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Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier
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Doesn't seem right
I don't want to rule out us mixing at any point in that WAA regime. The setup looks rather similar to the late December event with better cold air available leading in. Coming so closely on the heels of departure of cold dry high pressure, we should snow decently down here.

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1 hour ago, mimillman said:

I can't even remember what happened with that event I'm so jaded/exhausted from disappointment

MKX issued Winter Storm Watches and within 6 hours the models had half of the area getting no snow at all.  The NAM went from about 13" to 2" in 2 model runs.  Fun times

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1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

06Z EPS Upper Midwest zoom individual members. Some good hits locally, some clunkers. Obviously would like to see the number of good hits on the members increase along with favorable trends in the operational models for the 12z cycle. 010202fa18ad018e425a05c9c8353fa0.jpg7f4965656abe8c0a1098812d42d7dfb0.jpg

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Would like to see more members bullseyeing the LOT I-80 corridor in IL and IN.  Not that many of those on that run.

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Is this supposed to be one elongated system or several low pressures?

There's the warm advection phase Saturday into Sunday and then main wave comes out Sunday night-Monday night. Problem is the GFS is suppression city for the main wave. 12z GEM solution is a good hit for many north of US-24.  

 

 

Edit: 12z UKMET is suppressed with the main wave but not to the extent of the GFS.

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

There's the warm advection phase Saturday into Sunday and then main wave comes out Sunday night-Monday night. Problem is the GFS is suppression city for the main wave. 12z GEM solution is a good hit for many north of US-24.  

 

 

Edit: 12z UKMET is suppressed with the main wave but not to the extent of the GFS.

 

 

 

 

 

Euro looks like it wants to play ball too. Should be a good N IL hit this run

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