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Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier
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59 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

It pains me to say this, but the next possibly noteworthy system, around 150 hours out, has caught my attention. 

Right before a minitorch to end January and again on day 10, with a nickel-and-dime system in between to kick off February. :lol:

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

Meanwhile, the 00z GFS is a shutout for a majority of IL, IN, and OH.

tenor.gifsn10_acc.us_mw.png

Heading to February, the MJO is supposed to fluctuate between phases 6 and 7 before eventually settling into the latter phase.image.png.2cfd0bece308f710e14f2e2a98567304.png

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12 minutes ago, Spartman said:

Right before a minitorch to end January and again on day 10, with a nickel-and-dime system in between to kick off February. :lol:

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

Meanwhile, the 00z GFS is a shutout for a majority of IL, IN, and OH.

tenor.gifsn10_acc.us_mw.png

Heading to February, the MJO is supposed to fluctuate between phases 6 and 7 before eventually settling into the latter phase.image.png.2cfd0bece308f710e14f2e2a98567304.png

Ty I was waiting for these. 

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9 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

It pains me to say this, but the next possibly noteworthy system, around 150 hours out, has caught my attention. 

euro and ggem were good, gfs moving towards something

weekend potential might be real

EDIT: i've definitely slept on this concentrating on current event, looks good

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10 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

It pains me to say this, but the next possibly noteworthy system, around 150 hours out, has caught my attention. 

I agree. It's interesting to say the least.

Only thing I’m concerned about is the progressive flow. The northern stream doesn’t really dig further south and like our current storm, it’s all southern stream. Nonetheless, it could be a decent overrunning event with some STJ influence too. We’ll know more as the week progresses and when it’s sampled come Thursday night.

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1 minute ago, mimillman said:

If nothing else, this looks like it could be another fun one that trends drier

Another wave that will peak west, and then shear/weaken as it pushes east...And that is actually due in part to the northern lobe in Canada for the current event, which ends up off the East Coast for the weekend event.

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There's significant system in the long range (~252) with a fairly decent amount of deterministic and ensemble support. Powerhouse longwave trough traverses the country during the period and assuming a neg tilt/quality ejection from the 4 corners, could lead to a significant system for someone somewhere in the midwest. Meanwhile in the warm sector, assuming moisture, the general look aloft is analogous to significant severe weather outbreaks in the lower OV and Dixie.

One of the better GEFS analogs upstairs is 2/5/2008.....

500wh.conus.png

500h_anom.conus.png

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1 hour ago, hlcater said:

There's significant system in the long range (~252) with a fairly decent amount of deterministic and ensemble support. Powerhouse longwave trough traverses the country during the period and assuming a neg tilt/quality ejection from the 4 corners, could lead to a significant system for someone somewhere in the midwest. Meanwhile in the warm sector, assuming moisture, the general look aloft is analogous to significant severe weather outbreaks in the lower OV and Dixie.

One of the better GEFS analogs upstairs is 2/5/2008.....

500wh.conus.png

500h_anom.conus.png

This ain't 2008 or 2011...weather just doesn't do cool **** in the midsection of the country anymore, whether winter or severe, even with a La Nina.

* Unless it's a historic derecho that just happens without any sort of lead time from the models and thus from the forecasting enterprise.

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