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Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier
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1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:


For the first time this season there’s actually going to be a large reservoir of cold air nearby for the multi-wave period in question.


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Okay, I understand what you're saying. However, ORD is in a better position than FWA.  It still looks marginal to me for mby, at least until the last wave rolls through mid-late next week.

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29 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I wish more members were farther south.  It seems like it's been forever since a storm of significance jackpotted I-80 and up into the city, vs areas farther north.  You know this all too well.  :frostymelt:

I’m more happy ensembles are further north vs further south 144 hours out with this blocking pattern 

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8 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:
Borrowed from the TN forum...
 
This 10-15 day hemispheric-scale pattern is teetering on a knife's edge between total dumpster fire & an ice box in the CONUS during early Feb w/ basically no room for anything in between.
Image
 
 

 

 

 I am terrible at reading those type of maps for what they mean at the surface but I know extended runs have definitely shown a lot of abnormal cold in Canada for February.  Someone mentioned that the split polar vortex cold will now be on our side of the globe in February where currently it's on the other side. Take it all for what it's worth and we all know how bad LR models can be but honestly February does not have a bad look for being a wintry month in our sub. If it does get very cold hopefully we can get into a clippery pattern and the ice fisherman can have their fun but I have a feeling that what some to our Southeast considerate "dumpster fire" could actually mean less cold with lots of storminess in our neck of the woods.  Anomalous cold is not as important up here as it is down there for snowstorms.

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 I am terrible at reading those type of maps for what they mean at the surface but I know extended runs have definitely shown a lot of abnormal cold in Canada for February.  Someone mentioned that the split polar vortex cold will now be on our side of the globe in February where currently it's on the other side. Take it all for what it's worth and we all know how bad LR models can be but honestly February does not have a bad look for being a wintry month in our sub. If it does get very cold hopefully we can get into a clippery pattern and the ice fisherman can have their fun but I have a feeling that what some to our Southeast considerate "dumpster fire" could actually mean less cold with lots of storminess in our neck of the woods.  Anomalous cold is not as important up here as it is down there for snowstorms.
That map is better than when I commented on the EPS yesterday or the day before. That large ridge extending north of Alaska is I believe an extension of a -WPO and probably owing to the -AO. So if the MJO doesn't lose amplitude from unfavorable phases and keeps going into 8-1-2, I could believe very cold air getting down sometime in February. Would think the active flow pattern should continue as the La Nina forcing continues I'm the Pacific.

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Imagine the growing season if we can link a March 2012 with the warmest April ever. By May it’s really too warm to screw with climatology enough to make widespread freezes.

 

 

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whatever happened with your greenhouse thing you built in the OG Morch? Up in Saukville right?

 

iirc you kind of got ran out of here with all the constant torch talk....

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6z EPS
Giving up on this already? Don't think so
1611640800-sRsQzZcpizk.png&key=ed64e4531d796d2e3f4f840f8aca9ffb66cadc14219f83cc6e596a45d6d8c5b7
1611619200-HNe728domss.png&key=4e4118b8c2b10dc453360c6a00ec3f55dc6655031097157540edb1b946b46342
06Z EPS Upper Midwest zoom individual members. Some good hits locally, some clunkers. Obviously would like to see the number of good hits on the members increase along with favorable trends in the operational models for the 12z cycle. 010202fa18ad018e425a05c9c8353fa0.jpg7f4965656abe8c0a1098812d42d7dfb0.jpg

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