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Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier
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Will we ever have another 7-10 day clipper train period?  And don't say that NW flow set up we had with 2-3 waves of 1/2" snowfalls in 35 degree temps was it. It was not. I'm talking an energetic wave train with  arctic air in place that puts down 3-4' on 0.15 of QPF in the heart of winter with a solid snowpack already in place every 36 hours or so,
They happen, they just never seem to jackpot us, we usually end up missing north or south. Winter 2017-18 had stretches like that, Detroit area back to Wisconsin benefitted from the December round.

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52 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

They happen, they just never seem to jackpot us, we usually end up missing north or south. Winter 2017-18 had stretches like that, Detroit area back to Wisconsin benefitted from the December round.

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That is what made December 2017 a great month but it was pretty localized to the area you mentioned. Snowfall that month was 22.5" in Detroit and 5.3" in Chicago.

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FWIW, GFS (Pivotal) has most of WI getting 15" - 20" through 240 hours (depending on whether you use 10:1 or Kuchera). Euro only has 10:1 on the free version but it has 8"-9" with the exception of an inexplicable N-S screw zone from about Marengo, IL to Lake Winnebago.

I think it's safe to say that, all-important details aside, the zzzzzzzzzz pattern is over for most of us.

 

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19 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

image.thumb.png.b311cc6a19ca28dfb022686514b7f18c.pngGfs is stupid cold in the long range. Hopefully this doesn't come anywhere close to verifying 

Hopefully it does.   FWIW there does seem to be consensus, if there can be at this range, of finally a real winter airmass settling in for a bit after this coming weekend.  That GFS is 2015 brutal in its extended playland.  That cold air is something we've been lacking the last couple winters and this year.  We get some of our best snows on either side of a deep arctic airmass down here in central IN.  Also opens the door for the unheard of lately clippers.  Gotta pay to play :weenie:

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7 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Hopefully it does.   FWIW there does seem to be consensus, if there can be at this range, of finally a real winter airmass settling in for a bit after this coming weekend.  That GFS is 2015 brutal in its extended playland.  That cold air is something we've been lacking the last couple winters and this year.  We get some of our best snows on either side of a deep arctic airmass down here in central IN.  Also opens the door for the unheard of lately clippers.  Gotta pay to play :weenie:

The timing would fit the ssw we had in early January at about six weeks

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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Let it go guys.  

Good rule is to not bump old posts that you know will cause a fight.

No problem here. I never get too emotional over weather or weather posts. Gordon Gekko taught me that in Wall St.lol

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