IWXwx Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: For the first time this season there’s actually going to be a large reservoir of cold air nearby for the multi-wave period in question. . Okay, I understand what you're saying. However, ORD is in a better position than FWA. It still looks marginal to me for mby, at least until the last wave rolls through mid-late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Dude, where’s my snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 29 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I wish more members were farther south. It seems like it's been forever since a storm of significance jackpotted I-80 and up into the city, vs areas farther north. You know this all too well. I’m more happy ensembles are further north vs further south 144 hours out with this blocking pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 I’m more happy ensembles are further north vs further south 144 hours out with this blocking pattern Still have nightmares of the March 2018 miss in a similarly pronounced west based -NAO pattern. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 7 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Still have nightmares of the March 2018 miss in a similarly pronounced west based -NAO pattern. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Zero snow here while 50 miles southwest had 8-11 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 57 minutes ago, Stebo said: The issue the further east you go is the -NAO is creating confluence and bending down the heights in front of the system. We needed a -NAO but not one this massive. Wouldnt the negative NAO also make liquid precipitation less likely? Still 5 days out and a lot of model runs to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEILwxbo Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 25 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Still have nightmares of the March 2018 miss in a similarly pronounced west based -NAO pattern. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Thanks for the reminder...that was painful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Borrowed from the TN forum... Eric Webb @webberweather · 6h This 10-15 day hemispheric-scale pattern is teetering on a knife's edge between total dumpster fire & an ice box in the CONUS during early Feb w/ basically no room for anything in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 8 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: Borrowed from the TN forum... Eric Webb @webberweather · 6h This 10-15 day hemispheric-scale pattern is teetering on a knife's edge between total dumpster fire & an ice box in the CONUS during early Feb w/ basically no room for anything in between. I am terrible at reading those type of maps for what they mean at the surface but I know extended runs have definitely shown a lot of abnormal cold in Canada for February. Someone mentioned that the split polar vortex cold will now be on our side of the globe in February where currently it's on the other side. Take it all for what it's worth and we all know how bad LR models can be but honestly February does not have a bad look for being a wintry month in our sub. If it does get very cold hopefully we can get into a clippery pattern and the ice fisherman can have their fun but I have a feeling that what some to our Southeast considerate "dumpster fire" could actually mean less cold with lots of storminess in our neck of the woods. Anomalous cold is not as important up here as it is down there for snowstorms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Morch 2020. Lock it in. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2021 Author Share Posted January 20, 2021 Without even looking at a prog, you will be right 99 times out of 100 if you bet against a repeat of March 2012. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Without even looking at a prog, you will be right 99 times out of 100 if you bet against a repeat of March 2012.Imagine the growing season if we can link a March 2012 with the warmest April ever. By May it’s really too warm to screw with climatology enough to make widespread freezes. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 I am terrible at reading those type of maps for what they mean at the surface but I know extended runs have definitely shown a lot of abnormal cold in Canada for February. Someone mentioned that the split polar vortex cold will now be on our side of the globe in February where currently it's on the other side. Take it all for what it's worth and we all know how bad LR models can be but honestly February does not have a bad look for being a wintry month in our sub. If it does get very cold hopefully we can get into a clippery pattern and the ice fisherman can have their fun but I have a feeling that what some to our Southeast considerate "dumpster fire" could actually mean less cold with lots of storminess in our neck of the woods. Anomalous cold is not as important up here as it is down there for snowstorms.That map is better than when I commented on the EPS yesterday or the day before. That large ridge extending north of Alaska is I believe an extension of a -WPO and probably owing to the -AO. So if the MJO doesn't lose amplitude from unfavorable phases and keeps going into 8-1-2, I could believe very cold air getting down sometime in February. Would think the active flow pattern should continue as the La Nina forcing continues I'm the Pacific. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyweather Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Imagine the growing season if we can link a March 2012 with the warmest April ever. By May it’s really too warm to screw with climatology enough to make widespread freezes. . whatever happened with your greenhouse thing you built in the OG Morch? Up in Saukville right? iirc you kind of got ran out of here with all the constant torch talk.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Suicide runs continue on the 18z and 00z GFS. Lock it in. :sarcasm 00z GDPS: 00z Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 du calme everyone. still plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 EPS 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 The block wants to shred anything and everything. Euro/ukie have the energy survive while the eps even pushes precip up into the most of the sub for wave 2. This thing isn’t far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 been the story for awhile. Cutter/Rain or a shredded POS shunted further south and east or into oblivion due to blocking. Something needs to break the several years trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 hoping we see some ticks up with the sunday advection snows, models p stingy for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 29 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: not a true suicide run. That was last February when a surefire 12" er drifted off into oblivion over 2 runs 36 hours out. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 14 minutes ago, Baum said: not a true suicide run. That was last February when a surefire 12" er drifted off into oblivion over 2 runs 36 hours out. This has legs to do the opposite imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 6z EPS Giving up on this already? Don't think so 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 more purple please 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 hour ago, Baum said: not a true suicide run. That was last February when a surefire 12" er drifted off into oblivion over 2 runs 36 hours out. That was a classic 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 ^yep. board infamy. Hate to see Mchenry endure that collapse. Here's hoping for a reverse of this upcoming. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 the 12z runs came in right after that meme was created and it was all jagsfan.gif from there 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 I can't even remember what happened with that event I'm so jaded/exhausted from disappointment 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 6z EPS Giving up on this already? Don't think so06Z EPS Upper Midwest zoom individual members. Some good hits locally, some clunkers. Obviously would like to see the number of good hits on the members increase along with favorable trends in the operational models for the 12z cycle. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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