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Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier
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  On 1/19/2021 at 2:05 AM, kevlon62 said:

In on that and it makes all the difference (for me).

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

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We definitely don't have the snowpack Rockford has, but overall the ground remains covered in an average of probably 2" of snow/sleet with only a few patches of grass here and there and some areas deeper (like most of my backyard). I'm grateful and it's been the only saving grace. 

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  On 1/19/2021 at 1:53 AM, McHenrySnow said:

Yes, we had two big snows in April 2019, but the month as a whole averaged above normal temp-wise. Snow in April, even several inches, lasts for a day or two and then it's 70º again. 

Spring in the Great Lakes isn't supposed to be sustained warmth. Never has been. 

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Winter in the southern Great Lakes is also never supposed to be sustained cold and snow on the ground from November-March lol. Toronto-Detroit-Chicago are supposed to see numerous thaws with temperatures normally getting into the 50s almost every year in winter. 

I understand April will (normally) never be wall-wall 70s and sun but January is never (normally) supposed to be wall-wall 15F heavy snow and lows of 0F. 

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  On 1/19/2021 at 2:38 AM, mississaugasnow said:

Winter in the southern Great Lakes is also never supposed to be sustained cold and snow on the ground from November-March lol. Toronto-Detroit-Chicago are supposed to see numerous thaws with temperatures normally getting into the 50s almost every year in winter. 

I understand April will (normally) never be wall-wall 70s and sun but January is never (normally) supposed to be wall-wall 15F heavy snow and lows of 0F. 

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Ummm......duh? 

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  On 1/19/2021 at 2:45 AM, McHenrySnow said:

even more off-topic, but what is the difference between "pro forecaster" and "meteorologist" on here? also, how do you get this recognition? 

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Basically, pro forecaster is someone who has a forecasting job but lacks a met degree.  Have to go through the admins to get either one.

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  On 1/18/2021 at 2:58 PM, michsnowfreak said:

Who is writing off next month?

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Me, already bailing back home on the 9th. Would be earlier but I am going on a roadtrip to Utah. I was getting excited watching the trends about a week ago, hopeful on the SSW but I think I know how the winter is going to pan out based on the crap we have been dealt last few years. Warm till Mid feb, a few storms. Then the snow melts with subfreezing highs with due to the sun angle in mid-late feb.

Then cold and snowy March to the beginning of May.

This is not a forecast, it is sure to happen because it seems to happen every year now :thumbsdown:


On a different note, I took a trip to northern michigan last weekend (up near grayling) and not even their small creeks had any ice on them. Also, they only had 6-8" OTG. Talk a bout crap.

Seems like you can write off December and most of Jan for most of the last 15 years and our only month that was any good has been February. Seems like we are losing that now.

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  On 1/19/2021 at 7:25 AM, LansingWeather said:

Me, already bailing back home on the 9th. Would be earlier but I am going on a roadtrip to Utah. I was getting excited watching the trends about a week ago, hopeful on the SSW but I think I know how the winter is going to pan out based on the crap we have been dealt last few years. Warm till Mid feb, a few storms. Then the snow melts with subfreezing highs with due to the sun angle in mid-late feb.

Then cold and snowy March to the beginning of May.

This is not a forecast, it is sure to happen because it seems to happen every year now :thumbsdown:


On a different note, I took a trip to northern michigan last weekend (up near grayling) and not even their small creeks had any ice on them. Also, they only had 6-8" OTG. Talk a bout crap.

Seems like you can write off December and most of Jan for most of the last 15 years and our only month that was any good has been February. Seems like we are losing that now.

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Thanks to "Modoki" everything in this warm earth era. This is a big reason why the GL's have warmed the most of any N Lat region in the CONUS. Seems whether it's a Modoki Nino or Modoki Nina, we get screwed the worst. Pretty soon, we'll be reading about "Modoki Neutral ENSO state". Just you watch. Snowmobile track racing is on life-support in our state. They actually race on ice and temps just refuse to cooperate. Ice sculpture events during "winter-fest" = forget it! Record Ice fishing rescues -> happening!

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  On 1/19/2021 at 12:04 PM, mimillman said:

idk guys...Sunday - Tuesday looks pretty good to me?

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it looks on the table...

liking the potential duration with multiple waves and a quasi stationary baroclinic zone

def not a widespread or spread the wealth setup, hope we can luck out for once and find our way into the fgen banding for once

it's nice to have a period to watch after what feels like 20 days of chasing dust mid winter

 

 

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  On 1/19/2021 at 12:31 PM, A-L-E-K said:

it looks on the table...

liking the potential duration with multiple waves and a quasi stationary baroclinic zone

def not a widespread or spread the wealth setup, hope we can luck out for once and find our way into the fgen banding for once

it's nice to have a period to watch after what feels like 20 days of chasing dust mid winter

 

 

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There will be a system. There will be mixing issues. 

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