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Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier
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Honestly I cannot remember the last time we had what I would consider an average Spring green up here. Most of the time it has run late than of course we had the ridiculous early in 2012. 
 
 I do want to caution that regardless of what kind of Winter it is the weather in March and April is the main factor for Spring green up.  Some of the region's most notoriously warm winters of years past had widespread reports of flowers blooming mid Winter, even some trees blossoming (1889-90, 1918-19, 1931-32), but March ans April cold snaps were all that was needed to halt any early Spring green up. Likewise, before 2012, by far the earliest spring Greenups we had seen were 1945 and again in 1946, due to big March torches. What was crazy about 1945 is that it came after a pretty severe winter (which in itself was rare for the meager winters of the 40s). So really what happens in spring is the main factor.

Yes but if we keep ice cover down on the lakes, keep minimal snow cover and keep the ground from freezing deep, warmups can be off to the races much easier in spring without worrying about massive back door fronts and wasting warm air masses to snowmelt and unthaw endeavors.


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3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Honestly I cannot remember the last time we had what I would consider an average Spring green up here. Most of the time it has run late than of course we had the ridiculous early in 2012. 

 

 I do want to caution that regardless of what kind of Winter it is the weather in March and April is the main factor for Spring green up.  Some of the region's most notoriously warm winters of years past had widespread reports of flowers blooming mid Winter, even some trees blossoming (1889-90, 1918-19, 1931-32), but March ans April cold snaps were all that was needed to halt any early Spring green up. Likewise, before 2012, by far the earliest spring Greenups we had seen were 1945 and again in 1946, due to big March torches. What was crazy about 1945 is that it came after a pretty severe winter (which in itself was rare for the meager winters of the 40s). So really what happens in spring is the main factor.

Ya, right now nothing will be blooming as even though it seems warmer its mostly the nighttime lows. Looking back at Toronto January so far and most days were in the mid 30s and lows in mid 20s. 

Im hoping we see 1-2 more legit snowstorms of at least 4-8 inches and some decent cold in the single digits and then crank the thermostat for March and April haha. 

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3 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

Ya, right now nothing will be blooming as even though it seems warmer its mostly the nighttime lows. Looking back at Toronto January so far and most days were in the mid 30s and lows in mid 20s. 

Im hoping we see 1-2 more legit snowstorms of at least 4-8 inches and some decent cold in the single digits and then crank the thermostat for March and April haha. 

I had tulips sprouting a few weeks ago. 

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52 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

Can't imagine the desire for an above normal spring. it's already going to be 80 + for three months straight, minimum. Move to Florida!

Mid March-Mid May around the Great Lakes might be the most depressing weather of the year. Any big time cold outbreak isn't winter legit its 42F with showers and wet snow flakes with higher terrain seeing 3-6". Its mud season and worst of all everyone just outside the immediate great lakes is enjoying 70s-80s like Missouri, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois  (away from the lakes). While MN, NY, PA, MI get non stop back door cold fronts. 

Its part of our climo and im used to it but thats why I want an above average spring haha. 

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17 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

Mid March-Mid May around the Great Lakes might be the most depressing weather of the year. Any big time cold outbreak isn't winter legit its 42F with showers and wet snow flakes with higher terrain seeing 3-6". Its mud season and worst of all everyone just outside the immediate great lakes is enjoying 70s-80s like Missouri, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois  (away from the lakes). While MN, NY, PA, MI get non stop back door cold fronts. 

Its part of our climo and im used to it but thats why I want an above average spring haha. 

Yeah, and I love it. 

I can't explain how much I hate summer. Spring is okay, but we don't ever have a real spring. It goes from winter to summer it seems like. 

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7 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

You'd have to have a winter for it to extend into April. Not to mention, it's next to impossible to have sustained cold and snow in April thanks to the sun angle and longer days alone. 

The last 3 years had crappy April and early May. I want winter over by April 1st.

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1 hour ago, mimillman said:

December is turning into November, January into December, February into January, March to February, and April to March. So it goes. Deep winter is disappearing but winter itself is becoming prolonged with dogsh*t events

i would definitely not call it a trend yet, but I also mentioned recently how since our epic winter stretch ended in 2015, winters actually seem to be getting longer from start to finish with a way too long period of weak sauce during the meat of winter. Different areas of the sub have received several October and may snowfalls in recent years.

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Just now, michsnowfreak said:

i would definitely not call it a trend yet, but I also mentioned recently how since our epic winter stretch ended in 2015, winters actually seem to be getting longer from start to finish with a way too long period of weak sauce during the meat of winter. Different areas of the sub have received several October and may snowfalls in recent years.

Snowed twice in May in downtown Chicago last year. We’ve had accumulating snowfalls multiple times per April the past two years in a row. Halloween snow seems to have happened twice in the past 3 years and Novembers have been cold with the exception of this past one. Only trouble is DJF

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15 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Snowed twice in May in downtown Chicago last year. We’ve had accumulating snowfalls multiple times per April the past two years in a row. Halloween snow seems to have happened twice in the past 3 years and Novembers have been cold with the exception of this past one. Only trouble is DJF

This is no joke. Last Winter Chicago had a white Halloween, and Detroit had a white mothers day. It was the very end of mothers day but it still counted lol.

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14 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Snowed twice in May in downtown Chicago last year. We’ve had accumulating snowfalls multiple times per April the past two years in a row. Halloween snow seems to have happened twice in the past 3 years and Novembers have been cold with the exception of this past one. Only trouble is DJF

It only snowed on Halloween 2019. May 2020 was slightly above normal temp-wise and April 2020 was only slightly below temp-wise. 

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Just now, McHenrySnow said:

Yes, we had two big snows in April 2019, but the month as a whole averaged above normal temp-wise. Snow in April, even several inches, lasts for a day or two and then it's 70º again. 

Spring in the Great Lakes isn't supposed to be sustained warmth. Never has been. 

That’s not my point

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Snowed twice in May in downtown Chicago last year. We’ve had accumulating snowfalls multiple times per April the past two years in a row. Halloween snow seems to have happened twice in the past 3 years and Novembers have been cold with the exception of this past one. Only trouble is DJF

Add in that April 2018 was the 4th coldest April on record.


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I’m not arguing that April should feature sustained cold and snow, I’m arguing that it has featured abnormal, unseasonal snows the past 2 years, along with May and October.

Forgot to add in my last comment that 5 of the top 20 snowiest April’s have occurred since 2000...and 2018/2019/2020 are 3 of those 5.


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3 minutes ago, mimillman said:

That’s not my point

no question the past few winters have had early snows, and late season snows, while the heart of winter has been blah to say the least. The past two April's have had sizable snowfalls and they are not the norm. The previous snows this late that were memorable i believe was 1961 and 1972. Accumulating snows in excess of 2" after March 15 are rare. 

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