-known GFS cold bias at range...and of course it's still 7 days out.  And some -70s on the map northern Manitoba...just a bit chilly.

12z GEM and 18z GFS v16 are actually starting to show wind chills worthy of advisory/warning criteria...but it's mainly -35 to -45 in the coldest areas instead of -50s.

Either way, I think the probability of a significant arctic outbreak is increasing.  We'll see if it ends up being near record breaking (say 30+ degrees below normal), or just a run of the mill cold snap (say 20-30 degrees below normal). 

Today is the anniversary of the 2019 cold snap, where Rockford's -31 broke its all time record low by 4 degrees...with a period of record 100+ years. :wub:

sfctapp.conus.png

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4 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

18z GFS with even colder wind chills into far NW IL.  This is probably among the top 5 coldest modeled wind chills that I've ever seen in the state.  Not putting too much stock in these extremes yet, due to the well-known GFS cold bias at range...and of course it's still 7 days out.  And some -70s on the map northern Manitoba...just a bit chilly.

12z GEM and 18z GFS v16 are actually starting to show wind chills worthy of advisory/warning criteria...but it's mainly -35 to -45 in the coldest areas instead of -50s.

Either way, I think the probability of a significant arctic outbreak is increasing.  We'll see if it ends up being near record breaking (say 30+ degrees below normal), or just a run of the mill cold snap (say 20-30 degrees below normal). 

Today is the anniversary of the 2019 cold snap, where Rockford's -31 broke its all time record low by 4 degrees...with a period of record 100+ years. :wub:

sfctapp.conus.png

Whats your prediction for next weekend???

VengefulZanyAtlanticridleyturtle-size_restricted.gif

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